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Putin Should Have Known His Invasion Would Fail [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2023-07-25
Why did Putin invade Ukraine, and how could Russian Intelligence (no intended irony) underestimated Ukraine's military so badly? An article published in Foreign Policy magazine examines the reasons behind Russia’s biggest military blunder since the 1979 invasion of Afghanistan. The article is behind a paywall, but here’s the gist of the series of errors that led to this tragedy:
Putin had a distorted view of Ukraine’s legitimacy as an independent nation Ukraine wasn’t a real country and had no separate culture apart from Russia Putin’s intelligence and policy machinery told him only what he wanted to hear A lightening strike would quickly topple Zelensky’s government within days, and the fighting over within 2 weeks
The Ukrainian people would cheerfully free themselves from the decadent West and willingly embrace Russia
67% of Ukrainians distrusted the president, and 40% would not defend Ukraine
People can have incorrect perceptions, but when confronted with facts (usually) change their mind. However, this didn’t happen pre-invasion, even when the perceptions were wildly wrong. So how does a whole nation go to war with incorrect, easily disprovable, false facts?
The FSB (nee KGB) believed their careers depended on finding facts that supported Putin’s view. They didn’t make up the facts, since that would in itself be a career killer. Instead they surveyed people in eastern Ukraine (sample bias), with questions tilted towards the desired answers (confirmation bias) Ukrainian informants (recruited by Russian Intelligence) were motivated to keep the money flowing by providing politically palatable reports Contradictory statements were buried, lest they upset the Kremlin They missed the fact that the 2014 invasion of Crimea: Invigorated Ukraine’s sense of national identity, distinct from being a client state of Russia
Created the impetus to build a much more powerful, competent military than Russia faced in 2014
Putin could — and should — have known his invasion would fail. Instead, because of a sycophant, career advancement Intelligence culture, “Putin threw the cream of his military into an increasingly vainglorious cause and has set back his country decades”.
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[1] Url:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/25/2183313/-Putin-Should-Have-Known-His-Invasion-Would-Fail
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