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Holy Smokes! Ukraine may be getting cluster shells. [1]

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Date: 2023-07-06

The New York Times is reporting that the U. S. will provide cluster munitions to Ukraine.



This is a Big Deal. Ukraine is running low of standard artillery shells, and these munitions are both plentiful and a “force multiplier.” Note the the respected Cossack RO37 posted just today about Russia’s problems with a possible shortage of artillery ammunition. Ukraine must also deal with artillery ammunition shortages.



Cluster munitions are well suited to attack infantry, and especially an entrenched enemy. A single shell or bomb bursts into a couple hundred small bomblets some distance above the ground. The sub-munitions spread out over a wide area, each dropping on its own. This greatly increases your chances of dropping some bomblets near an infantryman or into a trench.



Conventional high explosives only explode into a trench if they are insanely accurate. HIMARS GPS guided rounds can do that, and so can 155 mm Excalibur rounds from M277 tube artillery. Those rounds are both expensive and in short supply in Ukraine. Because of the sort of shotgun effect of a cluster munition they don’t need to be that accurate.

The U. S. has massive stockpiles of cluster munitions it will never use. They are just what Ukraine needs right now. Lots of inexpensive weapons that are highly effective against infantry and trenches.



As for unexploded bomblets, as you might guess the U. S. cluster bombs have a very small percentage of bomblets which are duds. It’s about 3% if memory serves. Compare that to the Vietnam percentage of about 20-30% duds.



Those unexploded sub-munitions are the reason cluster munitions are considered particularly evil. But Ukraine will be using them on their own land. It’s Ukrainian children who will be at risk. They are willing to pay the price to shorten the war. Note that Russia is using cluster munitions regularly, and Russian sub-munitions have a very high (i.e. >25%) dud rate. Shortening the war using quality U. S. cluster munitions will actually reduce the number of unexploded bomblets lying about in Ukraine when the war ends.



I hope this is what Ukraine intends to do with their cluster munitions. It will shorten the war. This weapon will provide Ukraine with a major sustainable advantage in the current phase of the war.



There is, however, another method which Ukraine may use to deliver the sub-munitions. They may take the projectiles apart and drop the individual bomblets from drones. U.S. cluster sub-munitions are again an excellent weapon for this use. The dud rate will be essentially the same (i.e. about 2-3% for U. S. munitions). Just a small number of cluster projectiles will provide a heck of a lot of bomblets to drop from drones.



While I prefer the standard cluster projectile fired from tube or rocket artillery, Ukraine may be intending to drop them from drones. The choice is, of course, up to them.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/6/2179654/-Holy-Smokes-Ukraine-may-be-getting-cluster-shells

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