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Ukraine Invasion Day 502: continued counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2023-07-09
Ukraine must win. Ukraine belongs in NATO. No more delays, lack of strategic clarity, or backchannel BS with Putin’s terrorist regime.
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 9. Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Ukrainian forces successfully continue to advance in the Bakhmut direction.[1] Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensive operations in the Berdyansk and Melitopol directions.[2] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[3] ... Ukrainian military officials also reiterated that Ukrainian forces are continuing their interdiction campaigns in southern and eastern Ukraine.[5]
🚨 Russian fascist prostitute & singer Nikolai Baskov who issued a personal ₽1,000,000 ruble reward ($10,000) for each destroyed Leopard tank in Ukraine is making money on NATO territory. Seen here at a Russian mafioso's private birthday party in Montenegro. pic.twitter.com/RyAVxSlwW5
Putin’s reluctance to arrest #Prigozhin means either he lied to all Russians when he labeled Prigozhin a traitor or he is afraid to arrest Prigozhin. Neither explanation is a good look for the Kremlin “strong man.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to not rapidly dispose of the Wagner Group and prosecute rebellion participants is placing himself and his subordinates in an awkward position. It remains unclear who benefits from the leak of Wagner’s alleged founding document as the document makes the Wagner Group look professional and appealing in comparison with the regular Russian military. Wagner is still reportedly recruiting within Russia while the Russian MoD is reportedly conducting a competing effort to recruit Wagner fighters to sign contracts with the MoD.[41] Putin’s decision to not dispose of the Wagner Group – previously Russia's most combat capable force – is making it difficult for Putin and other Russian power players to know how to interact with the Wagner Group and its leaders and fighters.
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks north of Svatove and south of Kreminna on July 9. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks near Berestove (20km northeast of Svatove), Novoselivske (13km northwest of Svatove), Stelmakhivka (15km northwest of Svatove), Spirne (25km south of Kreminna), and Vesele (30km south of Kreminna).[42] Footage posted on July 9 purportedly shows Ukrainian forces respelling a small platoon-sized Russian assault with tank and infantry fighting vehicle support near Bilohorivka.[43] Footage posted on July 9 purportedly shows artillery elements of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army (Western Military District) operating near Kotlyarivka (27km northwest of Svatove), units of the 120th Guards Artillery Brigade (41st Combined Arms Army, Central Military District) operating near Kreminna, and units of the 3rd Guards Spetsnaz Brigade operating in the Lyman direction.[44] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks in the Svatove direction and near Novovodyane (25km northwest of Kreminna), Nevske (19km northwest of Kreminna), Torske (16km west of Kreminna), and Bilohorivka (33km south of Kreminna).[45]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut area on July 9. Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Ukrainian forces have been successful and continue to advance in the Bakhmut direction.[46] ... Elements of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Brigade previously failed to hold their positions against Ukrainian counterattacks in the Bakhmut area in May 2023, demonstrating pervasive issues with the Russian force generation effort and drawing extensive ire in the Russian information space.[50]…
Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on July 9. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that the Russian “Vostok” volunteer battalion and Russian artillery, missile, and air strikes repelled Ukrainian attacks near Robotyne (15km south of Orikhiv), Novodanylivka (6km southeast of Orikhiv), and Mala Tokmachka (9km southeast of Orikhiv).[63]…. ISW has not observed visual evidence confirming Russian claims at the time of this publication. A Russian source indicated that elements of the Russian BARS-1 (Russian Combat Army Reserve) volunteer detachment are operating as part of the 70thGuards Motorized Rifle Regiment (42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army, SMD) alongside drone operators from the “Tsarskiye Volky” (Tsar’s Wolves) detachment in the Zaporizhia direction.[67] A Russian source also noted that elements of the Russian “Osman” Spetsnaz unit are fighting in the Zaporizhia direction.[68]
Russian forces reportedly continued to reestablish positions on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River that were previously flooded after the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam.[69] Head of the Ukrainian Joint Coordination Press Center of the Southern Forces Captain Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces are partially successful in restoring some positions but continue to encounter mines that dispersed throughout Russian positions during the flood.[70] Humenyuk noted that many Russian servicemen are reluctant to return to their abandoned positions due to mining but that the Russian military command forces them to do so.
www.understandingwar.org/...
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
Ukrainian forces continued to advance in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia oblasts administrative border area on July 9. Ukrainian military officials reported that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations and counter-battery measures in the Berdyansk direction.[59] A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced towards Pryyutne (17km southwest of Velyka Novosilka) from the north and are currently about 2km away from the settlement.[60] The milblogger claimed that Russian forces unsuccessfully counterattacked from the direction of Urozhaine (9km south of Velyka Novosilka) towards Blahodatne (5km south of Velyka Novosilka).[61] The Ukrainian General Staff similarly reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near Blahodatne.[62]
www.understandingwar.org/...
US President Joe Biden stated that Ukraine cannot join NATO until Russia’s war in Ukraine is over. Biden told CNN on July 9 that it is premature to vote on Ukraine’s NATO membership and that the alliance should “lay out a rational path for Ukraine to be able to qualify to be able to get into NATO.”[10] Biden’s statement follows Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s July 7 statement that Ukraine “deserves NATO membership” and precedes the NATO summit in Vilnius on July 11 and July 12.[11]
www.understandingwar.org/...
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