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How are Democrats (President & Senate Candidates) Doing in Swing States this year? [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-07-10

DKos readers and our volunteers often ask what i make of all the raw data Hope Springs from Field PAC volunteers are producing each week. TBH i don’t have a lot of time to think about it because doing this takes up a lot of time! But that doesn’t mean i shouldn’t. The real value to Democratic success is the data we collect that can be used at the individual voter level, and grouping desperate elements together in micro-targeting on the individual issue level. For example, we are collecting data that makes it possible to speak to voters about their specific single issue, whether it is Reproductive Healthcare or the Economy or Climate Change. But that’s a tool for the individual campaigns to exploit.

Consensus 2024 Presidential Battleground Map

Furthermore, as we release the weekly data, readers can sometimes confuse it with public polling they see elsewhere. The two are not the same, for two huge reasons: first, we don’t include Republican households in our canvasses, and, second, there is no attempt to balance the data by modelling results to conform to the population. We don’t model the data by weighing gender or age and then displaying the results accordingly. This is raw data, voter responses from people who are willing to talk to volunteers that week. The value is in early detection of trends, messaging and then, ultimately, targeting voters better in campaign activities in late Summer and Fall of the Election Year.

Since March 4, Hope Springs from Field volunteers have been knocking on doors (as weather permits) in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Virginia. These all are critical states that will determine who is President and which party controls the Senate in 2025. So, not much at stake.

We ask voters who talk to us whether they approve or disapprove of the job the president, their incumbent Senator (up for election this year), and how their governor is doing. After the primaries, we also ask about the Democratic Senate and nominees. But a very high percentage of the voters who provide responses to the Issues Survey will tell us what they think about their president, or senator or governor. But especially president.

Last Year’s Final Graphic of Biden Approval

And, let’s face it, we all look at the trend lines and read something into them. It’s natural. Like the end of the cycle last year, we will periodically show a combined graphic of data. Remember, these lines represent the results from the Democrats and unaffiliated voters we have talked to at their door on Saturday mornings. Very, very few Republicans turn up in our results, and when it happens it is because they live in a household where there are Democrats living and voting from that address.

November 2020 Exit Polls

This is crucial to remember, because i often hear, ‘wow, those results are better than i expected (or better than the national polls are finding).’ And they are not. Literally, up to 40% of the voters in these states are not reflected in our results. Which is why i don’t focus too much on that.

But here’s what does matter, for those knocking on doors and sending out direct mail next year: they won’t need to spend as much time or money on the voters we identify now as Biden (or Democratic Senate candidate) supporters this year or next. Of course, they won’t be eliminated totally; you still want to touch your supporters to reinforce their support (and make sure they don’t feel neglected). But it probably won’t be through direct mail (which is expensive) or through canvassing (which requires valuable volunteer time). The downside of this, of course, is that volunteers next fall may wonder why they are passing up a house with a Biden or Democratic Senate candidate sign in front of their house. That’s why training is so critical!

Compare what we found at the beginning of last year’s election voter contact efforts and what we find 11 months later. As the election approached last year, Biden’s approval ratings in the two Swing State States where Democratic candidates (Warnock and Fetterman) had their races called on election night were trending above 60%. It’s probably not a coincidence that the president wasn’t a drag on their candidacies. And it’s probably not a coincidence that Biden’s approval ratings were lowest in Ohio and Wisconsin. Still bitter about the loss in Wisconsin.

But the reality is, in the states where Hope Springs from Field is knocking on doors (all, admittedly, swing states), that Biden is about 10 percentage points behind where he ended in 2022. In Georgia, it is almost 20 percentage points, although we expanded into the Atlanta metro area and that has effected the results we are seeing each week.

Here’s my take: it’s not really much of a surprise that Biden’s approval numbers have come down in these states. No one is cheerleading for the president right now, not on TV, not in print, and not on the internet. Most presidents focus on governing at this point in their presidencies and there are important things they have to deal with every year at this time (passing a budget and appropriations bills). Remember that Barack Obama had an approval rate of 44% in 2011 and Bill Clinton had an approval rate of 42% in 1995. Both were re-elected decisively.

But it is reasonable to conclude that we are in for another close election. And while Republicans are focused on re-running the 2020 election (and doing better in it), it is vital to remember that Biden and the Democrats on the ballot with him aren’t (re-running the 2020 election).

Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors since March in a grassroots effort to prepare the 2024 Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First and Second Rounds of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are canvassing Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.

Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel

Hope Springs from Field PAC understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.

Democrats didn’t knock on doors, for the most part, in 2020. Democrats didn’t register new voters to the same degree that we always had in the run-up to a presidential election. Expanding the electorate is absolutely key to Democratic success and we held back on that traditional effort because of the pandemic. We did expand our digital efforts and we gained valuable insight and experience in that arena. But we held an arm behind our backs last time around — and we have learned from their experience. That experience was critical to the reasons behind why Hope Springs was started.

