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2nd UPDATE: Why Did Prigozhin Fold So Quickly ? Plus, a POLL [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-07-06

More, and new, information sheds additional light on the likely misunderstanding between Prigozhin and Putin, and why Prigozhin folded so quickly. In addition, transcripts of what the generals said; a Poll on the identities of the generals; and the importance of these items. Additional videos, better pictures, and new sources are provided.

The second update is given in the first three sections, appendix and sources. The first update and the original diary follows the second update. The poll is at the very end of the diary.

Given the opacity of Russia, new information and different understandings are probable, and new updates may be needed, although not desired. Trying to make sense of what is going on in Russia remains challenging.

MISUNDERSTANDING BETWEEN PRIGOZHIN and PUTIN

Prigozhin’s trial balloons, consisting of scathing denunciations of the Minister of Defense and the reasons for starting the Special Military Operation, were misinterpreted by him as a green light to revolt and remove the Minister of Defense. Emily Ferris at RUSI (a very old and eminent UK defense think tank) closely follows Russian domestic affairs, and writes that Putin may not have even been aware of Prigozhin’s trial balloons because the Kremlin culture avoids telling Putin bad news and difficult news. And, even if he knew about Prigozhin’s statements, Putin normally lets internal fights play themselves out rather than trying to resolve them. Thus, Prigozhin would have interpreted Putin’s lack of response to his trial balloons as a green light to remove Sergei Shoigu as the MOD, whereas Putin never meant anything of the kind.

WHY PRIGOZHIN FOLDED SO QUICKLY

Prigozhin quickly folded because he lost the support of Putin and two generals who were supporting Prigozhin. (US officials made comments that support this statement. See New York Times article in the Sources.) The conditions and timing of the generals’ messages is now clearer. Both generals were filmed in the same white room, sitting at the same desk, using the same setup. (Note: The finish on the wall is called a “knockdown” texture, which is a type of finish applied to drywalls, or plaster board. Seems appropriate for the setting.) Both Generals were reading prepared messages from a teleprompter. In the case of General Surovikin, he frequently pauses, reads the next phrase from a teleprompter, and then speaks it. He shows no emotion during the entire time he is filmed. (He’s also in need of a shave.) In the case of the other general, he nervously moves his fingers, and is talking as if reading from a teleprompter. In both cases, what they say sounds more like a written message than natural speech.

A video with translation is given in the Sources. The transcript has been written out below to make it easier to read. Putin is never referred to by name, only by a stilted description of his office.

Transcript of Colonel-General Sergei Surovikin,

Deputy Commander of Russian Group of Forces Fighting in Ukraine

I urge (you) to stop. [pause] The enemy is waiting to see the exacerbation of our domestic political situation. [pause] We mustn’t play into the enemy’s hands in this difficult moment for the country. [pause] Until it’s too late, what we must do it and what is necessary, it’s to bend to the will and orders of the popularly elected President of the Russian Federation, to stop columns (convoys of Wagner troops), and to bring them back to deployment sites and concentration areas, [pause] to solve all issues in a peaceful way under the leadership of Supreme Commander of Russian Armed Forces.

Transcript of Lieutenant-General Vladimir Alexeyev

Deputy Chief of Main Intelligence Directorate of Russian General Staff

What’s going on now, it’s an egregious fact that I can’t describe in any other words than madness. It’s a stab in the back to the country and the president. Only the president has the right to appoint the leadership of armed forces, and you are trying to encroach on his power. It’s a coup d’etat. I ask on you to change your mind, don’t do it now. It’s impossible to imagine a stronger blow to the image of Russia and its armed forces, such a provocation could only be staged by enemies of Russia. This provocation could be only done by the enemies of the Russian Federation. I ask you to stop now. Armed forces did not use and will not use any weapons against you. The last thing we need is to unleash now a civil war inside the country. Change your mind.

