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Ukraine Invasion Day 512: counteroffensive operations made gains in 3 sectors [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2023-07-19
Russia established a naval blockade of Ukraine immediately after the end of the "grain agreement", 12 cargo ships are stuck in the Ukrainian ports of Odesa and Mykolaiv
Ukraine is one of the world’s major exporters of wheat, corn, sunflower seeds and vegetable oil. It has exported 32.9 million tons of grain and other food under the initiative, according to U.N. data. Under the agreement, ships are permitted to pass by Russian naval vessels that kept other vessels from using Ukraine’s ports since the start of Russia’s war. The ships are inspected off the coast of Istanbul, in part to ensure they are not carrying weapons. The effects of the suspended grain deal were quickly apparent. It rattled wheat markets, seesawing prices and exposing vulnerable countries in Africa and the global south to the prospect of a new round of food insecurity. www.nytimes.com/... Russian forces launched an extensive missile and drone attack against port and grain infrastructure in southern Ukraine on July 19 likely to further emphasize Russia’s objections to the renewal of the Black Sea grain deal and hinder Ukraine’s ability to export grain. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted strikes using 16 Kalibr sea-based cruise missiles, eight Kh-22 anti-ship missiles, six Onyx cruise missiles, one Kh-59 guided air missile, and 32 Iranian-made Shahed drones. [1] Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces predominantly targeted civilian and military infrastructure in Odesa Oblast with Kh-22 and Onyx missiles and that Ukrainian forces shot down 37 air targets including 13 Kalibrs, one Kh-59 missile, and 23 Shaheds. [2] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russian forces deliberately targeted the infrastructure necessary for executing the Black Sea grain deal in Odesa, Zhytomyr, and other oblasts. [3] The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces struck grain and oil terminals and damaged tanks and loading equipment. [4] Ukrainian Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Mykola Solskyi reported that Russian strikes destroyed 60,000 tons of grain in the Chornomorsk port in Odesa Oblast on the night of July 19. [5] The Southern Operational Command added that Russian strikes also targeted coastal areas in Mykolaiv Oblast and some infrastructure in Kherson City. [6] Spokesperson of the Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Captain of the First Rank Nataliya Humenyuk stated that the Russian July 19 strikes “happened virtually simultaneously,” and that Russian forces likely attempted to overwhelm the Ukrainian air defense systems. [7] Ukrainian Air Forces Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated that this attack was the most intense missile and drone attack on Odesa Oblast since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022. [8] www.understandingwar.org/...
Following a reestablishment of a ‘no sailing zone’, Russia could attack ships sailing to/from Odesa. The most obvious way is with surface warships. Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has a number of warships including some of the smaller missile corvettes, which could be used. A merchant ship is no match for any of these. We would expect the merchant ships to adjust their route to hug the Ukrainian controlled coast and then use Romanian territorial waters. This would limit the Russian ships’ ability to use their anti-ship missiles so they would have to close to within cannon range. This would however bring them within the kill zones of Ukraine’s Harpoon and Neptune anti-ship missiles. Artillery, aircraft and maritime drones could also attack them. What would be much harder for Ukraine to counter would be submarines. The Northern Black Sea is relatively shallow which is not optimal for Russia’s five KILO Class submarines. However, with Ukraine lacking anti-submarine weapons, there is little they could do while these are submerged. And a torpedo is the ultimate ship-sinking weapon. Russia could also leverage its air dominance over the northern Black Sea to launch fighter-bomber attacks. The use of BACKFIRE bombers seems less likely. Air attacks could be effective but, compared to submarine attacks, are relatively high risk. Possibly this could force Ukraine to shift its air defenses however which might be advantageous to Russia. Russia also has formidable Bastion-P and Bal anti-ship missile batteries on Crimea. These are less obvious unless the merchant ships continue to sail in open waters, but cannot be overlooked. They also deter any Ukrainian efforts to escort the merchant ships. www.hisutton.com/... Agriculture Minister Mykola Solskyi said a "considerable amount" of export infrastructure was out of operation. Russia has pulled out of a deal guaranteeing safe passage for exports across the Black Sea. Later on Wednesday Russia's President Putin accused the West of using the grain deal as "political blackmail". He added he would consider rejoining the international agreement, in place since last summer, only "if all principles under which Russia agreed to participate in the deal are fully taken into account and fulfilled". His comments came shortly after Russia's defence ministry declared that from midnight on Wednesday night (21:00 GMT), any ships heading to Ukrainian ports would be viewed as potential carriers of military cargo and party to the conflict. Some north-western and south-eastern areas of the Black Sea would be temporarily dangerous for shipping, it added. Russia began targeting Ukraine's ports in the early hours of Tuesday within hours of its withdrawal from the grain deal. More strikes followed overnight into Wednesday, targeting grain terminals and port infrastructure in Odesa and further down the Black Sea coast in Chornomorsk, two of the three ports that were included in the export deal. At least 12 civilians, including a nine-year-old boy, were wounded during the attacks, which also caused damage to blocks of flats, military officials said. www.bbc.com/... x i am not telling anyone what to do but as a former ADA guy i would suggest that ukr forward deploy avengers (and hawks later) on barges. the barges could be filled with something that would not easily sink a with GPS jammers and chaff launchers could protect themselves.
