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Nevada State Senate: 2024 Ratings [1]

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Date: 2023-06-27

Next up in my state legislative series is the Nevada State Senate. The current balance in the chamber is 13D – 8R, meaning that Democrats can afford a net loss of at most two seats to maintain control of the chamber and need a net gain of at least one seat to gain a supermajority. Establishing a supermajority in the chamber would be especially useful, as it would allow Democrats to override the Republican governor’s veto (provided Dems also maintain their supermajority in the lower chamber). Note that the chamber has staggered terms, with about half the chamber on the ballot every two years, meaning that the 2024 election will be the first time that the new (post-redistricting) boundaries will be used for these particular seats. That being said, I am going to use 2022 (and not 2024) to delineate between the old and new boundaries, as the new boundaries did technically go into effect last cycle.

For NV, the district numbers on the new map generally correspond to the district number on the old map, making previous election results (of the old districts) fairly meaningful. As per usual, I only plan on looking at non-competitive seats (“Safe Republican” or “Safe Democrat”) if they are projected to flip. Note that while it has generally taken me multiple articles to look at all the competitive seats in a legislative chamber, I am going to be looking at all of Nevada’s competitive senate seats in just this article, as there are only five of them on the ballot this cycle. Because I am looking at the entire chamber, I have also included a chart at the top of the post with all the competitive seats, as well as my overall assessment of the chamber. (These would typically be reserved for my summary posts.) I am assuming, unless otherwise noted, that the incumbents are running for reelection, though it should be pointed out that some of the seats will automatically be open due to term limits.

I am going to be looking at SD 5, SD 6, SD 11, SD 15, and SD 18, all of which are based in Clark County (home to Las Vegas), except for SD 15, which is based in Washoe County (home to Reno).

Nevada Senate District 5

NV SD 5 is home to the community of Henderson, located just south of Las Vegas. Under the pre-2022 boundaries, SD 5 was a highly competitive district, if not slightly Dem-leaning, with Barack Obama carrying the seat by just over 6 points in 2012, Hillary Clinton carrying it by 2 points, and Joe Biden carrying it by a little more than 3 points. The district also featured competitive senate races, with Democrat Joyce Woodhouse winning the open seat by 4 points in 2012 and being reelected by a very narrow margin of less than a percentage point in 2016. The GOP managed to flip the district in 2020, with Republican Carrie Buck winning the open seat by a razor-thin margin of half a percentage point. (Note that Buck was also the 2016 Republican challenger for the seat and there was also a Libertarian on the ballot in both 2016 and 2020.) The 2022 boundaries drastically altered the district’s geography, though the new seat is only a few points redder than before, as Trump would have now carried it by less than a percentage point in 2020. The district should be competitive again this cycle and a fairly decent-pick up opportunity for Dems, especially given that Buck will be facing a lot of unfamiliar territory, even with slightly more favorable boundaries. I’m classifying SD 5 as a Toss Up.

Nevada Senate District 6

NV SD 6 is located almost entirely within the Las Vegas city limits and contains western parts of the city. SD 6 was somewhat Democratic leaning at the presidential level under the pre-2022 boundaries, with Obama (in 2012), Clinton, and Biden all carrying the seat by about 5 to 7 points. The district had been more competitive down-ballot, with Republicans holding the seat until 2016, when Democrat Nicole Cannizzaro flipped the district, as she narrowly won the open race by less than 2 points. In 2020, Cannizzaro was reelected by an even narrower 1-point margin, running a few points behind Biden. The 2022 boundaries made the district about 2 points bluer, with Biden’s margin expanding to between 8 and 9 points. SD 6 should be competitive this cycle, given how close the previous races have been. While it might be tempting to give Cannizzaro the edge, given that the new boundaries are slightly more favorable, I’m going to cautiously classify the district as a Toss Up.

