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MOVING SLOW OR FAST [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2023-06-26
MOVING FAST or SLOW
MOVING FAST: How long until Prigozhin meets ultimate defenestration:
1 week
2 weeks
1 month
2 months
1 year
Sorry those who want to bet longer than a year, I am too honest a casino to take your money.
MOVING SLOWWWWLLY:
How soon will the putin appear live in public:
1 week
2 weeks
1 month
Never
If the putin doesnt show up sooner than three weeks, assume his corpus can't make a show at all because the rot of his character has infected his limbs.
MOVING at an unmetered pace -- disintegration of the Russian Federation (RF) and far slower yet, creation of a Russian liberal-democracy.
In March last year, weeks after the putin's invasion, I suggested that one result might be the de-federalization of the RF. Russia is large enough to remain a worrisome threat to Western peace and has never demonstrated the capacity to join the constellation of Western democracies. Part of the Russian population that fled the war and the draft will drift homeward eventually but many of the educated decent Russians who left and are establishing themselves abroad will not be in a hurry to return to a country whose history is a 1,000 year record of autocracy and misgovernance. By whom and how could a liberal-democracy be built?
For those of you Americans who smugly read the previous sentence, restrain your arrogance. We have been blessed by lucky confluences of geography and fortunate leadership that arose in a historical period conducive to good, democratic government. None of that is guaranteed from year to year, decade to decade. One trump was a body blow to democratic governance. Should circumstances intervene and the voters take momentary leave of their senses or once again the Electoral College triumph over the popular vote -- it can all be lost. Four more years of a vindictive mad-insane trump or a cunning fascist De Santis would be an Achilles blow to liberal-democracy, a political system that protects minorities and respects facts and science.
A society's success is dependent 30% on geography, 60% on national culture and 60% on the quality of its leadership. Adds up to more than 100%? The formula is inexact because the constituents can't be measured exactly (or even at all), they are not static and their impact waxes and wanes, the leadership becomes wiser/dumber and changes, the population knows more, knows less, is governed by emotion or practices reason.
Those who believe that we live in a sacred land whose success is guaranteed by god have not been the victim's of "god's" failed promises for two thousand years. Our fate is not in the stars, but in ourselves though we are just underlings. We can lose it faster or slower.
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