The timing of their statements is critical in understanding Prigozhin’s decision to fold. Both were made while he was in Rostov and his column was marching to Moscow. It wasn’t until after these statements that Prigozhin decided to fold. After watching these videos, Prigozhin would immediately see that his main supporter, General Surovikin, was in custody, as was General Alexeyev. He would immediately know that his gig was up, and with the hostile statements from Putin, he now knew for certain that he had zero support. Thus, he made the only rational choice available, which was to fold.

IMPORTANCE of THIS UPDATE

This update was written to both update the diary, as well as to correct the author’s earlier identification of the general in the white room. It also adds the transcripts of what the generals said in the white room, which says a lot about what Putin wants to be called.

Misunderstandings are a major problem in war, and especially in Russia. They can lead to BIG problems, as exemplified by Prigozhin’s rebellion. Good communication is needed. Putin and Russia lack it.

We also need to understand Prigozhin. He may be important in the future, although his future doesn’t look very bright right now. But, he’s a survivor.

It is also important to keep track of key people in war. As in a Dickens’ novel, they may pop up again.

APPENDIX: IDENTITIES of the GENERALS in TWO VIDEOS

There are two videos on Saturday, June 24 showing generals speaking to or with Prigozhin. One is of Vladimir Alexeyev and the other is in Rostov-on-Don. Numerous media, as well as RUSI, identify the two generals as the same man –Vladimir Alexeyev . The author previously identified them as the same man, but said he was Igor Kostyukov, the head of Russian Military Intelligence, or GRU.

After obtaining better videos and pictures of these men, their identification became more uncertain. There are 9 different possibilities for their identification, grouped into 2 different categories. The first is the identities of both generals are known, but have 4 different possible identifications. The second is that one or both identities of the generals are unknown. This second possibility will not be considered further, as it leads nowhere. For the first group, both men may be Alexeyev, or both Kostyukov. This is the identification made in the first update. The other two choices are one is Alexeyev and the other Kostyukov, or the reverse.

The pictures are below. The top row is their official pictures found on the internet. The bottom row contains the pictures to be identified. The letters are for identification in the Poll at the end of the diary.

K — Official Picture of General Kostyukov; A — Official Picture of General Alexeyev

X — Picture of General on Patio; Y — Picture of General in White Room

The generals in the bottom row are most likely different. They are wearing different clothes. The general in the white room has camouflage clothes (need to look closely) and his undershirt, or telnyashka, has a blue stripe at the top and curves around his neck (need to look closely). The general on the patio has green fatigues, and his undershirt has a whitestripe at the top and doesn’t curve around the neck. An article from RUSI said he gave his speech and then went to Rostov, appearing 3 hours later. During this three hours, he could have changed his clothes, although this is unlikely, especially as the two uniforms are different.

The white room is in a building where General Sorovkin is being held in custody. Thus, it is reasonable to assume that the General Alexeyev is also being held in custody, especially as the high ranking GRU officers are being interrogated over what they knew and did.

In the video, the general on the patio is getting along quite well with Prigozhin, and laughing at the discomfort of the general on the left whom Prigozhin is grilling. It is doubtful that, after telling Prigozhin to fold, the general on the rightwould be so chummy. (The general on the left is the Deputy Minister of Defense, Yunus-bek Yevkurov, see Sources.)

Finally, the general on the patio has a fuller face than the man in the white room. Despite one laughing, the other serious and talking, they look to have different faces.

The next issue is their official pictures. Kostyukov’s is older than Alexeyev’s. Apart from the age, they both look quite similar. Could Russia have taken pictures of the same man, but at different ages ? The identity and likeness of intelligence officers is often considered a secret.

Using their official pictures the fuller face of Kostyukov, his flatter hairline, and his slightly flatter nose, the author’schoice is Kostyukov on the patio, and Alexeyev in the white room. This correlates with the identification of Alexeyev by the media (and RUSI) in the white room, where we have a very good picture. It also correlates with having two different men. But, it could be the other way around or the man in the patio is unknown.