But we are entering the 2024 election cycle better prepared. Not only are we identifying support and those who need to be persuaded, we are allowing voters to self-identify the issues by which they can be persuaded! When the Biden campaign starts knocking on doors next fall, they will have valuable data from which to guide their conversations with those voters who need to be persuaded.

That includes Democrats who said they had an unfavorable impression of the job Biden was doing. When Biden volunteers go back and talk to these voters who expressed disapproval, they will have a leg up. And this advantage can be expanded beyond those who we got to talk to. Because they data they provide can be used to model how to talk to persuadable voters and what to talk to them about.

Last Year’s Final Graphic of Senators & Democratic Nominees

The same thing can be said about our Democratic Senate nominees. We are preparing their electoral battlefield just as we did in 2022. Registering voters. Collecting Incident Reports which enabled us to have frank and honest conversations with law enforcement entities about patterns of voter suppression and intimidation, as well as precincts with a history of opening late. Touching Democrats and reminding them that Democratic elected officials take governance seriously, and want to deliver public goods as soon as possible.

November 2022 Exit Polls (Turnout & Democratic Support)

One aspect of the canvassing the Hope Springs from Field does that is undervalued by those outside the campaign world are the fact that we walk with Q(uestion)-Slips and train our volunteers to write voter questions (as well as impressions) down. Those questions that can be answered by Democratic Senate campaigns are given to those campaigns to answer. Rev. Warnock’s campaign made great use of their volunteers to answer voter questions as soon as possible — and we found people at the doors who knew about their letters to other voters (and their responses).

You can take a lot of things away from the graphic of Democratic Senate candidates on the left. First of all, the absence of a campaign yet on the part of these candidates is notable. But the really obvious things are in Arizona and Nevada. In Arizona, Rep. Gallego is becoming better known, and definitely better known outside his Congressional District (where we are *not* canvassing). We have had a lot of independent voters in Arizona tell us that it really depends on who Republicans nominate; Sen. Simena doesn’t seem to be much of a consideration among the unaffiliated voters we talk to in the state. Remember, we are knocking on doors in swingy areas, the areas that really make the difference in elections. So these are responses outside the partisan base (both Democratic and Republican).

Secondly, Sen. Rosen is much better known than Sen. Cortez Masto was last year during the Summer. Whereas Cortez Masto was hugging the 50% range, Rosen is hugging 60%. I won’t say this bodes well but it certainly doesn’t hurt.

Also, it is important to note that all these Democrats are incumbents (except for Gallego, who is a Congressman). So they have a record, which is both good and bad. What we have learned is that voters don’t really remember the “good” votes their senators have taken (ie, the ones they agree with), but they don’t forget the “bad” votes (the ones they disagree with). But even with the senator who is “polling” (remember, this isn’t a poll, they are the results of a questionnaire to Democrats and independents in swingy areas) highest (right now, Bob Casey), still almost 30% of the voters we talk to either don’t have an impression of their senator *or* they don’t want to tell us. And most likely the former. I try to remind people that field (voter contact) and media go hand in hand. If a candidate is in their newspaper, or on TV, or the radio, they tend to have higher recognition rates at the time we talk to voters.

Hope Springs from Field is not just knocking on doors in the presidential and senatorial swing states. Our core mission includes special elections (we were involved in a number of them earlier in the year) and GOTV components that have or may be overlooked. For example, we have been active in getting voters that don’t have the (now) required photo ID the necessary voters IDs through their local elections office.

Last year, Hope Springs worked with Black Churches as well as the voters we found at the doors to help voters in 21 counties get free Photo Voter IDs. We completed 56 Voter ID days and helped 18,478 voters get photo ID cards so they can vote. 918 voters were turned away because the local Registrar’s office ran out of card stock and 2,374 voters were denied Voter ID cards because they were unable provide all the needed documents in order to qualify. Some of these, though, did return and receive their Georgia Voter ID card.

Because of changes in the law or new court rulings, we have now expanded this effort to North Carolina and Ohio to help voters get their free Photo IDs.

Final New Voter Postcard

Hope Springs has also organized special voter outreach for new voters. Last year, we had registered 16,261 new voters. Knowing that campaigns won’t target new voters who don’t have a voting history, volunteers (743 from the DKos community) agreed to send those new voters 3 postcards. But these post cards were only the first in each round of sustained voter contact to remind these new voters (overwhelmingly under the age of 30) to get out and vote. Postcards were followed up with robocalls, live calls and/or texts, and our Virgin Voter canvassing.

We actually looked to see if these brand new voters turned out in the November election and were generally happy with the results:

First Line = All New Voters We Registered. Second Line = Mentored Voters

Voter contact works, and it is best if it is sustained. That’s the task at hand.

Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as Congressional Districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.

By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions, Hope Springs from Field PAC seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them.

If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel

Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/10/2179959/-How-are-Democrats-President-Senate-Candidates-Doing-in-Swing-States-this-year

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