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President Biden Defeated Trumpism Before And He Will Do It Again [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-07-23

President Donald Trump remains the prohibitive favorite to win the Republican primaries, a result which would result in a rehashing of the 2020 presidential election, pitting President Joe Biden against Trump. President Biden was elected because he was the one man the Democratic party believed could defeat Trumpism. Trumpism remains a vital and disruptive force in American life, and its standard bearer remains wildly popular within the Republican party, a party that can now only be described as Trumpian. Defeating Trumpism, a philosophy of white nationalism, anti-LGBTQ rights, and nostalgic patriarchy, is the great fight of our time, and President Biden remains the one candidate who can marshall enough votes to defeat it.

Trump Will Win the Primaries

Despite a period where Florida’s Gov. Ron DeSantis seemed as if he could wrestle leadership of the Republican party from Trump, today, it seems clear that Trump’s hold on the party has actually grown stronger. DeSantis’ camp is considering a reboot , amid accusations that his campaign is amateurish . Despite a potential third indictment , or rather, because of a third indictment, Trump has become an avatar of Republican conspiracy theories about a Deep State and its machinations against Republicans.

Source: FiveThirtyEight

We should ignore any possibility that he will be behind bars by the time of the election, because Trump will likely renounce his right to a speedy trial and instead choose to kick his federal cases down the road, and bet on winning the election and pardoning himself, although the legality of this is debatable .

We have long passed the stage at which we wonder how half the country can so reliably vote for a man like Trump. Polarization defines the politics of our age, and regardless of what Trump says or does, he will remain the standard bearer of the party.

Pres. Biden is a Slight Favorite

Given the polarization of our age, polling is very tight, and there is no clear consensus over who the favorite is. RacetotheWH, which averages out polling from different institutions, gives the president a 1.4% lead over Trump, with 13.8% of voters undecided. While gratifying, this does, as I have said, show just how polarized the country is, and how important turnout will be to winning in 2024.

With NoLabels organizing for a third party bid for the presidency, a bid that is expected to peel away more Democratic than Republican voters, it will be consoling for the Biden camp to hear that a new Monmouth poll shows that even if NoLabels fields Senator Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) as its presidential candidate, with Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman as the vice presidential candidate, the president would still win the 2024 election.

If Democrats Turn Up, President Biden Will Win

Republicans are a declining minority in the country. This is a party that has rejected diversity, that wants to roll back the advances of minorities, women and the LGBTQ community, and whose commitment to tax cuts for the rich is one of its most stable ideologies. Republicans have struggled to grow, and will continue to do so. In the history of our country, the Republicans are the only party that has ever managed to win an election without winning the popular vote. Trump himself did not win the popular vote when he won the presidency.

There are no indications that Trump has a plurality or majority of voters on his side. The only way Trump wins is by successfully exploiting the Republican party’s Electoral College advantage to take the White House. Indeed, even though Trump lost in 2020, the Electoral College’s Republican leaning grew, and Democrats now need 52% of the vote in order to have a 50/50 chance of winning in 2024!

Source: David Shor

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/23/2182974/-President-Biden-Defeated-Trumpism-Before-And-He-Will-Do-It-Again

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