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Kansas State House Districts (2024): HD 8, HD 16, HD 20, HD 28, HD 48 [1]

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Date: 2023-07-20

Today, I am going to look at five more Kansas house districts: HD 8, HD 16, HD 20, HD 28, and HD 48, all based in Overland Park, a Kansas City suburb in Johnson County.

Kansas House District 8

KS HD 8 is based at the southwestern end of Overland Park. Like the Kansas City suburbs in general, HD 8 moved heavily towards the Dems under the pre-2022 boundaries, having gone from supporting Mitt Romney by a very large 39-point margin to supporting Donald Trump by a considerably narrower margin of between 16 and 17 points in 2016 and an even narrower margin of about 4 points in 2020. The district wasn’t competitive at all at the state house level in 2016, with Republican Patty Markley winning the open seat by about 45.5 points, but was considerably closer in 2018, with Republican Chris Croft winning the open seat by just over 13 points. Croft ran unopposed in 2020. The 2022 redistricting made HD 8 a few points redder, with Trump’s margin expanding to just under 8 points. Croft was reelected in 2022 by about 9 points, underperforming his 2018 margin, despite the new district being more favorable to the GOP. Croft should be favored this cycle, but it seems reasonable to expect a competitive race, given the progress Dems have made here. I’m classifying HD 8 as Lean Republican.

Kansas House District 16

KS HD 16 is located directly north of HD 8. HD 16 swung strongly towards the Dems at the presidential level under the pre-2022 boundaries, as it went from supporting Romney by nearly 14 points to supporting Hillary Clinton by a narrow margin of less than 2 points and Joe Biden by a larger margin of between 14 and 15 points. The district had been Republican held until 2016, when Democrat Cindy Holscher flipped the seat, as she defeated Republican incumbent Amanda Grosserode by between 11 and 12 points. Holscher easily won reelection in 2018 by just under 18 points, but the 2020 state house race was extremely competitive, with Democrat Linda Featherston winning the open seat by a razor-thin margin of less than 100 votes (less than half a percentage point). The 2022 redistricting made HD 16 several points redder, with Biden’s margin shrinking to about 8 points. Featherston was able to hold onto the seat in 2022, winning by a somewhat competitive margin of about 8.5 points, running roughly on-par with Biden (if not slightly ahead of him). The district should be competitive this cycle, but Featherston should have an edge, especially given the favorable trends for Dems. I’m classifying HD 16 as Lean Democrat.

Kansas House District 20

KS HD 20 is located on the state’s eastern border with Missouri. Under the pre-2022 boundaries, HD 20 had trended very heavily towards the Dems at the presidential level, having gone from supporting Romney by a very large margin of about 23 points to narrowly supporting Clinton by just under 2 points and Biden by a larger margin of between 13 and 14 points. At the state house level, the GOP easily held onto the district in 2016, with Republican Jan Kessinger winning the open seat by nearly 30 points, after having defeated the incumbent Republican in the primary. In 2018, Kessinger was easily reelected by a little more than 20 points. However, in 2020, Kessinger lost the Republican primary to a more extreme challenger and Democrat Mari-Lynn Poskin was able to flip the district, narrowly winning the open seat by a little more than 3 points. The 2022 redistricting made HD 20 very slightly bluer, with Biden’s margin expanding by about a percentage point. The 2022 state house race wasn’t especially competitive, with Poskin being reelected by between 11 and 12 points. Poskin should be heavily favored, but the district still warrants notice, given its ancestral GOP nature. I’m classifying HD 20 as Likely Democrat.

Kansas House District 28

KS HD 28 is located immediately to the south of HD 20, also on the state’s eastern border with Missouri. Again, HD 28 swung very heavily towards the Dems under the pre-2022 boundaries, having gone from easily supporting Romney by about 35 points to supporting Trump in 2016 by a considerably narrower 10-point margin to narrowly supporting Biden by about 2.5 points. Republican Jerry Lunn won the open seat by about 15 points in 2012, underperforming Romney by about 20 points, and ran unopposed in 2014 and 2016. Republican Kellie Warren won the open seat by a reasonably comfortable 12-point margin in 2018, having defeated Lunn in the primary. The 2020 state house race was closer, with Republican Carl Turner winning the open seat by a little more than 6 points. HD 28 became slightly bluer as a result of the 2022 redistricting, with Biden’s margin expanding to nearly 4 points. Turner very narrowly held onto the seat in 2022, winning by less than 100 votes. The district should be a top pick-up opportunity for Dems this cycle, given how close the most recent state house was. I’m classifying HD 28 as a Toss Up.

Kansas House District 48

KS HD 48 is located in-between HD 20 and HD 29. Like many of the surrounding districts, HD 48 had moved rapidly to the left under the pre-2022 boundaries, going from supporting Romney by around 26 points to narrowly supporting Trump by less than 5 points in 2016 to supporting Biden by just under 10 points. At the state house level, Republican Marvin Kleeb held onto the seat in 2016, easily winning reelection by between 16 and 17 points, but Democrat David Benson was able to flip the seat in 2018, as he very narrowly defeated appointed Republican incumbent Abraham Rafie by less than a percentage point. The 2020 state house race was also very competitive, with Democrat Jennifer Day, who had been appointed to replace Benson, winning by a razor-thin margin of less than 100 votes (less than half a percentage point). The 2022 redistricting made HD 48 a few points redder, with Biden’s margin shrinking to less than 7 points. Dem Dan Osman, who had been appointed to replace Day, narrowly held onto the seat in 2022, winning the open race by less than 3 points. The district should be competitive, given how close the previous races were. I’m classifying HD 49 as a Toss Up.

Thanks to cnanalysis (for the 2020 presidential results of the new districts), and Daily Kos Elections (for the presidential results of the old districts).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/20/2182142/-Kansas-State-House-Districts-2024-HD-8-HD-16-HD-20-HD-28-HD-48

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