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Kansas State House Districts (2024): HD 3, HD 60, HD 65, HD 67, HD 102 [1]

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Date: 2023-07-11

Today, I will be looking at five more Kansas house districts: HD 3, HD 60, HD 65, HD 67, and HD 102, all located throughout the state (and not in any major metro area).

Kansas House District 3

KS HD 3 is located on the state’s eastern border (with Missouri) and contains the community of Pittsburg. HD 3 was barely affected by the 2022 redistricting, with the pre-2022 and post-2022 boundaries staying very similar. HD 3 has moved away from the Democrats in recent years, having gone from supporting Mitt Romney by a fairly narrow 5-point margin to supporting Donald Trump by a larger margin of nearly 17 points in 2016 and by around 13 points in 2020. At the state house level, both parties have held the district, with Republican Chuck Smith flipping the seat in 2014, as he narrowly defeated then incumbent Democrat Julie Menghini by about 2 points. Democrat Monica Muran was able to flip the seat back in 2016, as she defeated Smith by about 5 points, and was reelected by a larger margin of between 9 and 10 points in 2018. However, the Republicans flipped the seat again in 2020, with Smith defeating Muran by 8 points (in a rematch of 2016). The Dems did not contest the district in 2022, leaving Smith unopposed. Smith should be favored this cycle, as polarization should help the GOP overall, but it seems reasonable to expect a competitive race, given that nearly all the previous state house races have been competitive. I’m classifying HD 3 as Lean Republican.

Kansas House District 60

KS HD 60 is based in the central-eastern part of the state and contains the community of Emporia. Under the pre-2022 boundaries, HD 60 was a Republican-leaning district that was somewhat competitive at the presidential level, with Romney carrying the district by about 8 points and Trump carrying it by about 9 points in 2016 and by a narrow margin of just over 2 points in 2020. The district was not at all competitive at the state house level, with Republican Mark Schreiber winning the open seat by a very large margin of about 26.5 points and being reelected by over 18 points in 2020. (He ran unopposed in 2018.) The 2022 redistricting made HD 60 a few points bluer as Joe Biden would have now carried the district by a razor-thin margin of less than half a percentage point. Schreiber was able to hold onto the seat fairly easily in 2022, winning by about 10.5 points, though it should be pointed out that this is a considerable reduction from his previous margins, a sign of polarization. Schreiber should be favored, given his previous overperformances, but the seat should be competitive, considering that Biden carried it (albeit, barely). I’m classifying HD 60 as Lean Republican.

Kansas House District 65

KS HD 65 is home to the community of Milford. HD 65 swung several points to the right under the pre-2022 boundaries, having gone from supporting Romney by a little more than 10 points to supporting Trump by about 23.5 points in 2016, though the seat did swing back quite a bit to the left in 2020, with Trump carrying it by a little less than 15 points. The district featured a very close state house race back in 2012, with Republican Melody Saxton winning the open seat by a razor-thin margin of less than half a percentage point, but Republican Lonnie Clark easily held onto the district in 2014 by a margin of about 21.5 points and ran unopposed in the following three election cycles. HD 65 became a few points bluer as a result of the 2022 redistricting, with Trump’s 2020 margin shrinking to around 11 points, and the entire southeastern part of the (old) district removed. Republican Jeff Underhill won the open seat in 2022, with Democrats failing to contest the district, once again. Underhill should be fairly safe, but the district still warrants notice, given the marginally competitive 2020 presidential result and that the Republicans haven’t really been tested here, as Dems have failed to contest the seat in recent years. I’m classifying HD 65 as Likely Republican, but would obviously move the district to Safe Republican if Dems fail to contest it again.

Kansas House District 67

KS HD 67 encompasses western parts of Manhattan, home to Kansas State University (though the university itself is not contained in the district). HD 67 moved a good deal to the left under the pre-2022 boundaries, as it went from easily supporting Romney by nearly 18 points to supporting Trump by between 6 and 7 points in 2016 to supporting Biden by just under 3 points. Republican incumbent Tom Phillips easily held onto the seat in 2018, as he won by a large 23-point margin. (Note that Dems did not contest the seat in 2014 or 2016.) However, the 2020 state house race was quite competitive, with Republican Mike Dodson winning the open seat by just over 7 points. The 2022 redistricting made HD 67 a few points bluer, with Biden’s margin expanding to about 6.5 points. Nevertheless, Dodson managed to narrowly hold onto the seat in 2022, winning by just under 5 points. Given’s Biden’s decent margin, the district should be a strong pick-up opportunity for Dems this cycle. I’m classifying HD 67 as a Toss Up.

Kansas House District 102

KS HD 102 contains the community of Hutchison. HD 102 was not affected by the 2022 redistricting all that much, with the pre-2022 and post-2022 iterations having a similar partisan lean. HD 102 was decently Republican-leaning at the presidential level, with Romney carrying the seat by about 7 points and Trump carrying it by about 17 points in 2016 and by nearly 16 points in 2020. However, Democrat Patsy Terrell was able to flip the seat in 2016, defeating then incumbent Republican Jan Pauls by about 11 points, despite Trump simultaneously carrying it by a decent margin. Terrell died several months into her term and Democrat Jason Probst was appointed to replace her. Probst ran unopposed in 2018 and was reelected by a razor-thin margin of less than 100 votes in 2020 and a larger margin of nearly 5 points in 2022, facing the same Republican challenger in both cases and significantly outperforming the partisan lean of the district. Probst is arguably the most vulnerable Democrat, given that HD 102 is the only Dem-held seat that easily supported Trump in 2020 and that the trends haven’t been particularly favorable to Dems either. I’m classifying the district as a Toss Up (and could potentially see shifting the district to Lean Republican if Probst ends up not running this cycle).

Thanks to cnanalysis (for the 2020 presidential results of the new districts), and Daily Kos Elections (for the presidential results of the old districts).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/11/2180450/-Kansas-State-House-Districts-2024-HD-3-HD-60-HD-65-HD-67-HD-102

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