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Belarus may house 24,000 Wagner Troops [1]

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Date: 2023-06-27

More disinformation as Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko welcomes Wagner troops in their flight from Russia. Belarus plans to build a base to deploy 8,000 PMC Wagner forces in Mogilev. Prigozhin’s jet just landed in Minsk.

The opposition in Belarus was prepared to stage an armed coup amid the revolt by the Wagner private military company in Russia, but was prevented from fulfilling its plans, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has claimed, according to the state-run BelTa news agency. eng.belta.by

Wagner PMC soldiers can sign a contract w/Russia’s Defense Ministry, return home or go to Belarus.

“It looks really raw for Belarus that Belarus will now now host no less than an army of mercenaries, of cutthroats, who are very well trained, who are ruthless, who are effective in killing, who have been implicated in war crimes,” Valery Kavaleuski, a foreign affairs representative for the Belarusian opposition’s shadow government told The Daily Beast. “On all counts, this is really bad news. This creates grave threats to the Belarusian society.” The democratic opposition in Belarus has long said that Russia’s use of Belarusian territory to stage troops and launch attacks into Ukraine has grown into a kind of partial occupation, such that Belarus needs to be deoccupied, as The Daily Beast has reported. Now, with the prospect of Wagner mercenaries moving in, the hybrid occupation seems to be growing by the day. And while Lukashenko is allegedly letting Prigozhin enter Belarus as part of the agreement to call off the mutiny against Russia and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, it’s not clear how much control Lukashenko will have over Prigozhin, Kenneth Yalowitz, a former U.S. ambassador to Belarus warned. “For Lukashenko, you would have, in effect, almost like Russian troops occupying Belarus, and that will not go down very well with his public,” he told the Daily Beast Monday. With Prigozhin’s recent track record of going rogue against his former close ally, Putin, Prigozhin likely won’t feel any loyalties towards Lukashenko either, raising the prospect of continued mutinous activities. “I definitely don't see any loyalty there, be it for Lukashenko or the republic of Belarus,” Kavaleuski said. “They turned on Putin, so what would be their motivation to stay with Lukashenko to pursue his political objectives?” Concerns have even begun emerging in recent days that the presence of Prigozhin’s 25,000-strong force in Belarus could lead to escalating tensions or even an attack on neighboring countries, including Ukraine and neighboring Poland, a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). www.thedailybeast.com/...

x #Russia_Belarus: Not only Prigozhin moves to Belarus, but also the headquarters of the Wagner Group and its legal address. Lukashenko's solution included offering a new “home” for Prigozhin and his mercenary business. In other words:⤵️ — Dionis Cenusa (@DionisCenusa) June 27, 2023 1) Russia is handing over to Belarus the implementer of certain hybrid warfare activities; 2) Prigozhin keeps his business alive against takeover by legitimate Russian force institutions;⤵️ 3) Belarus is gaining a loyal ally to secure its role, as well as a potential threat should Lukashenko deviate from commitments; 4) Putin's elites will have to buy peace from Prigozhin to be safe in the future;⤵️ 5) Belarus gains a “leverage” in foreign policy and security cooperation with Russia regarding the use of operational capacity and organizational memory of the Wagner Group in special operations abroad. 6) Prigozhin/Wagners could play a key role in ensuring the future transition/transfer of power to whoever steps into Lukashenko's shoes. Surely Putin/Kremlin/special services are well aware of that. Пригожин о Лукашенко: он предложил пути решения • • •

x In particular, the supposed opening of recruiting offices suggests that Lukashenko wants to use Wagner as an economic factor to generate income for the chronically tight state budget.

This would mean that the Wagner mercenaries 1/3 https://t.co/t9bfENzpku — Aleks Andr (@newsand_more) June 27, 2023

x 1. immediately generate revenues (for "protection" and "licensing" of these activities through the Belarusian authorities) and

2. allowed Belarus access to economic resources (oil, mineral resources, etc.) in the countries of Wagner-operations. — Aleks Andr (@newsand_more) June 27, 2023

OSINTdefender @sentdefender The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced that preparations are currently underway to Facilitate the Transfer of Heavy Military Equipment from the Wagner PMC Group to the Russian Armed Forces. 4:20 AM · Jun 27, 2023

Some Wagner Group forces may follow Prigozhin to Belarus. Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on June 26 that Belarusian authorities are constructing several new camps to house the Wagner Group fighters in Belarus and that the construction of a 24,000 square kilometer base for 8,000 Wagner Group fighters is already underway in Asipovichy, Mogilev Oblast. [7] The location of a Wagner Group base in Asipovichy does not pose an immediate threat against Ukraine; Asipovichy is about 200 kilometers from Belarus’ international border with Ukraine, and the establishment of new Wagner Group bases in Gomel or Brest oblasts on the border with Ukraine would be much more alarming. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko may seek to use the Prigozhin and Wagner Group fighters to balance against a longstanding Russian effort to establish a permanent military presence in Belarus, though the extent to which Lukashenko can successfully co-opt Prigozhin or refuse a potential Russian extradition demand for Prigozhin or Wagner fighters in Belarus remains unclear. Prigozhin’s personal whereabouts remain unclear as of June 26, though some unconfirmed reports suggest that he is in the “Green City Hotel” in western Minsk City. [8] understandingwar.org/...

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/27/2177890/-Belarus-may-house-the-24-000-Wagner-Troops

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