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Wagner in Belarus is Lipstick on a Pig? [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-07-16

Just a quick thought … I think maybe moving Wagner forces to Belarus may simply be the least awkward mutually acceptable “solution” to get Wagner out of Putin’s way. And Lukashenko’s story that Wagner will train his troops is just lipstick on a pig.

Instead of looking for some clever master plan to invade Kyiv or Poland (which are non-starters due to woefully insufficient forces), let’s just assume the situation looks like what it looks like — a failed rebellion and now Putin doesn’t trust Wagner at all.

Putin would love to just crush them outright, but he lacks the reserve forces to do so. But conversely, the Wagner forces know they lack the strength to mount a successful rebellion, because Putin would rather pull forces out of Ukraine than personally die.

Since Putin can’t simply kill off the Wagnerites, what he really needs is for them to get out of the way. But where? There aren’t many countries eager to accept these violent war criminals. Kazakhstan is definitely like, “No thanks!”

So, Belarus may be the ONLY option available.

What’s in it for the Wagner forces? Well, they get to live. That’s an upside.

What’s in it for Putin? Well, if it all works out then the Wagner forces are conveniently out of the way, even if they’re a bit uncomfortably close to Moscow. And he doesn’t need to pull massive amounts of forces from the front.

Obviously in order to get this all moving along, Putin has to NOT kill off Prigozhin. At least, not yet.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/16/2181529/-Wagner-in-Belarus-is-Lipstick-on-a-Pig

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