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Virginia Primary - Post Mortem thoughts HD 57 - when leaving it all on the field isn't enough [1]

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Date: 2023-06-30

Note: These are all my personal observations and thoughts, I’m not speaking for the campaign.

Backgound:

I’ve known Bob Shippee since 2016, when the election of Trump motivated me to get active and I joined the Henrico Democratic Committee. Bob was our Treasurer then, and over the years I observed him volunteering at his polling location, helping with sign distribution and dressing the polls at 4am. Last year I asked for help with getting signatures to get Herb Jones on the ballot to oppose Rob Wittman, after losing Abigail Spanberger to redistricting. We only had a couple of weeks to get the signatures and get Herb Jones on the ballot. This is not an easy ask, it’s HARD to get voters to sign a piece of paper to get someone on the ballot. I’ve found if you know the person, it’s much easier. I asked Bob Shippee if he could sign and help get me some signatures. He told me to come over to his neighborhood, and I did. In short order, we had 2 pages of signatures to hand in. In the past I found it takes a few hours of canvassing to just get 1 page of signatures. Just one example of how he jumps in without hesitation to help Democrats. I also observed him volunteering on other campaigns, helping with large sign placement.

2022:

When Bob declared candidacy for the House of Delegates District 57, a new open, more competitive seat that opened up due to redistricting, I was ecstatic, and immediately declared my support for him. Even when Susanna Gibson also declared her candidacy later that summer, I didn’t waver in my support for Bob. Susanna was a total unknown that joined the Henrico Democrats AFTER declaring her candidacy. I’ve never seen her volunteer with the Henrico Democrats or any campaign that I’ve volunteered on in the past.

I started canvassing for Bob in the fall of 2022, while also handing out literature for the Congressional campaign that fall. This was to get name recognition, and let them know there was an election the following year to pay attention to.

2023:

By January, Bob had finished his first pass of our target voters, and began the second pass. He would go to all locations regardless how remote it was. We had 3 rural precincts in Goochland County. I remember a story of him trying to use GPS to find the house and dogs chasing him up the drive. He made it safely, and hopefully convinced the 3 voters to vote for him.

We had our signatures first, but some of mine were thrown out because I had gotten them the 1st of January, and the rules had been changed and Jan. 1, no longer counted. The rule changed from first candidate to have them to a date in the future when both candidates would turn them in and a coin toss came out in her favor, so she was first on the ballot, even though we had collected them and had them ready weeks ahead of the deadline. First strike.

In March, I started canvassing more in earnest for Bob. We seemed to get positive reception from constituents. I was able to organize a small postcard group, and we wrote a total of 5,000 personal handwritten postcards that were delivered about the time people started receiving their ballots. The opponent sent out a form letter to voters. We got more volunteers, and were able to complete our second pass of the voters.

They were pretty even in fundraising at this point and had almost equal budgets. In April, early May, I started to see some puzzling results. Early voting started May 5th, and a flurry of mailers were sent to voters. Where I hadn’t seen much support for Susanna Gibson (or they wouldn’t tell me), on the third pass, I started to get puzzling reactions from voters at the doors. One woman, had met Bob twice in person at the doors (what candidate does that?), had a very favorable impression of him, said he had “heart” and was “humble”, but then there was a but. Even though Susanna’s campaign hadn’t personally or the candidate herself personally knocked on her door, she started to waver. “They both look good on paper”. I went into my best persuasion mode, giving countless examples of how Bob had shown up for the Henrico Dems and the community over the years, and had the experience to hit the ground running were he to be elected. I felt like I was doing a Master’s thesis defense level of detail, but she said she was leaning back to Bob at this point. I didn’t have full confidence she would stay there.

I worked with the campaign, and asked the field director to cut me turfs of “undecided” voters. I wanted to dig into this phenomenon, and try to understand and combat it if at all possible. I did several of these turfs in 4 separate precincts, and after talking to undecided voters, felt they were swayed about 75-80% of the time in Bob’s favor after passionately giving example after example of his experience and community service. However, that was only a small pocket of voters, at most I talked to 30-45% of the voters on each turf. Many voters had received and already filled out their mail in ballots that weren’t home and we couldn’t talk to.

The last month to month and a half of the campaign, money just started to pour into Susanna Gibson’s campaign. Well heeled family members were able to write $7,500 checks or at least $1,500 checks at a time. I had donated $400 for postage for the postcards, but I could not give more. I did not realize there were NO LIMITS to donations for state races like at the federal level. I did give him my time, and knocked on about 2,769 doors myself. The team over all did around 18,000 doors. I’ve always believed in the ground game could combat money, but not in this case. Susannah’s campaign was able to get their commercial out a week earlier than us, and flood social media with her influx of cash. In addition, getting former Governor Northam to endorse her, did sway some voters.

I did get feedback on the doors that some of her canvassers (perhaps paid) didn’t have a compelling pitch. One house told me the canvasser said “Hey, I met her once, and she will vote for whatever the Democrats want”. Turned off the voters and they supported Bob. Even with not so great canvassers, and poll workers, she still won by 10+ points. Her poll workers showed up late and asked ME when the polls opened, and there was clearly the sign at the entrance to the parking lot stating the hours.

Several reproduction rights/women’s groups endorsed and sent volunteers and money to Susanna’s campaign.

We canvassed my precinct 4 times, with me personally knocking on doors that had seen me year after year volunteering. We even lost my precinct with election day voters. Big disappointment for me personally.

Final thoughts:

There was a very strong current in the electorate to elect a woman candidate. Some voters told me they were voting for gender, not based on experience. Not one male candidate won a primary that was not an incumbent. Even voters at the doors that supported Susannah, made up excuses for her shortcomings. “Oh, someone will train her at the General Assembly”, “She works, so doesn’t have time to attend Mom’s Demand meetings”, etc. Money and the former Governor’s endorsement were flooding her campaign at a critical time, wiping out the initial advantage we had.

People need to look at the candidate and not as a reflex check the box on the ballot for a woman. I’m sad at this time, that we passed on the more on the job ready candidate with many credentials, and got swayed by commercials and mailers. Especially in the last couple days post election, when the Ontario wildfire pollution is making our air unhealthy, we bypassed a candidate that had worked at the General Assembly for years for clean energy legislation with the Sierra Club.

I’m moving out of the district, so I will vote elsewhere in the general election. I will try to organize in my new community and start again from the ground up. I’m also going to push for campaign finance reform, as it shouldn’t be who ever gets the most money or knows the most people or related to people with money wins. We shouldn’t be spending a half a million dollars on a Democratic primary.

For more information, you can look up the money and voting for this race at vpap.org

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