this… pic.twitter.com/9go334vjuy — david D. (@secretsqrl123) July 19, 2023 x ⚡️ @mod_russia:
❗️With the Black Sea Grain Initiative expired, all vessels heading for Ukrainian ports via the Black Sea will be regarded as potential carriers of military cargo as of 12 AM (Msk) July 20, 2023.
🔗
https://t.co/m2OLoSmE80 pic.twitter.com/wNlkjRcx8z — MFA Russia 🇷🇺 (@mfa_russia) July 19, 2023 x Spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council, Adam Hodge stated today that they have received Intelligence that Russian Naval Forces have installed Sea Mines on the approach to Ukrainian Ports in an attempt to Sink a Commercial Ship and place the Blame on Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/5PmVWgXwYo — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) July 19, 2023
A Barrage on Odesa : Explosions thundered above as a day after damaged an important Russian bridge linking the occupied Crimean Peninsula to mainland Russia. Explosions thundered above as Russia targeted the city with missiles and drones a day after an apparent Ukrainian strike damaged
Counteroffensive: Early in the campaign, Ukraine lost as much as 20% of its weapons and armor. The rate and commanders shifted tactics. But that improvement also hides some grim realities. Early in the campaign, Ukraine lost as much as 20% of its weapons and armor. The rate dropped as the campaign slowed and commanders shifted tactics. But that improvement also
A Minefield: Interviews with commanders and soldiers fighting along the front indicate the slow progress in the counteroffensive comes down to one major problem: Russian land mines. Interviews with commanders and soldiers fighting along the front indicate the slow progress in the counteroffensive comes down to one major problem: Key Takeaways: Russian forces launched an extensive missile and drone attack against port and grain infrastructure in southern Ukraine on July 19 likely to further emphasize Russia’s objections to the renewal of the Black Sea grain deal and hinder Ukraine’s ability to export grain.
The South African Presidential Office announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend the BRICS summit in-person in Johannesburg in August 2023.
An explosion at a Russian training ground in occupied Kirovskyi Raion (Islam Terek Raion), southeastern Crimea, disrupted the Russian use of the Tavrida highway that connects eastern Crimea to Sevastopol on July 19.
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 19 and made gains in these areas.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin and reportedly Wagner Commander Dmitry Utkin greeted Wagner fighters at the new Wagner base near Asipovichy, Belarus, on July 18.
Russian sources claimed that Wagner will continue to operate abroad in African countries, although Prigozhin’s involvement in these activities remains unclear.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to display his knowledge of Russian history at odd moments, this time appearing to warn against the possibility of revolution in Russia.
Russian authorities opened a case against an affiliate of the ultranationalist Angry Patriots Club for discrediting Russian forces, prompting the Angry Patriots Club to make explicit demands of Russian officials.
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Kupyansk area, near Kreminna, in the Bakhmut area, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front and made gains near Bakhmut.
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, in the Bakhmut area, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front, and in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia oblast area. They made marginal gains along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front and reportedly made limited advances in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia oblast area.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia area and western Zaporizhia Oblast and made reportedly made gains in both sectors of the front.
The Russian State Duma adopted on July 19 a law on the first reading and “in general” that allows the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) to have heavy military equipment.
