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Ukraine Invasion Day 491: "You are in the world of myth" [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2023-06-28
UK MoD minister Ben Wallace: “During its summer campaign, Ukraine has already liberated approximately 300 km² of its territory. This is more than Russia captured during its entire winter campaign .There is no indication that Russia still has the untapped ground troops needed to counter the multiple threats from Ukraine along the 200-kilometer line from Bakhmut to the left bank of the Dnieper.”
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four sectors of the front. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces are conducting offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction, along the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia administrative border, and in western Zaporizhia. [36] The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks south of Kreminna. [37] Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov stated in an interview with Financial Times published on June 28 that the “main event” of the Ukrainian counteroffensive has not yet started. [38]
Russian forces conducted a strike on civilian infrastructure in Kramatorsk in Donetsk Oblast on the night of June 27 . Ukrainian Donetsk Oblast Military Administration Head Pavlo Kyrylenko reported that Russian forces struck a residential area and a restaurant. [52] Ukrainian Presidential Office Head Andriy Yermak reported that the second missile struck Bilenke (on the northeastern outskirts of Kramatorsk). [53] Russian sources attempted to justify the strike on Kramatorsk by claiming that Ukrainian commanders had been at the restaurant, although ISW has not observed evidence to verify this claim. [54] Russian forces likely violated international law by conducting an indiscriminate attack on civilian infrastructure. [55]
"You are in the world of myth." A Russian MP has denied his country targeted a restaurant after a missile strike on a pizzeria in Kramatorsk killed at least 11 people. Yevgeny Popov tells @mattfrei Russia "will only attack military infrastructure". pic.twitter.com/2kftQ1mw1Z
x “It is not the collapse of Putin’s regime that Washington should fear, therefore, but its continued survival.”
https://t.co/8KRmA4zri3 — John Sipher (@john_sipher) June 28, 2023
The question of who gets punished for the mutiny carries high stakes for the Russian leadership, especially because some of Mr. Prigozhin’s key allies and sympathizers are believed to be inside the military and the government.
There was intense focus in Moscow about the fate of Gen. Sergei Surovikin, a senior military official whom Mr. Prigozhin praised publicly and who is said to have known about the rebellion in advance; he has not been seen publicly since early Saturday. Several pro-war Russian blogs reported that the authorities were investigating military service members with ties to Mr. Prigozhin, but those reports could not be independently confirmed.
[...]
In the aftermath of the rebellion, when Wagner forces seized a military installation and headed toward Moscow, he said, Mr. Putin appeared focused on the economic motives guiding Mr. Prigozhin. And he signaled that the authorities would seek out “who signed what and lobbied for orders, or for uniforms, or for weapons.”
www.nytimes.com/...
x Putin says Wagner was entirely financed by the Russian state through the MOD and the state budget.
From May 2022 to May 2023, the state paid Wagner 86 billion rubles and Prigozhin's catering company earned a further 80 billion, Putin says. pic.twitter.com/nx7bKhwPhM — max seddon (@maxseddon) June 27, 2023
The Kremlin will likely attempt to balance a desire to mitigate the widespread disdain for MoD establishment figures that fueled Wagner’s rebellion while also trying to disempower those who may have sympathized with the rebellion. Segments of the pro-war ultranationalist community and the Russian military have routinely criticized Gerasimov and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu for their management of the war in Ukraine, and Prigozhin’s avowed goal of forcibly removing the two generals suggests that the Kremlin may view Gerasimov’s and Shoigu’s unpopularity as a direct threat to Putin’s ability to retain support among key constituencies and the military. [13] ISW previously assessed that the Kremlin is likely attempting to signal that Shoigu will maintain his position, but the Kremlin has yet to promote Gerasimov in a similar way in the days following the rebellion. [14] The Kremlin may attempt to placate disdain for the MoD establishment by reducing Gerasimov’s role in operations in Ukraine, although he is highly likely to maintain, at least nominally, the position of overall theater commander and his long-term role as Chief of the General Staff. ISW has previously assessed that Gerasimov’s removal from either position would be too damaging to Putin’s and the MoD’s reputation. Putin could attempt to avoid the fallout from future command changes by increasingly rewarding commanders with responsibility beyond their official positions. [15] Putin is likely further incentivized not to publicly replace Gerasimov out of fears of legitimizing rebellion as a successful means of blackmail. The speculations that Gerasimov’s role is diminishing in Ukraine may suggest that Putin is diverting Gerasimov to another effort instead of completely demoting him. Putin likely values Gerasimov for his loyalty above all else, and he may task Gerasimov with staff changes within the MoD focused on loyalty should the Kremlin decide to overhaul the Russian military leadership. [16]
www.understandingwar.org/...
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