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Kansas State House Districts (2024): HD 14, HD 15, HD 30, HD 49, HD 78 [1]

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Date: 2023-07-11

Next up in my state legislative series is the Kansas House of Representatives. Currently, the balance in chamber is 85R – 40D, meaning that Democrats need a net gain of at least twenty-three seats for control of the chamber, which seems highly unattainable. However, the primary goal for Democrats isn’t to flip the chamber, but rather to break the GOP supermajority, which is far more achievable, as the Dems only need a net gain of two seats to do so. Breaking the supermajority would be significant, as it would allow Democratic Governor Laura Kelly to successfully use her veto power. In the case of KS, election results for the old districts are fairly useful as the district numbers on the new map roughly correspond to the district numbers on the old map. As per usual, I only plan on looking at non-competitive seats (“Safe Republican” or “Safe Democrat”) if they are projected to flip. I am assuming, unless stated otherwise, that the incumbents are running for reelection.

Today, I am looking at five house districts: HD 14, HD 15, HD 30, HD 49, and HD 78, all of which are based (at least partially) around the city of Olathe, a Kansas City suburb contained in Johnson County.

Kansas House District 14

KS HD 14 contains the northern parts of Olathe. HD 14 trended rapidly towards the Dems under the pre-2022 boundaries, having gone from easily supporting Mitt Romney by over 27 points to supporting Donald Trump by a considerably narrower margin of about 11.5 points in 2016 to supporting Joe Biden by less than 2 points. The Democrats also made improvements at the state house level, with Republican Charlotte Esau narrowly winning the open seat by between 1 and 2 points in 2018, a sharp reduction from Republican Keith Esau’s (her husband’s) 16-point reelection in 2016. The 2020 house race was also quite close, with Esau being reelected by just under 5 points, against the same Dem challenger she faced in 2018. The 2022 redistricting made HD 14 very slightly redder, with Biden’s margin shrinking to less than a percentage point. Despite this, Democrat Dennis Miller was able to flip the seat in 2022, as he narrowly defeated Esau by about 1.5 points. The district should be competitive this cycle, given the close previous results. While some may be tempted to give Miller the edge, considering the favorable trends and that he will now have the advantage of incumbency, I’m going to cautiously classify HD 14 as a Toss Up.

Kansas House District 15

KS HD 15 is located directly south of HD 14 (covered in the paragraph above). Under the pre-2022 boundaries, HD 15 had moved a good deal towards the Dems at the presidential level, as it went from supporting Romney by between 13 and 14 points to supporting Trump by a little less than 7 points in 2016 and Biden by between 6 and 7 points. The GOP easily held onto the seat in 2016, with Republican incumbent Erin Davis winning by about 17 points, but the 2018 state house race was very competitive, with Republican John Toplikar wining the open seat by just 3 points, as was the 2020 house race, with Toplikar being reelected by the same margin. The 2022 redistricting made HD 15 several points redder, as Trump would have now narrowly carried the district in 2020 by between 1 and 2 points. Democrat Allison Houghland managed to flip HD 15 in 2022, even with the new district being more favorable to Republicans, as she narrowly won the open seat by less than 100 votes (a little more than a percentage point). The district should be competitive again this cycle and a decent pick-up opportunity for the GOP, especially considering that it is one of only two Dem-held seats in the chamber that Trump carried in 2020, though given the trends, it seems quite possible that Dems will carry it at the presidential level in 2024. I’m classifying HD 15 as a Toss Up.

Kansas House District 30

KS HD 30 encompasses the northeastern end of Olathe, as well as the city of Lenexa (also based in Johnson County). Under the pre-2022 boundaries, HD 30 had moved a good deal to the left (as the case with the Kansas City suburbs in general), having gone from being a Republican-leaning district that supported Romney by a little more than 10 points to being a Dem-leaning district that supported Biden by about 15 points. (Hillary Clinton narrowly carried it by between 3 and 4 points.) Republican Randy Powell narrowly held onto the seat in 2016, winning reelection by less than 5 points, but Democrat Brandon Woodard was able to flip it in 2018, winning the open seat by between 8 and 9 points, and was reelected by a narrower margin of just under 4 points in 2020. HD 30 became significantly redder as a result of the 2022 redistricting, with Biden’s margin shrinking to about 3 points and the district expanding further west in general. The GOP was able to flip the seat in 2022, with Republican Laura Williams, who was the challenger in 2020, narrowly winning the open race by about 1.5 points. The district should be a decent pick-up opportunity for Dems, given that Biden carried it and that the previous house race was close. I’m classifying HD 30 as a Toss Up.

Kansas House District 49

KS HD 49 is located directly east of HD 15. HD 49 swung heavily to the left at the presidential level under the pre-2022 boundaries and was similar partisan-wise to the pre-2022 iteration of HD 15, if not a somewhat redder district to begin with, as Romney carried HD 49 by over 21 points. Prior to 2018, the district wasn’t competitive at the state house level either, with Republicans winning the seat by double-digit margins. Republican Megan Lynn won the open seat in 2018 by a reasonably competitive margin of about 8 points and was reelected in 2020 by a narrow margin of about 2 points. The 2022 redistricting made HD 49 a few points redder, with Biden’s margin shrinking to between 3 and 4 points. Democrat Brad Boyd flipped the district in 2022, as he narrowly won the open race by about 1.5 points. The district should be competitive again this cycle. I’m classifying HD 49 as a Toss Up.

Kansas House District 78

KS HD 78 is located southeast of HD 15 and southwest of HD 49. Again, like many of the districts covered here, HD 78 moved very heavily to the left under the pre-2022 boundaries ( but perhaps at an even faster rate), with Romney easily carrying the district by nearly 29 points but Trump carrying it by a comparatively narrower margin of about 15.5 points in 2016 and by a razor-thin margin of less than a percentage point in 2020. The district had a marginally competitive house race in 2018, with Republican Ron Ryckman being reelected by about 11 points, in contrast with his previous races, which he won by over 20 points. Ryckman’s 2020 house race was even closer, as he won less than 5 points. The 2022 redistricting made HD 78 slightly redder, with Trump’s 2020 margin expanding to just over 3 points. The 2022 state house race was moderately competitive, with Republican Robyn Essex winning the open seat by 7 points. Essex should be favored, especially given that she will now have the advantage of incumbency, but it seems reasonable to expect a competitive race, considering the favorable trends for Democrats. I’m classifying HD 78 as Lean Republican.

Thanks to cnanalysis (for the 2020 presidential results of the new districts), and Daily Kos Elections (for the presidential results of the old districts).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/11/2180449/-Kansas-State-House-Districts-2024-HD-14-HD-15-HD-30-HD-49-HD-78

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