The Ukrainian Crimean-based “Atesh” partisan group conducted another successful attack on a Russian military convoy in occupied Kherson Oblast on July 14. www.understandingwar.org/...
x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - JUL 19
Troop losses below 7-day average, equipment slightly above
REPORTED:
470 troop losses ⬇
7-day troop average: 564 ⬇
Equipment losses: $75M ⬆
70 landbased losses ⬇
7-day average: 67 ⬆
📈
https://t.co/xWCAb1ZnXj pic.twitter.com/O7D4uK0rxX — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦
[email protected] (@ragnarbjartur) July 19, 2023
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line and did not make confirmed advances on July 19. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces made advances northeast of Kupyansk. [50] The Russian MoD claimed that Russian units advanced more than one kilometer in depth and two kilometers in width in the Kupyansk direction and captured the Movchanove railway station near Lyman Pershyi (11km northeast of Kupyansk). [51] Other Russian sources claimed that Russian forces took control of the Movchanove railway station near Lyman Pershyi as well as positions near Masyutivka (13km northeast of Kupyansk) and Synkivka (8km northeast of Kupyansk). [52] ...Former Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Interior Minister Vitaly Kiselev claimed that heavy fighting continues near Synkivka. [54] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on Bakhmut’s northern and southern flanks on July 19 and made gains in some areas. Geolocated footage published on July 19 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced west of Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut). [67] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations north and south of Bakhmut City and forced Russian forces to retreat from positions northeast of Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut). [68] … Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks in the Bakhmut area on July 19 and did not make any confirmed gains. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Bohdanivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut). [73] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes) Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area and made advances in the area as of July 19. Geolocated footage published on July 18 shows that Ukrainian forces advanced north of Staromayorske (9km south of Velyka Novosilka). [85] … The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces achieved success in the Velyka Novosilka-Staromayorske (up to 9km south of Velyka Novosilka) and Novosilka-Staromayorske (up to 10km southwest and 9km south of Velyka Novosilka) directions and have established control over new unspecified positions. [87] Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Major Valerii Shershen reported that Ukrainian assault units conducted a significant number of offensive actions in the Velyka Novosilka-Staromayorske direction. [88] Shershen stated that Russian forces are losing fire control in the Staromayorske area and that this is a vector of Ukrainian advance in the Berdyansk. www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/...
The Pentagon announced a new $1.3 billion package of long-term military aid to Ukraine on Wednesday, including four air defense systems and an undisclosed number of drones. The new assistance comes on the heels of a meeting Tuesday by defense and military leaders from around the globe to discuss ongoing efforts to give Ukraine the weapons it needs in its battle to retake territory seized by Russian forces. Included in the aid, which is being provided under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, will be funding for four National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System, or NASAMS, and munitions for them, as well as Phoenix Ghost and Switchblade drones. post.news/...
x “More demanding standards have been set & relaxed depending on the geostrategic circumstances, & those geostrategic circumstances argue for having given Ukraine a more morale-boosting prospect of eventual membership.” A fine piece from @KoriSchake
https://t.co/a4Nc9BbS3F — Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) July 19, 2023
Are we missing the essence of the Russia-Ukraine war? We are waiting for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to break through the Russian front and recover Ukrainian territory, but perhaps the real drama lies elsewhere. Vladimir Putin caused Russia’s war on Ukraine. He will never agree to withdraw his troops from Ukraine unless he is defeated. If the war can only be settled if Putin is ousted, isn’t it better if Putin is defeated by his own in Russia than the numerous Ukrainian soldiers who have given and continue to give their lives for what is essentially a Russian issue? Sensible Russian liberals, such as Leonid Gozman and Viktor Shenderovich, are calling for Russia to capitulate for its own sake as Germany and Japan did in 1945. The Yevgeny Prigozhin revolt of June 23-24 showed that the Russian homeland is virtually undefended, since Putin has sent nearly all of his real troops and arms to Ukraine. Apparently, it is better to attack Russia proper than the fortified and landmine-saturated occupied territories in Ukraine. Prigozhin’s revolt was a coup attempt. After a failed coup attempt, strong regimes, such as Erdogan’s in Turkey or Maduro’s in Venezuela, clamp down heavily on those responsible for the putsch. On the contrary, Putin displayed his weakness by holding a meeting in the Kremlin with the 35 leaders of the coup. If a failed coup is not seriously punished, a more serious coup often follows. That weakness is likely to be fatal for Putin. www.kyivpost.com/...
x Looking back at 9 years of Ukraine coverage, @gullivercragg admits it was obvious that Russia ran the puppet “republics” in Donbas, yet int'l media played along with the Russian ruse. Could that have been avoided? A candid discussion on @LvivMediaForum
https://t.co/lkgpSoEP2B — Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) July 19, 2023
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https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/19/2182283/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-512-counteroffensive-operations-made-gains-in-3-sectors
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