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Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Mercenaries just want to be paid [1]
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Date: 2023-06-26
There’s a lot of ink being spilled trying to make sense of what’s happened this week in Russia. Good luck to the pundits. My theory makes just as much sense as theirs. Once he heard his paycheck was really in the mail, he called the whole thing off. In any case here’s what the pundits think.
Yaroslav Trofimov/Wall Street journal:
After Weekend of Chaos in Russia, Questions Remain Over Fate of Wagner With both Putin and Prigozhin silent, Russians and Western officials wonder whether the crisis is truly over “The entire system has lost yesterday, including Prigozhin, who is also part of the system,” said Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment who was in Moscow on Saturday. As for Putin, he added, “it turned out that the czar is not a real czar because he couldn’t control a man from his own system who’s supposed to be under his full control.”
Washington Post:
As revolt in Russia subsides, U.S. and allies brace for what comes next Yevgeniy Prigozhin’s extraordinary showdown with Vladimir Putin has dealt a serious blow to the stability of the Russian regime, observers say Former U.S. officials who have long dealt with Russia said that even though the immediate threat from Prigozhin may have eased, the extraordinary events had dealt a serious blow to the stability of the Russian regime.
The Economist:
How the mutiny in Russia will shape the battlefield in Ukraine Yevgeny Prigozhin is retreating, but his mutiny undermines the Kremlin’s war Mr Prigozhin’s mutiny struck at the heart of the war effort. Rostov-on-Don, the city which his forces seized in the early hours of June 24th, is a central logistics and command hub for the war, though the main headquarters sits in Novocherkassk 30km to the east. It is a key route into the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, and a staging post for Russian casualties. Voronezh is similarly important for operations in the northern part of the front. Mr Prigozhin said he would not impede the war, but his conquest of the Russian army’s headquarters in Rostov would have been highly disruptive. Russia’s air losses are thought to have included advanced electronic warfare helicopters. Ukrainians had hoped that the threat of civil war next door would play out over a longer period in their favour. A source in the Ukrainian general staff said on June 24th that he hoped Russia would be forced to redeploy its scant front-line reserves, earmarked to repel an ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensive, to deal with the crisis at home. That now looks unlikely. Initial reports suggest that Wagner forces are already moving away from Moscow, though whether they return “back to field camps”, as Mr Prigozhin suggested, remains to be seen.
x Why do people pay more attention to developments in the biggest war in decades, or to novel stories with an element of suspense, than to the 73rd attempt to manufacture a scandal out of the president's not-in-govt son?
That question answers itself. It's the opposite that's weird. — Nicholas Grossman (@NGrossman81) June 25, 2023
Phillips OBrien/”Phillips’s Newsletter” on Substack:
The Prigozhin Coup seems pretty damn well organized At first this attempt by Prigozhin seemed almost impulsive and bound to fail (and it still might—and probably should if the Russian army stays loyal to Putin). However, what does seem to be the case now is that this is a well-planned operation that has been a while in the making and has a greater chance of success that certainly I would have thought yesterday. If you look at the timing, the placement of Russian forces, the areas that Prigozhin has seized, and the fact that Putin was clearly caught of guard, you can see this. If you don’t mind, I thought I would talk a little bit about why I think it is well organized and could succeed.
And it’s not over yet, though this phase is.
x Misery Index scores in June of presidential reelection years:
Carter 1980: 22.0% (L)
Trump 2020: 13.4% (L)
Reagan 1984: 11.6% (W)
Bush 1992: 10.9% (L)
Obama 2012: 9.9% (W)
Bush 2004: 8.9% (W)
Clinton 1996: 8.5% (W)
Current: 7.7% — Conor Sen (@conorsen) June 24, 2023
Here’s an encapsulated view of the Misery Index on Investopedia (what it is and how it’s measured).
Simon Rosenberg/”Hopium Chronicles” on Substack:
New NBC News Poll Is a Good One for Biden and the Dems Biden Leads Trump 49-45, Dems Are Up 2 In The Congressional Generic Biden leads Trump 49-45. He leads women (55-38), 18-34 year olds (65-30), Latinos (66-26), Indies (47-33). These are good, healthy numbers.
Dems lead in Congressional Generic 48-46, up from 46-47 in January. Congressional generic asks “which party are you supporting next year for Congress?” These are good, healthy numbers.
Trump’s lead over DeSantis doubles from 46-31 (+15) to 51-22 (+29). A big yikes for the Florida governor.
Like other polls DeSantis is already remarkably unpopular with the overall electorate. He is -16 here, -19/20 in Civiqs and Biden is only -9 in this one. While voters do not have a lot of information about DeSantis what they do have so far is really bad for him. It suggests, like Trump, he may have a low general election ceiling. I remain really surprised by how intense his negatives are this early - it has to be the most worrisome data out there right now for the Republicans for it suggests their problems go far beyond Trump.
x Trend since April NBC poll:
Trump 51% (+5)
DeSantis 22% (-9)
Pence 7% (+1)
Christie 5% (+5)
Haley 4% (+1)
Ramaswamy 3% (+1)
Scott 3% (-)
Hutchinson 2% (-1)
https://t.co/mZ1R2X3aua — David Weigel (@daveweigel) June 25, 2023
J. Michael Luttig/New York Times:
It’s Not Too Late for the Republican Party The former president’s behavior may have invited charges, but the Republicans’ spineless support for the past two years convinced Mr. Trump of his political immortality, giving him the assurance that he could purloin some of the nation’s most sensitive national security secrets upon leaving the White House — and preposterously insist that they were his to do with as he wished — all without facing political consequences. Indeed, their fawning support since the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol has given Mr. Trump every reason to believe that he can ride these charges and any others not just to the Republican nomination, but also to the White House in 2024. In a word, the Republicans are as responsible as Mr. Trump for this month’s indictment — and will be as responsible for any indictment and prosecution of him for Jan. 6.
x Wayne Bradley of Oakland County, a former director of African American engagement for the Michigan GOP: "If I had to put money on it right now, Trump will be our candidate, and he will lose again to Biden. Unequivocally, we will lose." — Jonathan Oosting (@jonathanoosting) June 25, 2023
Jeremy Littau/The Atlantic:
Social Media Has Collapsed Good Debate Joe Rogan’s podcast is an awful venue for serious disagreement. But the alternatives aren’t much better. Last weekend, the vaccine scientist Peter Hotez criticized the influential podcaster Joe Rogan for hosting Robert F. Kennedy Jr., lamenting the fact that a podcast with millions of listeners lent its megaphone to a notorious spreader of vaccine misinformation. In response, Rogan challenged Hotez to come on his show and debate RFK Jr. with no time limit, offering to donate $100,000 to charity as an incentive. Although Hotez declined, RFK Jr. graciously accepted, leading Elon Musk to muse that Hotez was scared of debate. Given the audiences that Rogan and Musk command and the following that RFK Jr. has cultivated, the tweets sparked a kind of pressure campaign that ratcheted up quickly. Within hours, their Twitter acolytes were hard at work trying to shame Hotez into saying yes. As often happens on social media, the argument went nowhere and both sides stood their ground. Still, it’s worth addressing the claim that someone ought to debate when challenged, because it invokes the heart of the democratic ideal. […] A particular media type influences how messages are created and perceived. Research suggests that the same message in a photo will be processed more emotionally than text, because our brains deal with images and words differently. Messages in audio take on different characteristics when TV adds visual layers. One can win a debate on substance but lose it in the public consciousness if the message is incongruent with the audience’s medium-specific expectations.
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