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Ukraine Invasion Day 509: counteroffensive operations continue plus Black Sea drone strikes [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2023-07-16
Something may be happening:
x The President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin had reportedly requested an Urgent Meeting of the Russian Security Council. — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) July 17, 2023
Were mercenaries from PMC "Wagner" moved to Belarus to attack Poland and seize the Suwalki corridor? Also, the Kersh bridge may have been attacked.
Kaliningrad
x Russian propagandists claim Putin sent Wagner to Belarus so they could take the “Suwalki Corridor” within hours.
The Corridor is a piece of land connecting Poland & Lithuania between Belarus & Kaliningrad
Poland would smash them to pieces@TheKremlinYap pic.twitter.com/aUeizRVbfR — Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) July 15, 2023
More insubordination
Russian sources reported on July 15 that the Russian military command dismissed 106th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division Commander Major General Vladimir Seliverstov. [1] Russian sources stated that the reason for Seliverstov’s dismissal is currently unknown but speculated that it could be associated with Seliverstov’s reputation for speaking up on behalf of his soldiers. [2] Russian sources claimed that the 106th VDV Division has been operating in the Bakhmut area since January, and ISW has recently observed the 106th VDV Division’s 137th Guards VDV Regiment defending against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations on Bakhmut’s northern flank. [3] … [4] Relatives of mobilized personnel serving in the 137th VDV Regiment notably appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Tula Oblast Governor Alexei Dyumin, and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in April about poor conditions and lack of supplies in the unit. [5] Vocal discontent about conditions in areas where Russian forces are defending against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations may have prompted Seliverstov to appeal to the Russian military command, which may have contributed to his dismissal. ISW has not observed confirmation of Seliverstov’s dismissal, but Russian reporting about the dismissal follows a pattern similar to that of previous claims of command changes that have proven true. [6] www.understandingwar.org/...
Traffic over the Kerch Bridge between occupied Crimea and Russia has been stopped. Russian media report the cause may have been a Ukrainian attack. Locals say they heard multiple explosions and at least one bridge span has collapsed. Currently 5am.
x Appears that a section of the Crimean Bridge deck has collapsed pic.twitter.com/biwOcsZfFm — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 17, 2023
x The Russian-Appointed Leader of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov has announced that the 145th Pillar on the Kerch Strait Bridge has Collapsed as a result of a “Terrorist Attack” causing a Total Halt in Car Traffic across the Bridge; he further stated that No Damage was caused to the Train… pic.twitter.com/380IffkhEG — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) July 17, 2023
Moscow air defenses:
x Version 1.2 of known 🇷🇺 Moscow air defence locations & ranges thru July 11.
Key:
🔴 circle = Pantsir 11-mi SAM range
🟢 circle = Pantsir 2.5-mi 30mm cannon range
- S-400s have ranges that cover whole map
- ALL Pantsirs seen have been ID'd as S2s
- P-18-2 VHF radar at Salaryevo
https://t.co/2dqZWzKa6u pic.twitter.com/JEdIjPwxz9 — Evergreen Intel (@vcdgf555) July 16, 2023
Key Takeaways: Russian forces conducted offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove line and did not make confirmed advances.
Russian forces continued ground attacks near Kreminna and made tactical advances.
Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian rear areas in occupied Luhansk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and reportedly advanced.
Russian and Ukrainian sources confirmed that some Chechen forces have deployed to the Bakhmut area.
Russian forces continued limited ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and did not advance.
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia border area and made limited gains.
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and did not make confirmed advances in the area.
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continue to operate on east (left) bank Kherson Oblast near the Antonivsky Bridge and did not claim any Russian or Ukrainian advances in the area.
Russian officials accused Ukrainian forces of attempting an aerial and maritime drone strike against unspecified targets in the Black Sea near Sevastopol, Crimea overnight on July 15 to 16.
