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Why Did Prigozhin Fold So Quickly ? [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2023-06-28
Why did Yevgeny Prigozhin fold ? Why did he fold so quickly ? He had been planning his revolt for a while. He’s hardly a shrinking violet. This Diary offers reasons that haven’t been seen before (as far as the author knows).
Sources are at the end of the diary. Some are annotated.
BACKGROUND
Yevgeny Prigozhin has been feuding with the Russian military since at least March of this year. Initially, he fiercely complained he was being cut off from munitions and supplies.
Then, he captured Russian Lt Col Roman Venevitin because Venevitin ordered his troops to shoot at Prigozhin’s soldiers.
He also has been trying to discredit the Russian military since the start of the Bakhmut campaign by bragging that he can fight better than they can, and they are inept.
Finally, he claimed that the Russian military shelled and rocketed one of his camps, killing a number of his soldiers. This was his breaking point.
He gathered up his forces, and marched on Rostov-on-Don, and captured the HQ of the Russian command for the Russo-Ukraine War. His attack was unopposed.
He then began a march on Moscow with some of his forces. Along the way, he was attacked by Russian helicopters, and possibly other aircraft.
In Moscow, the National Guard was called out, and they began digging defensive fortifications in preparation to defend Moscow.
A Civil War was imminent.
And, just as quickly as it began, it was over.
Yevgeny Prigozhin negotiated a settlement with Russia, using Belarus as the intermediary. Prigozhin then went to Minsk, the capital of Belarus, and was forgiven — at least for now. His soldiers returned to their field barracks in Ukraine, and were given amnesty, also for now.
WHY FOLD
Well, we will never know for certain. Yevgeny Prigozhin isn’t known for his honesty. And, people often say what they think will make them look good, and other people will accept. And, sometimes they don’t really know why they do what they do.
In the opinion of this author, Prigozhin’s reasons for folding are as follows.
His stated reason is to avoid Russian bloodshed. This is a noble reason, and may be true. However, Prigozhin has hardly been one to avoid bloodshed. Or, maybe the bloodshed he is avoiding is his blood, as well as his soldiers blood.
His most likely reason is that he lost the support and protection of his patron, Russian President Putin. Without Putin’s backing, Prigozhin knew his rebellion would fail.
A related reason is that Prigozhin’s goal was to become the Russian Minister of Defense (MOD), and run the war as he saw fit — not to replace Putin as the head of Russia. He never directly attacked Putin by name — Prigozhin only said that Putin was badly mistaken about him. (See Sources for explanation of author’s reasoning.)
Thus, Prigozhin’s rebellion and march on Moscow wasn’t to remove Putin as head of Russia. It was to remove Sergei Shoigu as the MOD. But, to do this he had to have Putin’s blessing. When he lost it, he quickly shut down his rebellion and march on Moscow
There are two other reasons for his decision that are related to each other, but assume that Prigozhin would act without Putin’s support, which he was unlikely to do. But, he may have been trying to force Putin’s hand by his actions.
The most important of these other reasons is Prigozhin’s failure to gain support from the Russian Army and Air Force — from the Generals down to the lowest officers. General Sergei Surovikin, head of the Air Force was a key player, and refused to support Prigozhin, Surovikin had been a supporter of Prigozhin, and was needed to either keep the AF off his soldiers, or to use the AF on Prigozhin’s behalf. (While some of the enlisted soldiers may have supported Prigozhin, there was no mass defection to him.)
Without the support of the Russian Army and Air Force, Prigozhin knew he was outnumbered, out gunned, and fully exposed to attacks from the air. And since Russia was setting up defensive lines in front of Moscow, he knew he was going to have a bloody fight on his hands.
WHY FOLD SO QUICKLY
Prigozhin didn’t have any time to waste. His column was going to reach Moscow on Sunday, and a bloody fight was sure to ensue. He was unlikely to be forgiven for these actions. Thus, he negotiated the best deal he could get, stopped his column, pulled out of Rostov-on-Don and flew to Belarus.
SOURCES
The sources try to be in the order that the subject appears in the text
US Intelligence Report on Prigozhin’s plans — www.cnn.com/...
Background —en.wikipedia.org/... And many other sources in the media. Example: www.theguardian.com/...
Capture of Russian Lt. Col. — www.theguardian.com/…
Prigozhin’s goal wasn’t to remove Putin — www.nytimes.com/...
Prigozhin’s goal was to remove S. Shoigu — www.theguardian.com/.... at the 1:44 EDT time and end of story. “Prigozhin demanded the removal of Shoigu at the start of his mutiny, which he called a “march for justice”.” www.cnn.com/… On Wednesday, June 28, the Wall Street Journal, per CNN, reported that Prigozhin planned to capture Shoigu and the Chief of Staff & Commander of the “Special Military Operation”, General Valery Gerasimov. [Author’s Note: This diary was written on June 27 for publication on the afternoon of June 28. The Wall Street Journal article was a surprise, and provides further support of this diary.]
Prigozhin’s goal to become MOD: Author’s opinion for the following reason.
If Prigozhin wasn’t going to unseat Putin, then the only other goal he could have was to remove his enemy — Sergei Shoigu the sitting MOD. And, who better to become the new MOD than Prigozhin. Prigozhin couldn’t say this out loud, as there are a number of people who would want this job. But this is the only way that he could protect himself and his Wagner forces from another MOD who might turn on him.
Prigozhin says Putin is “deeply mistaken” Video posted by The Telegraph Newspaper (UK) below.
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