This exercise demonstrates the Russian hall of mirrors.

SOURCES for 2ND UPDATE

RUSI – https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/prigozhins-rebellion-what-we-discovered-and-what-we-still-need-know and https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/wagners-march-moscow-left-unresolved-challenges-its-wake

Prigozhin Expected Support of Others in Power – https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/us/politics/russian-general-prigozhin-rebellion.html

Official Pictures of Generals

General K – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Kostyukov

General A – https://sanctions.nazk.gov.ua/en/sanction-person/1168/

General on Left in Video on Patio – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yunus-bek_Yevkurov

Telnyashka – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telnyashka

Transcripts and Video of Generals in White Room – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JerJsGHhNyk note you tube, so last

Better Video of Prigozhin and Generals on Patio with Translation – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTU3EQawbWs

FIRST UPDATE

New information shows that Prigozhin acted rationally in both starting and stopping his recent rebellion. His reasons for both starting and stopping the rebellion have become clearer. Lessons for future rebellions, including from the plot against Hitler, are added at the end along with a closing quote.

A brief summary is at the beginning. Updated Sources are given at the end and some are annotated.

This update contains the original story, with strikethroughs for statements no longer believed by the author, and new statements in bold letters. Paragraphs or sections with significant new material have “NEW” by them. In addition, an Appendix has been added. New sources are shown with the old sources.

BRIEF SUMMARY of FIRST UPDATE

New information shows that Yevgeny Prigozhin made a rational decision for starting his rebellion last weekend, even if his decision was wrong. And, he also made a rational decision for ending it.

The new information shows that he had the support of high level Generals in the Army and Air Force. Thus, he felt that he could proceed with his rebellion and succeed with his objectives, which were the removal of his enemy, the Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu, as well as the Chief of Staff & Commander of the Special Military Operation Valerie G.

He quickly folded his rebellion when he lost the support of Putin and these high level Generals, and didn’t gain the support of others in the military. His decision to end the rebellion was a rational decision once he had no support.

Lessons learned from this rebellion, along with the WWII military rebellion against Hitler is given in the last section, which is also new.

ORIGINAL STORY including FIRST UPDATE

Why did Yevgeny Prigozhin fold ? Why did he fold so quickly ? He had been planning his revolt for a while. He’s hardly a shrinking violet. This Diary offers reasons that haven’t been seen before (as far as the author knows).

Sources are at the end of the diary. Some are annotated.

BACKGROUND

Yevgeny Prigozhin has been feuding with the Russian military since at least March of this year. Initially, he fiercely complained he was being cut off from munitions and supplies.

Then, he captured Russian Lt Col Roman Venevitin because Venevitin ordered his troops to shoot at Prigozhin’s soldiers.

He also has been trying to discredit the Russian military since the start of the Bakhmut campaign by bragging that he can fight better than they can, and they are inept.

Finally, he claimed that the Russian military shelled and rocketed one of his camps, killing a number of his soldiers. This was his breaking point.

He gathered up his forces, and marched on Rostov-on-Don, and captured the HQ of the Russian command for the Russo-Ukraine War. His attack was unopposed.

He then began a march on Moscow with some of his forces. Along the way, he was attacked by Russian helicopters, and possibly other aircraft.

n Moscow, the National Guard was called out, and they began digging defensive fortifications in preparation to defend Moscow.

A Civil War was imminent.

And, just as quickly as it began, it was over.

Yevgeny Prigozhin negotiated a settlement with Russia, using Belarus as the intermediary. Prigozhin then went to Minsk, the capital of Belarus, and was forgiven — at least for now. His soldiers returned to their field barracks in Ukraine, and were given amnesty, also for now.

NEW BACKGROUND — First Update

After this story was written, new information became available from major media outlets. The Financial Times (of London) is the major new source used by the author.