Russian “Lancet” drone (loitering munition) producer Zalo Aero Group announced the production of a new generation of drones with automatic targeting systems and the intention to expand production abroad.
A Ukrainian report indicates that Russian occupation authorities continue persecuting religious minorities in occupied Ukraine as part of a broader cultural genocide aimed at eradicating the Ukrainian national and cultural identity.
Wagner Group forces will reportedly integrate into the Russian-Belarusian Union State Regional Grouping of Troops (RGV). www.understandingwar.org/...
x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - JUL 16
Equipment losses well below 7-day average in dollar terms
DEVELOPMENT:
$1.9B in the last 30 days ⬇
$30M reported today ⬇
Artillery accounts for close to half of today's reported losses
📈
https://t.co/ornvEIM63l pic.twitter.com/sin6GAZD7n — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦
[email protected] (@ragnarbjartur) July 16, 2023
www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian forces conducted offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove line and did not make confirmed advances on July 16. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks south of Novoselivske (16km northwest of Svatove) and Masyutivka (13km northeast of Kupyansk). [67] …. Ukrainian military officials acknowledged on July 16 that Russian forces are conducting active offensive operations in the Kupyansk direction and that Ukrainian forces are defending in the area. [70] Russian forces have likely slightly increased their tempo of offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove line in order to pin existing Ukrainian forces there or draw additional Ukrainian forces to this area of the front and away from ongoing counteroffensive operations. Russian forces may also be attempting to capitalize opportunistically on claimed tactical gains in the area. ISW has observed no indication of new Russian units, equipment, or large-scale operations that would indicate the start of a new major Russian offensive on this axis. Russian forces continued ground attacks near Kreminna and made tactical advances as of July 16. Geolocated footage shows that Russian forces made marginal gains west of Berestove (30km south of Kreminna). The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks east of Vesele (31km south of Kreminna). [71] ... [73] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian ground attacks near Novovodyane (23km northwest of Kreminna), Makiivka, the Serebryanske forest area (11km south of Kreminna), Bilohorivka, and Vesele. [74] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and reportedly advanced on July 16. Some Russian sources, including one Wagner Group affiliated source, claimed that Ukrainian forces liberated Zaliznyanske (10km northwest of Bakhmut), a fortified area west of Andriivka (9km southwest of Bakhmut), and parts of heights near Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut). [78] ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claims. … Russian sources also claimed that Ukrainian forces intensified counteroffensive operations near Dubovo-Vasylivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut), Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut), Berkhivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut), Kurdyumivka (13km southwest of Bakhmut), Klishchiivka, and Andriivka. [80] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces continue to advance in the Bakhmut area and are defending new positions on the flanks of Bakhmut against Russian ground attacks. [81] Russian forces continued limited ground attacks in the Bakhmut area and did not advance on July 16. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks in the Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Hryhorivka (8km northwest of Bakhmut), and Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut) areas, and southwest of Andriivka. [83] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks near Berkhivka and Yahidne (2km north of Bakhmut). [84] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Russian forces are attempting to construct further defensive fortifications to defend Bakhmut. [85] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes) Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia border area and made limited gains as of July 16. Geolocated footage published on July 15 shows that Ukrainian forces made limited gains northwest of Staromayorske (9km south of Velyka Novosilka). [93] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attempt to restore lost positions in northern Staromayorske, acknowledging that Ukrainian forces have entered the settlement. [94] Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Major Valerii Shershen reported that Ukrainian forces advanced one kilometer in an unspecified area in the Berdyansk direction (western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia border area). [95] Some Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces liberated Staromayorske, while others claimed that Russian forces, including unspecified Russian Airborne (VDV) elements and the ”Kaskad” Operational Combat Tactical Formation, repelled Ukrainian forces from positions in northern and northwestern Staromayorske and that Russian forces control the settlement. [96] A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Ukrainian artillery units are using cluster munitions near Staromayorske, though ISW has not observed any evidence to verify this claim. [97] www.understandingwar.org/...
