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A study finds the rate of climate change (rather than thresholds reached) triggers tipping points. [1]

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Date: 2023-07-15

“The phenomenon of rate-induced tipping is not restricted to climate systems. Using mathematical modelling, we observe similar effects in ecosystems and human-made systems.” HassanAlkhayuon (Joint Lead Author), School of Mathematical Sciences, University College Cork

Mathematicians from the University of Exeter, along with the University College York, have identified rapid rates of change in human and climate systems trigger dangerous tipping points. A rate-induced tipping point is not by a biome reaching a critical difference, such as decay at the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica, but rather the tipping point is started by how quickly the change occurs. The faster the change, the faster the tip unfolds.

From the University of Exeter Presser:

It is now widely understood that tipping points can occur when thresholds are crossed, such as the degree of global warming. The new study instead highlights the dangers associated with rate-induced tipping, which is triggered not by a critical level of change but instead by how quickly that level is reached. Once triggered, tipping points may lead to abrupt changes in natural and human systems including the reorganisation of large ocean circulation currents, extinction of ecosystem populations and blackouts on power grid networks. Until now, critical thresholds have been assumed to be a point of no return, but the new study – published in the journal Earth System Dynamics – concludes that dangerous rates could trigger permanent shifts in human and natural systems before these critical levels are reached. The research team say the rate of change in external forcing is often more important to control, than the peak change, if we are to avoid triggering tipping points. “Whilst the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 6th Assessment Report rightly highlighted the urgency to limit global warming levels, it fell short of identifying the rate of warming as a key risk factor for climate tipping points” said joint lead author Dr Paul Ritchie, of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute and the Department of Mathematics and Statistics. “This rate-induced tipping may be of even greater concern because of the unprecedented rates of global warming and heatwave intensity we are currently experiencing.”

To the media, which does not have a history of reporting on the planet's heating, this is how climate reporting is done. h/t Climate Crock

And the print media needs to do the same; the rich and powerful are murdering us. This piece from The Guardian shows how the climate dots connect with human systems.

George Monbiot writes:

With our food systems on the verge of collapse, it’s the plutocrats v life on Earth

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/15/2181345/-A-study-finds-the-rapid-rate-of-a-dangerous-change-in-the-climate-triggers-tipping-points

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