General Surovikin, head of the Russian Air Force, was close to Prigozhin and knew about his plans for a rebellion. It is doubtful that he told his boss, General Gerasimov, about these plans, or else the rebellion would have been quashed before it began.

General Kostyukov, head of Russian Military Intelligence (GRU), also appears to have known about Prigozhin’s plans. He did not oppose Prigozhin’s taking over the Russian Military HQ in Rostov-on-Don, and was seen joking with Prigozhin on the patio after the takeover. See the Appendix for his identification. Russian military Intelligence is under investigation, which means that Kostyukov is under investigation.

Whether these Generals have been arrested or not is unclear. Surovikin’s family haven’t heard from him in the last 3 days, which isn’t a good sign. We are unlikely to hear much about Kostyukov, as people in his position normally stay under wraps.

PRIG​OZHIN​​​​​​ MADE a RATIONAL DECISION to REBEL — NEW Section for First Update

Based upon the new information above, it is the author’s opinion that Prigozhin made a rational decision to rebel, even if it turned out to be the wrong decision. In Prigozhin’s mind, he had the support of two key Generals, one of whom was close to Prigozhin. (If he didn’t have their support, at least one of them should have told him this.)

Prigozhin’s troops had recently been killed by Russia using artillery and missiles. He had to put a stop to this, or see the continued decimation of his army.

Prigozhin also sent up a trial balloon to gauge Putin’s reaction. He made a very inflammatory speech denouncing the reason for starting the Special Military Operation and blaming the Minister of Defense (MOD), Sergei Shoigu, for deceiving the country. He also said that negotiations could have averted the present fighting. Putin failed to react publicly, and didn’t criticize Prigozhin for these outrageous statements and attacks on the MOD. Thus, Prigozhin had a rational reason to believe that Putin wouldn’t oppose the removal of the MOD.

WHY FOLD — this section has a number of NEW changes in First Update

Well, we will never know for certain. Yevgeny Prigozhin isn’t known for his honesty. And, people often say what they think will make them look good, and other people will accept. And, sometimes they don’t really know why they do what they do.

In the opinion of this author, Prigozhin’s reasons for folding are as follows.

His stated reason is to avoid Russian bloodshed. This is a noble reason, and may be true. However, Prigozhin has hardly been one to avoid bloodshed. Or, maybe the bloodshed he is avoiding is his blood, as well as his soldiers’ blood.

His most likely reason is that he lost the support and protection of his patron, Russian President Putin. Without Putin’s backing or acquiescence, Prigozhin knew his rebellion would fail.

A related reason is that Prigozhin’s goal was to become the Russian Minister of Defense (MOD), and run the war as he saw fit — not to replace Putin as the head of Russia. He never directly attacked Putin by name — Prigozhin only said that Putin was badly mistaken about him. (See Sources for explanation of author’s reasoning.)

Thus, Prigozhin’s rebellion and march on Moscow wasn’t to remove Putin as head of Russia. It was to remove Sergei Shoigu as the MOD, and Valery Gerasimov as the Chief of Staff and Commander of the Special Military Operation. But, to do this he had to have Putin’s blessing or acquiescence. When he lost it, he quickly shut down his rebellion and march on Moscow

There are two other reasons for his decision that are related to each other, but assume that Prigozhin would act without Putin’s support, which he was unlikely to do. But, he may have been trying to force Putin’s hand by his actions.

The most important of these other reasons is Prigozhin’s failure to gain support from the Russian Army and Air Force — from the Generals down to the lowest officers. General Sergei Surovikin, head of the Air Force was a key player, and refused to support Prigozhin, Surovikin had been a supporter of Prigozhin, and was needed to either keep the AF off his soldiers, or to use the AF on Prigozhin’s behalf. (While some of the enlisted soldiers may have supported Prigozhin, there was no mass defection to him.)