About 40% of long range missiles fired by Russia at Ukraine are Kalibr cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea. Kalibr missiles are mostly fired by ships in the Black Sea and not submarines. Those ships are legitimate military targets and there is no anti-ship missile which can reach the majority of the Black Sea other than an LRASM. There are Tomahawks Anti-Ship Missiles but they are not necessary Sending 10 to 30 LRASMs missiles will not impact USA’s ability to defend Taiwan or go against China. In fact, they will save a lot more money due to expensive air defense missiles like NASAMS not being used as often. It will also decreases Russia’s threat to Ukraine and Russia’s threat to other Navy’s in the Black Sea. It would also show China the capability that America has in taking out Navy ships with LRASM missiles, and act as a deterrent for China not to invade Taiwan. There are several ways LRASMs can be launched by Ukraine. They could either get USA military aircraft that are capable of launching them like F-18s, or they can be configured onto other aircraft like F-16s and F-15Es which are capable of launching JASSM cruise missiles, which are similar to the LRASM anti-ship missile. They have also been successful test fired from HIMARS/M270s. And they can be launched far from Russian defenses by being dropped from a cargo plane like C-130s or C-17s using a rapid dragon system. Below the map shows which anti-ship missiles can reach which points in the Black Sea. As can be seen below, Ukraine does not have the capability to reach far into the Black Sea or even reach most of Crimea Ukraine’s Neptune missiles can theoretically or in tests reach 300km but they realistically cannot hit Russian Ships that far away. The Moskva was sunk 100km from Ukraine, and Russian ships do fire Kalibr Cruise Missiles within Neptune range and do not get struck by Neptune’s. Yellow are Ukraine’s Harpoons Green are Naval Strike Missiles Orange are SLAM-ER Purple are LRASMs Blue are Anti-Ship Tomahawks x About 40% of long range missiles fired by Russia at Ukraine 🇺🇦 are Kalibr cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea. Kalibr missiles are mostly fired by ships in the Black Sea and not submarines.
Those ships are legitimate military targets and there is no anti-ship missile… pic.twitter.com/I8TP6irj1z — Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) July 10, 2023
x Ukraine is fighting to survive. If russia lays down its arms, the war ends. If Ukraine lays down its arms, Ukraine ends. pic.twitter.com/KNdiA6rH0g — Roman Sheremeta 🇺🇦 (@rshereme) July 16, 2023
x SitRep - 16/07/23 - Biden gave the green light for F-16 training
An overview of the daily events in the war between Russia and Ukraine. Biden agreed to begin F-16 training for Ukrainian pilots by European countries. Furthermore, AFU entered Staromaiors'ke.
1/X pic.twitter.com/gG7JNzqBlB — NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) July 16, 2023
x Shout Out to the women warriors of Ukraine. 60,000 in Ukraine armed services; 13,000 serve in combat roles; 900 officers.
They make the BEST snipers and are revolutionizing the role of women in warfare#UkraineWar #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/tlt6P3Chet — Paul Healey 🇺🇦🇨🇦 (@Ukraine_Oracle) July 16, 2023
x The Russian Military has Decided To deploy a New Tank Variant to Ukraine.
T-54 "Ayden" obr.2023 pic.twitter.com/thyQrWRGPr — jabuttee - luxurious memes and takes (@jabuttee) July 16, 2023
x The historical repression of antiwar voices in Canada, often twinned with red-baiting, is resurfacing amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. This resurgence marks a worrying return to stifling dissent and limiting freedom of expression.
https://t.co/MvhVzFhamw — Jacobin (@jacobin) July 16, 2023
x Russia seizes Danone and Carlsberg Assets. For all the Kremlin ass kissing and appeasement, these craven corporate execs still ended up with the same result. They should have just pulled out with the rest of the civilized world when the war started
https://t.co/KQh5PWp5xJ — Bill Browder (@Billbrowder) July 16, 2023
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