Nevada Senate District 11

NV SD 11 encompasses some of the southern suburbs of Las Vegas, such as parts of Enterprise. SD 11 was generally a safe district for Democrats under the pre-2022 boundaries, with appointed incumbent Democrat Dallas Harris easily winning by just over 17 points in 2020 and Biden simultaneously carrying the district by a similar margin. However, the 2022 boundaries altered SD 11 fairly drastically, with the new district taking in a large percentage of the pre-2022 iteration of SD 9, which was a more competitive district, as it supported Biden by just under 8 points (and Clinton and Obama by slightly larger margins), and had actually flipped to the Republicans in 2014, though Dem Melanie Scheible was able to flip it back in 2018, as she won the open seat by just over 11 points. SD 11, under the new boundaries, is very similar partisan-wise to SD 9, with Biden performing about a percentage point better in the former district. Harris should be favored, but it seems reasonable to expect a competitive race, especially given that she will be facing quite a bit of new territory. I’m classifying SD 11 as Lean Democrat.

Nevada Senate District 15

NV SD 15 contains some of Reno’s northern and western suburbs, such as Sun Valley, as well as parts of the city proper, such as the neighborhood of West Reno. Under the pre-2022 boundaries, SD 15 was a competitive district that had moved a few points to the left in recent years, with Biden carrying it by just under 8 points, after having supported Obama in 2012 by just under 4 points and Clinton by just under 3 points. Democrats were less successful down-ballot, with Republican Heidi Gansert winning the open seat in 2016 by a fairly decent 11-point margin, though it should be pointed out that there was a Libertarian candidate on the ballot who got about 5% of the total vote. Gansert was narrowly reelected by between 3 and 4 points in 2020. It should be noted that Gansert, who is currently Minority Leader in the chamber, has some fairly moderate positions, which may help explain her strengths as a candidate. The 2022 redistricting made SD 15 several points bluer, with Biden’s margin expanding to over 15 points. The Democrats should be favored to flip the seat, given how favorable the new district is, but it still seems reasonable to expect a competitive race, given Gansert’s previous overperformances. I’m classifying SD 15 as Lean Democrat, though I could see shifting the district to “Likely” or even “Safe” Democrat if Gansert opts not to run for reelection.

Nevada Senate District 18

NV SD 18 contains northwestern parts of Las Vegas, such as Centennial Hills. Under the pre-2022 boundaries, SD 18 had been a GOP-leaning district that was somewhat competitive at the presidential level, as it supported Mitt Romney by about 5 points in 2012 and Donald Trump by just over 10 points in 2016 and a slightly narrower margin of just under 9 points in 2020. The 2012 senate race was quite competitive, with Republican Scott Hammond winning the open seat by less than 3 points in 2012, though the subsequent senate races weren’t particularly close, with Hammond being reelected by between 12 and 13 points in both 2016 and 2020. The 2022 boundaries made SD 18 slightly bluer, with Trump’s 2020 margin shrinking to under 7 points. It should be noted that the seat is open this cycle, as Hammond is term limited. The Republicans should be favored to hold the seat, considering the favorable fundamentals, but the district should be competitive, given the lack of an incumbent. I’m classifying SD 18 as Lean Republican.

My overall rating for the chamber is Safe Democrat. The Republicans need a net gain of at least three seats for control of the chamber and there are only two competitive Dem-held seats. More interestingly, it’s a Toss Up as to whether the Dems have a regular majority of a supermajority. The Democrats are already favored to flip one seat, SD 15, which is enough to give them a supermajority, provided they hold on to all their current seats, with the toss-up SD 6 being the most vulnerable, followed by SD 11. As stated in the article, the Dems also have a strong chance of flipping the GOP-held toss-up SD 5, though this seat is unlikely going to decide the supermajority, as it is several points redder than SD 6. If Democrats are able to flip the former district, they likely already have enough for seats for a supermajority. This is even more true for SD 18, the only other competitive GOP-held seat in the chamber. Still, the Dems would want to have as large of a cushion in their supermajority as possible, as it isn’t guaranteed that all members of the party will vote together.

Thanks to cnanalysis (for the 2020 pres results of the current districts), and Daily Kos Elections (for the statewide/presidential results of the pre-2022 districts).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/27/2177901/-Nevada-State-Senate-2024-Ratings

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