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Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: As Trump awaits indictment and DeSantis sinks, Dark Brandon rises [1]
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Date: 2023-07-21
Helen Lewis/The Atlantic:
Before his stump speeches in his reelection campaign last year, Ron DeSantis liked to play a video montage that showed him being gratuitously rude to reporters at press conferences. It was petty and graceless—and warmly received by the Florida governor’s base. At a DeSantis rally in Melbourne, Florida, last fall, I watched the video from an elevated press pen alongside a gaggle of local reporters. The disconnect between the unflagging politeness that DeSantis’s young volunteers showed the press corps and the ostentatious douchebaggery of the candidate was stark.
x 2024 National Republican Primary
• Trump — 48% (+36)
• Ramaswamy — 12%
• DeSantis — 12%
• Christie — 5%
• Scott — 5%
• Pence — 4%
• Haley — 3%
• Hutchinson — 1%
• Undecided — 10%
⦿ Kaplan Strategies | July 17-18
⦿ n= 800 LV | MoE: ±3.5%
https://t.co/K5Oljeq6zz pic.twitter.com/x7RIVnFLxk — InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 20, 2023
Republican presidential hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy, who’s got the money to advertise, is all over the place in the polls. Meanwhile:
x Monmouth poll, July 12-17, national RVs
Definitely/probably vote for:
Biden 47
Trump 40
Biden 37
"Third-party ticket" 30
Trump 28
Biden 40
Trump 34
Manchin-Huntsman 16
https://t.co/P4HnOyZQdt — Bill Scher (@billscher) July 20, 2023
x Quinnipiac '24 GOP poll:
Trump 54%
DeSantis 25%
Haley 4%
Pence 4%
Christie 3%
Scott 3%
Ramaswamy 2%
Hurd/Suarez/Burgum/Hutchinson/Elder 0%
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Dems
Biden 71%
Kennedy 14%
Williamson 7%
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General Election
Biden 49%
Trump 44%
https://t.co/DQqLOF6hnc — Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) July 19, 2023
Dan Pfeiffer/”The Message Box” on Substack:
Is Ron DeSantis's Campaign Already Over? The Florida Governor has very little in common with the small handful of candidates who have bounced back from epic flops Since his peak, DeSantis has steadily dropped in the polls, become a national joke for his awkward encounters with voters, and given the worst campaign announcement in history. In the I&I/TIPP poll, DeSantis lost five points in the last month and is now down 39 points to Trump.
Will Bunch/Philadelphia Inquirer:
Political refugees: Why a family fleeing Ron DeSantis’ Florida chose Swarthmore Why two top Fla. Dems fled for a Philly suburb, joining an exodus of political refugees from Gov. Ron DeSantis' increasingly authoritarian state. “I didn’t want her to grow up thinking that was normal,” said Stacey of what Florida has become under DeSantis. “When it was just Sanjay and I, we wanted to fight. We wanted to do our very best to transform Florida and make it a better place. But the cost for a two-year-old is far too high to be able to do that. She cannot live thinking people hate each other like that.”
x Not guaranteed to be predicted etc etc but Democrats are posting very impressive numbers in special elections so far this cycle (sound familiar?)
https://t.co/d1Bg9F2sUx https://t.co/sRJL56MAgh — G Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) July 19, 2023
Asawin Suebsaeng and Adam Rawnsley/Rolling Stone:
Private GOP Polling Data Reveals Why DeSantis’ Campaign Is Sputtering
The Florida governor wanted to unseat Trump in part by harnessing voters' rage over Covid and vaccines. Internal data reveals that's a losing bet Six different Republican operatives, campaign officials, and pollsters described or shared with Rolling Stone internal data and surveys they’d conducted or reviewed last and this year. Some of these sources are Trump-aligned, some support DeSantis, and others back different 2024 GOP presidential hopefuls. Across the board in the surveys, Covid-related policy — including vaccines and vaccine mandates — did not rank as an item of high concern for voters. That held true even when voters were specifically given the option of Covid policy when asked about their concerns. Since the middle of last year, Covid-related policy did not show up in conservatives’ top 10, or top 15, issues in any form, leading various campaigns and consultants to declare it, for the most part, unuseful.
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