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UPDATE: Why Did Prigozhin Fold So Quickly ? Plus, He Was RATIONAL & Lessons Learned [1]
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Date: 2023-06-30
New information shows that Prigozhin acted rationally in both starting and stopping his recent rebellion. His reasons for both starting and stopping the rebellion have become clearer. Lessons for future rebellions, including from the plot against Hitler, are added at the end along with a closing quote.
A brief summary is at the beginning. Updated Sources are given at the end and some are annotated.
This update contains the original story, with strikethroughs for statements no longer believed by the author, and new statements in bold letters. Paragraphs or sections with significant new material have “NEW” by them. In addition, an Appendix has been added. New sources are shown with the old sources.
BRIEF SUMMARY of UPDATE
New information shows that Yevgeny Prigozhin made a rational decision for starting his rebellion last weekend, even if his decision was wrong. And, he also made a rational decision for ending it.
The new information shows that he had the support of high level Generals in the Army and Air Force. Thus, he felt that he could proceed with his rebellion and succeed with his objectives, which were the removal of his enemy, the Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu, as well as the Chief of Staff & Commander of the Special Military Operation Valerie G.
He quickly folded his rebellion when he lost the support of Putin and these high level Generals, and didn’t gain the support of others in the military. His decision to end the rebellion was a rational decision once he had no support.
Lessons learned from this rebellion, along with the WWII military rebellion against Hitler is given in the last section, which is also new.
ORIGINAL STORY including UPDATE
Why did Yevgeny Prigozhin fold ? Why did he fold so quickly ? He had been planning his revolt for a while. He’s hardly a shrinking violet. This Diary offers reasons that haven’t been seen before (as far as the author knows).
Sources are at the end of the diary. Some are annotated.
BACKGROUND
Yevgeny Prigozhin has been feuding with the Russian military since at least March of this year. Initially, he fiercely complained he was being cut off from munitions and supplies.
Then, he captured Russian Lt Col Roman Venevitin because Venevitin ordered his troops to shoot at Prigozhin’s soldiers.
He also has been trying to discredit the Russian military since the start of the Bakhmut campaign by bragging that he can fight better than they can, and they are inept.
Finally, he claimed that the Russian military shelled and rocketed one of his camps, killing a number of his soldiers. This was his breaking point.
He gathered up his forces, and marched on Rostov-on-Don, and captured the HQ of the Russian command for the Russo-Ukraine War. His attack was unopposed.
He then began a march on Moscow with some of his forces. Along the way, he was attacked by Russian helicopters, and possibly other aircraft.
In Moscow, the National Guard was called out, and they began digging defensive fortifications in preparation to defend Moscow.
A Civil War was imminent.
And, just as quickly as it began, it was over.
Yevgeny Prigozhin negotiated a settlement with Russia, using Belarus as the intermediary. Prigozhin then went to Minsk, the capital of Belarus, and was forgiven — at least for now. His soldiers returned to their field barracks in Ukraine, and were given amnesty, also for now.
NEW BACKGROUND
After this story was written, new information became available from major media outlets. The Financial Times (of London) is the major new source used by the author.
General Surovikin, head of the Russian Air Force, was close to Prigozhin and knew about his plans for a rebellion. It is doubtful that he told his boss, General Gerasimov, about these plans, or else the rebellion would have been quashed before it began.
General Kostyukov, head of Russian Military Intelligence (GRU), also appears to have known about Prigozhin’s plans. He did not oppose Prigozhin’s taking over the Russian Military HQ in Rostov-on-Don, and was seen joking with Prigozhin on the patio after the takeover. See the Appendix for his identification. Russian military Intelligence is under investigation, which means that Kostyukov is under investigation.
Whether these Generals have been arrested or not is unclear. Surovikin’s family haven’t heard from him in the last 3 days, which isn’t a good sign. We are unlikely to hear much about Kostyukov, as people in his position normally stay under wraps.
PRIGOZHIN MADE a RATIONAL DECISION to REBEL — NEW Section
Based upon the new information above, it is the author’s opinion that Prigozhin made a rational decision to rebel, even if it turned out to be the wrong decision. In Prigozhin’s mind, he had the support of two key Generals, one of whom was close to Prigozhin. (If he didn’t have their support, at least one of them should have told him this.)
Prigozhin’s troops had recently been killed by Russia using artillery and missiles. He had to put a stop to this, or see the continued decimation of his army.
Prigozhin also sent up a trial balloon to gauge Putin’s reaction. He made a very inflammatory speech denouncing the reason for starting the Special Military Operation and blaming the Minister of Defense (MOD), Sergei Shoigu, for deceiving the country. He also said that negotiations could have averted the present fighting. Putin failed to react publicly, and didn’t criticize Prigozhin for these outrageous statements and attacks on the MOD. Thus, Prigozhin had a rational reason to believe that Putin wouldn’t oppose the removal of the MOD.
[END]
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https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/30/2178448/-UPDATE-Why-Did-Prigozhin-Fold-So-Quickly-Plus-He-Was-RATIONAL-Lessons-Learned
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