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The Silence of Their Objections [1]

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Date: 2023-06-25

Evgeniy Prigozhin was only two hundred kilometers from the outskirts of Moscow with his Wagner group mercenaries. When eureka, a solution had suddenly been found! Prigozhin’s Wagner group had been bombed and harassed all along the highway. Several, as in three or more Russian aircraft had been shot down by Wagner with the total loss of Russian men and machines. The Wager Group met no civil resistance anywhere along the road as they travelled and only needed to reach Moscow. Then all of a sudden…

It’s all over and Prigozhin is out, exiled to the backwaters of Belarus. And all is forgiven, and a complete pardon is granted to the poor mislead Wagner soldiers. I’m no Russian expert, but I know what that means. You better Run! These are a people with a short temper and a long memory. People who would ruin your life over a poorly chosen comment.

What the hell? Why would the Wagner group stop? This do or die big guy. There is no little bit here, this requires a full commitment. But Prigozhin only needed to knock on the door. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin was flying aboard the Russian equivalent of Airforce One. First flying 600 miles east then refueling and flying back. Getting out of town for a while, till things cool down a bit. It makes no sense.

“If an injury has to be done to a man it should be so severe that his vengeance need not be feared.”

― Niccolo Machiavelli

Letting your known enemy just walk away to safety. To plot against you again sometime in the safety of his exile. But what of the Wagner group? Does Prigozhin still own the Wagner company? Or was it a sort of just turn around and walk away deal, and you can keep your money and your life.

Defenses around Moscow were weak and almost pitifully unprepared. That is what makes this event so confounding. What event, all by its self, could change the situation 180 degrees in just a matter of minutes. Maybe family hostages? But would Prigozhin keep silent about something like that? Blood has been spilled with tens of millions of dollars in aircraft lost and then they just let the villain walk away into the sunset. What the hell?

“The lion cannot protect himself from traps, and the fox cannot defend himself from wolves. One must therefore be a fox to recognize traps, and a lion to frighten wolves.” ― Niccolò Machiavelli

Letting Prigozhin walk away isn’t very lion like. Something tells me this isn’t over yet. For Prigozhin, life in Belarus could be challenging and short. I suppose Prigozhin will keep his entourage and their personal weaponry. Like Napoleon exiled to Elba Island, he could escape at any time. He could rule Wagner in absentia as the missing leader hero figure.

Did Prigozhin pull the chicken switch? Did he whimp out? From an angry video threatening to come up to town kick everybody’s ass. Then walks out with “Never mind.”

The Wagner troops are to head back to their bases in Ukraine to wait for further instructions. That doesn’t sound good. But what was displayed around Moscow calls into question the whole Ukrainian strategy. A swift strike into Russian territory could further destabilize the tottering Russian government into collapse and perhaps accommodation. It is now clear there is no Russian reserve. Only traffic cops and the National guardsmen. No tanks were seen anywhere and only a few armored cars.

A Russian Military spokesman later said, “The Wagner troops will be offered a contract to join the proud Russian army. “Comrades, would you like to sign a contract entering the ranks of the proud Russian army? Or would you prefer to be beaten to within a centimeter of your miserable life? Think of the benefits! This could be the opportunity of a lifetime for you Comrade!

If the Russian government tries to integrate Wagner troops into the Russian Army, they in invite a cancer. The Wagner troops see themselves as elite troops and any office in the Russian Army is a step down. The Wagner troops are used to getting paid regularly and treated with respect. If they keep the Wagner units together, can they trust them? And if they split them apart, can they watch them?

The Russian civilian population made no complaint against Wagner troops as they attempted to topple Putin. That’s a clear indication they don’t like him much. The videos show the public was willing to support a change of government. A dirty meat grinder of a war like World War One. With trench raids and artillery strikes, land mines and snipers with night vision scopes. A drone and cellphone war. When the artillery strikes, the forward unit takes a picture with their phone and sends the results back to the artillery. A picture is worth a thousand words.

There has been an unholy devil’s bargain made here. Putin is still in power, but is he? This smells of a regime ending with exile for Putin. The last of the old Soviet politicians walks the last of the old Soviet miles. Putin is weak, and tottering and it shows. The Emperor has only house soldiers. Only the palace guard and the army band. How long can Putin last like that? Nature abhors a vacuum like politicians can smell a weakness.

Famously, it is never a good idea to voice your opinion on camera in Russia. But the Russian public has spoken with her feet, with the silence of their feet and the silence of their objections. Strike one, the Russian public have soured on Putin and on his war. Welcoming invading troops like friends from out of town. Willing to accept anyone sight unseen. Strike Two, The Palace guard, cops and the boy rangers. Strike three, sending the Army to the front and leaving none behind for security at home.

Believing the old saw “It can’t happen here,” Russia, this Russia is at the end of her rope. She’s all in on the Ukraine front. She’s sucked her army dry at home. Prigozhin has complained for months of being short supplied on munitions. But maybe, they’re just running out and there ain’t no more. Sorry, limit three.

This Coup in a tea cup has laid bare the truth in Russia. Vladimir Putin hasn’t won anything here; he’s only survived it. His adversary is still loose breathing and potentially loaded for bear. That is at best a tie. Kissing your sister and everyone now knows how weak he is. But this is Russia, and we still can’t see much of what really went on. Only, I don’t think it is over still in this most curiously odd event. But rest assured, this was only the first movement and not the grand finale.

For Russia, the worst is yet to come.

"Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma." – Winston Churchill

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/25/2177528/-The-Silence-of-Their-Objections

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