The other major reason for Prigozhin’s folding is that he lost the support of Generals Surovikin and Kostyukov. And he didn’t gain the support of others in the military. Without the support of the Russian Army and Air Force, Prigozhin knew he was outnumbered, out gunned, and fully exposed to attacks from the air. And since Russia was setting up defensive lines in front of Moscow, he knew he was going to have a bloody fight on his hands.

WHY FOLD SO QUICKLY

Prigozhin didn’t have any time to waste. His column was going to reach Moscow on Sunday, and a bloody fight was sure to ensue. He was unlikely to be forgiven for these actions. Thus, he negotiated the best deal he could get, stopped his column, pulled out of Rostov-on-Don and flew to Belarus. Thus, his decision to fold was a rational decision.

LESSONS for FUTURE REBELLIONS & CLOSING COMMENT — NEW in First Update

What lessons can be learned for future rebellions — both from this rebellion, as well as the one against Hitler. There surely will be patriotic people in the Russian military, and possibly the FSB, who want to rebel against the Special Military Operation sometime in the future.

The failed rebellion against Hitler in WWII is a useful example. It was an attempt by a group of military officers to assassinate Hitler on July 20, 1944. One of their members planted a briefcase bomb under the conference room table of a large meeting, and left the room to use the bathroom. During his absence, someone moved the briefcase further from Hitler. When the bomb went off, it killed and injured a lot of attendees, but not Herr Hitler. The plotters, and others with knowledge of the plot, were rooted out and killed.

The first, and primary lesson, is SUCCEED ! Failure is very bad for your health.

The second lesson is not to count on Putin’s support for the changes you want to make. Putin has to be removed from power, in order to remove his lieutenants from power

CLOSING — NEW in First Update

In closing, any diary about Russian internal affairs should always bear in mind Winston Churchill’s famous quote: Russia is “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma”.

APPENDIX in First Update

This appendix is superseded by the appendix in the second update.

SOURCES — includes NEW sources for first update in bold

The sources try to be in the order that the subject appears in the text.

Financial Times — www.ft.com/…

Guardian — www.theguardian.com/...

US Intelligence Report on Prigozhin’s plans — www.cnn.com/...

Background —en.wikipedia.org/... And many other sources in the media. Example: www.theguardian.com/...

Capture of Russian Lt. Col. — www.theguardian.com/…

Prigozhin’s goal wasn’t to remove Putin — www.nytimes.com/…. Also Financial Times above

Prigozhin’s goal was to remove S. Shoigu — www.theguardian.com/.... at the 1:44 EDT time and end of story. “Prigozhin demanded the removal of Shoigu at the start of his mutiny, which he called a “march for justice”.” www.cnn.com/… On Wednesday, June 28, the Wall Street Journal, per CNN, reported that Prigozhin planned to capture Shoigu and the Chief of Staff & Commander of the “Special Military Operation”, General Valery Gerasimov. [Author’s Note: This diary was written on June 27 for publication on the afternoon of June 28. The Wall Street Journal article was a surprise, and provides further support of this diary.]

Prigozhin’s goal to become MOD: Author’s opinion for the following reason.

If Prigozhin wasn’t going to unseat Putin, then the only other goal he could have was to remove his enemy — Sergei Shoigu the sitting MOD. And, who better to become the new MOD than Prigozhin. Prigozhin couldn’t say this out loud, as there are a number of people who would want this job. But this is the only way that he could protect himself and his Wagner forces from another MOD who might turn on him.

Plot against Hitler — en.wikipedia.org/...

Official Picture of Igor Kostyukov —en.wikipedia.org/…

Picture of Man Asking Prigozhin to call off his rebellion — Twitter, Christo Grozev @christogrozev, June 23, 2023, 6:19 PM

Screen Grab of a Man Talking with Prigozhin — The Sun, below

Prigozhin says Putin is “deeply mistaken” Video posted by The Telegraph Newspaper (UK) below.

Picture for Poll Below

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