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Kansas State House Districts (2024): HD 85, HD 87, HD 88, HD 92, HD 95 [1]

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Date: 2023-07-19

Today, I am looking at five more Kansas house districts: HD 85, HD 87, HD 88, HD 92, and HD 95, all largely based in Sedgewick County, home to Wichita.

Kansas House District 85

KS HD 85 encompasses northeastern Wichita, as well as surrounding areas outside the city. Under the pre-2022 boundaries, HD 85 was a Republican-leaning district that moved several points towards the Dems at the presidential level, having gone from supporting Mitt Romney by between 29 and 30 points to supporting Donald Trump by about 19 points in 2016 and a narrower 11-point margin in 2020. At the state house level, the district featured a somewhat competitive race in 2018, with appointed incumbent Republican Michael Capps winning by 8 points, but it wasn’t competitive at all in 2020, with Republican Patrick Penn winning the open seat by nearly 20 points. The 2022 redistricting made HD 85 a few points bluer, with Trump’s 2020 margin shrinking to between 6 and 7 points. The 2022 state house race wasn’t all that close, though, with Penn being reelected by 14 points. Penn should be fairly safe this cycle, but the district is worth keeping an eye on, given the somewhat close 2020 presidential result and the overall favorable trends for Dems. I’m classifying HD 85 as Likely Republican.

Kansas House District 87

KS HD 87 is located immediately south of HD 85 and covers eastern Wichita and surrounding suburbs. HD 87 swung heavily to the left under the pre-2022 boundaries, as it went from easily supporting Romney by over 23 points to supporting Trump by 11.5 points in 2016 and by a narrow margin of less than 3 points in 2020. Until 2020, the district wasn’t competitive at the state house level, with Democrats not even contesting the seat in 2018 and the GOP winning the prior races by double digits. The 2020 state house race was somewhat competitive, with Republican Susan Estes winning the open seat by just under 9 points. HD 87 became slightly redder as a result of the 2022 redistricting, with Trump’s 2020 margin expanding to a little more than 4 points. Estes won reelection in 2022 by between 11 and 12 points, a slight improvement over her 2020 margin, which isn’t too surprising. Estes should be heavily favored, but the district still warrants notice, given how favorable the trends for Dems have been. I’m classifying HD 87 as Likely Republican.

Kansas House District 88

KS HD 88 contains southeastern Wichita, as well as parts of Andover, a suburb located in adjacent Butler County. Under the pre-2022 boundaries, HD 88 had historically been a highly competitive district, with Barack Obama narrowly carrying it by less than 3 points in 2012 and Hillary Clinton carrying it by a similarly narrow margin of less than 4 points, However, the district moved quite a bit to the left recently, with Joe Biden carrying it by about 13 points. Democrat Elizabeth Bishop flipped the district in 2016, as she defeated Republican incumbent Joseph Scapa by a little more than 12 points. (Scapa had flipped the district back in 2014, when he defeated the Democrat incumbent by a razor-thin margin of less than a percentage point.) Bishop ran unopposed in both 2018 and 2020. The 2022 redistricting made HD 88 several points redder, with the district shifting eastwards in general, and Biden’s margin shrinking to just 3 points. As a result, the GOP was able to flip the seat in 2022, with Republican Sandy Pickert narrowly defeating Democrat incumbent Chuck Schmidt by 2 points. (Schmidt had been appointed to replace Bishop, who resigned in 2021.) The district should be competitive again this cycle and Dems have a decent shot of flipping it back. I’m classifying HD 88 as a Toss Up.

Kansas House District 92

KS HD 92 is based in the center of Wichita. Under the pre-2022 boundaries. HD 92 went from being fairly close at the presidential level to becoming reasonably safe for Democrats. The district went from supporting Obama by about 3.5 points in 2012 to supporting Clinton by between 7 and 8 points and Biden by an even larger 15.5-point margin. The 2014 house race was reasonably competitive, with Democrat incumbent John Carmichael, who had been appointed to the seat in 2013, winning by just under 8 points. None of the subsequent house races were competitive, however, with Carmichael winning by about 15 points in 2020 and running unopposed in all other cases, including 2022. HD 92 became slightly redder as a result of the 2022 redistricting, with Biden’s margin shrinking to about 14 points. The Democrats should be fairly safe, but the district is still worth keeping an eye on, as Carmichael has never been tested under the new boundaries, which admittedly aren’t that different from the old boundaries. I’m classifying HD 92 as Likely Democrat, but would obviously move the seat to Safe Democrat if Republicans leave it uncontested again.

Kansas House District 95

KS HD 95 is located immediately to the south of HD 92. HD 95 has been barely affected by the 2022 redistricting, with very similar pre-2022 and post-2022 boundaries. HD 95 has been competitive at the presidential level, with Romney narrowly carrying the district by about 1.5 points, Trump carrying it by nearly 5 points in 2016, and Biden carrying it by around 2 points. The district has been friendlier to Democrats at the state house level, with Dem Tom Sawyer flipping the seat in 2012, winning by about 15 points and being reelected by a similar margin in 2014 and by a slightly narrower margin of just under 9 points in 2016. Sawyer’s 2020 and 2022 performances were fairly similar to 2016, if not slightly stronger, as he won reelection by about 11 to 12 points in both cases. Sawyer should be favored this cycle, given his overperformances, but it seems reasonable to expect a competitive race, given the close presidential results and the overall increase in polarization. I’m classifying HD 95 as Lean Democrat.

Thanks to cnanalysis (for the 2020 presidential results of the new districts), and Daily Kos Elections (for the presidential results of the old districts).

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[1] Url: https://dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/19/2182140/-Kansas-State-House-Districts-2024-HD-85-HD-87-HD-88-HD-92-HD-95

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