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Experts Prognosticate on Putin and the Putsch. Take home: No Consensus Yet So Stay Tuned. [1]
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Date: 2023-06-26
Politico has an article up that surveys fourteen Russia experts on Putin and the Putsch, and what “the attempted mutiny could mean for Russia and the West.”
Link
Here are some of those opinions (each from a different pundit):
“Putin is vulnerable and the Russian state is decrepit”. “Putin’s image of invincibility has been tarnished.” “The tsar is old; the state is weak; the future is open.”
But then, “Putin will probably emerge even stronger”. This won’t weaken Putin or affect the war”. “Putin doesn’t need Wagner or Prigozhin. He can manage with his own forces. He’s now certainly convinced of that.”
And then those who synthesize the above opposing opinions into “... it [the putsch] was a stress test of Putin’s public image and of the regime’s internal security order” so “Expect purges in Moscow and a doubling-down in Ukraine.” Although, “So far, there’s been no change to Russian military actions in Ukraine”, and “Putin will probably emerge stronger, at least in the short term.”
Oh my. We’ve got quite a range of opinion here. What we don’t have enough data. And to paraphrase Kant: data is useless without theory, and theory is useless without data.
I am no expert on Russia, but one did did write something that seems apropos:
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[1] Url:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/26/2177829/-Experts-Prognosticate-on-Putin-and-the-Putsch-Take-home-No-Consensus-Yet-So-Stay-Tuned
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