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The Ukraine Offensive is Stalling for the lack of Heavy Weapons. [1]

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Date: 2023-07-22

Many Western experts will say the Ukraine offensive is not going as planned. It's not a complete failure but it does not have the breakouts we saw in the Ukrainians offensive operation in 2022. The Russians are doing a better job this time around and are out performing western expectations. Ukraine is attacking in highly contested areas and because of this the war is turning into a grinding slug match which is the type of war Russia wants to fight. Russia has 5 times the population of Ukraine so they can call up more soldiers over time then Ukraine has the ability too. The Russia’s have a larger Air Force which at times has limited Ukrainians advances but most will say is being under used in the conflict because Russia has never been able to sustain air superiority over the Ukraine. Western fighters would help but based on the experts it will take years to rectify this. The Russians destruction of the dam was a setback and delayed Ukraine's advance by limiting the lines of advance. Ukraine is now grinding away on the Russians fortifications and taking casualties they can not sustain in a protracted war.

Ukraine's 2nd attack on the Kerch Bridge I feel was a reach at this time. Don't get me wrong it's affecting Russia but why now? What other offensive strike did it coordinate with? Why only damage the bridge and not take the bridge out completely? I believe this limited attack was a move to show that Ukraine's military is still relevant and can project attacks on Russia. It was a small win but limited in effect over time. If it would have been used with other coordinated strikes and attacks the effect would have compounded and been more effective at limiting the Russians.

Russia is not the only one affecting the outcome of the war but the West has done this by limiting the number of heavy weapons to Ukraine. A few dozen tanks and artillery systems at a time with a few hundred IFV has allowed Ukraine to build a few Assault Brigades but as we have seen these units are not able to force a major breakout like we saw last in 2022. My take this is due to the limited numbers of western equipment the Ukraine military is reluctant to commit these assets to a major assault with the fear of not being able to get replacements for their losses. Russia has dug in and is holding on to every inch of land grinding this into a deadlock. The longer this drags out the more time Russia has to call up and train troops as well as refit the thousands of armored vehicles from Russian armor storage parks. As we have recently seen the Russians attacked on the Kreminna Axis with a hundred tanks and armored vehicles supported with over a thousand infantry in this counter attack. Ukraine was able to stop this counter attack but this ties Ukrainian troops and equipment from attacking elsewhere.

To break this deadlock, Ukraine needs to get a large injection of heavy equipment. They need 300 to 400 western MBT tanks and 800 to 1200 western IFV and supporting equipment to make a real impact. This will ease the Ukraine reluctance to commit western assets to a major assault. The west is trying to get OLD Leopards 1 and two dozen M1 Abrams to Ukraine later this year but this is not enough. The Leopard 1 tanks have poor armor with a small 105mm main gun that would struggle to take out upgraded T-72 and T-80 tanks with no chance against T-90’s compared to the rest of the western tanks being sent to Ukraine armed with much more powerful 120mm guns. The issue is that EU & NATO do not have the tanks and IFV or to spare unless they drastically cut into their reserves and none of the nations have shown the willingness to make this level of sacrifice. Making a new MBT and IFV will take Years, So who has MBTs and IVF just sitting around?

The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan might have what is needed sitting in storage! They have almost 300 Khalid MBT which are upgraded British Chieftains with Rolls-Royce CV12 1,200 hp engine and 400 Al-Hussein which are Challenger 1 MK3 tanks. These are good British tanks and would be more than a match for T-72 and T-80 tanks which is the common majority of what Russia is fielding in the Ukraine. The Khalid (Chieftain) and the Challenger 1 tanks share the same Rolls-Royce CV12 1,200 hp engine and crew layouts, simplifying training and logistics for the Ukraine units that would operate them. The main difference between these tanks is the upgraded armor protection that the Challenger 1 has over the Chieftain (Khalid). The bad news is there might be an issue with ammo. I don't think anyone has made Royal Ordnance L11 120mm L/55 rifled ammo and barrels in decades. The British L11 120mm L55 gun uses a 2 part ammo for rifled guns that has only been used by the British and a very few of its allies that they sold the Chieftain and Challenger 1 to. Tank gun Barrels are only good for a few hundred rounds before they have to be replaced. I believe this was why these tanks were phased out of service from the lack of 120mm rifled barrels and ammo. Jordan experimented with up-gunning the Royal Ordnance L11 120mm rifled gun with a RUAG 120mm L50 compatible with the Rheinmetall Rh-120 smoothbore tank gun. This was done using the Challenger 1 cradle and upgrading the Fire controls. This would be a very feasible upgrade with a number of nations around the world that make Rheinmetall Rh-120 120mm smoothbore barrels and compatible ammo. These tanks would give Ukraine’s the punch to break through the deadlock the Russians have them in.

Jordan could also have 300+ Ratel IFV which is a South African designed wheel armored vehicle based on German modified MAN truck chassis. South Africa, who has not been friendly to Ukraine regarding the war, has another 600+ in storage. Why the Ratel IFV because it's based on a 6x6 German MAN truck chassis and it's drive-line although older it is German and it would be easier for NATO and EU nations to refit these vehicles then other options. The Ratel IFV has shown over the years to be easy to operate by conscript crews where it has gone up against BTR 60, 70's as well as BMP 1, 2. It's mine resistant and is easily up-gradable with a variety of weapon systems. Wheel combat vehicles based on commercial all-terrain truck chassis are becoming more common as recently seen in France with the adaption of the VBMR Griffon and EBRC Jaguar. This is a cost effect way to upgrade with the ability to produce replacements quickly. The Ratel IFV would allow Europe to get a large number of wheeled IFV into Ukrainians hands very quickly. This would provide a number of Ukraine units more flexibility of moving on the battlefield.

So does the NATO and the EU need to see if a deal can be made with Jordan and South Africa for this equipment or do they dig into there limited reserves to continue to support Ukraine in this war?

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/22/2182659/-The-Ukraine-Offensive-is-Stalling-for-the-lack-of-Heavy-Weapons

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