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Thoughts On The Russian Civil War [1]

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Date: 2023-06-24

Suddenly Ukraine’s fight for survival has turned into Russia’s fight for survival, or at least the survival of Putin’s regime. Some thought on this and speculation as to what may happen next.

Current Military Situation (as I understand it)

Prigozhin’s mercenary force Wagner Group has suddenly turned on Russia. Claiming Russia forces attacked it first Prigozhin drove his forces East and with lightening speed captured Rostov and the Southern Military District (SMD) Headquarters there. The SMD is the operational command for the entire war in Ukraine. Rostov is a major city of over 1 million.

Prigozhin then turned his forces North and in a seemingly impossibly quick strike seized yet another major city hundreds of miles North of Rostov. Voronezh, roughly halfway to Moscow from Rostov, is about the same size as Rostov and also hosts important military facilities. Voronezh is about 300 miles from Moscow. It’s considered a six hour drive by car.

Reports have Wagner Group force convoys continuing to move up the M-4 highway from Voronezh towards Moscow. There is no indication yet that these forces are within striking distance yet of the Russian Capital.

The Wagner Group was able to occupy these two major Russian cities without significant opposition. Russian helicopters have begun to harry the forces moving North. There is dramatic footage of a Russian helicopter destroying one of its own fuel depots in Voronezh to prevent Wagner from using it.

x BREAKING:



Russian military helicopters are bombing fuel depots held by the Wagner Group in the Voronezh region. pic.twitter.com/X3nuViprvm — Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023

The Political Situation (as I understand it)

Prigozhin has long running disputes with the Russian Ministry of Defense. Prigozhin originally tried to present this as an effort to support Putin by forcing corrupt Ministry of Defense officials from office. Putin didn’t buy that and labeled Prigozhin a traitor. Russia’s Ministry of Justice issued a warrant for Prigozhin’s arrest charging him with insurrection.

Prigozhin is now fighting for his survival. He either achieves regime change, or he dies.

Any regime change involving Prigozhin would not lead to a more moderate Russia. He’s even crazier than Putin. While Prigozhin has said the war was not necessary, and started under false pretexts, he has made clear that if he were in charge he would fully mobilize Russia to win it decisively.

Of course, we are arguably a long way from regime change in Russia. I doubt that Prigozhin’s force can actually take Moscow. But we are a lot closer to regime change than we were just the day before yesterday. What any potential regime change might look like is a total crapshoot.

What Is Ukraine Doing?

So far Ukraine seems to mostly be enjoying the show. However, Prigozhin’s early success again emphasizes the weakness of the Russian military and makes Putin look weak. Prigozhin’s seizure of the SMD Headquarters almost certainly paralyzes Russia support efforts against Ukraine to include logistics and coordination of air power. This is true even if Prigozhin insists, as he does, that he is not interfering with SMD’s efforts in Ukraine.

Expect Ukraine to start doing more soon. Ukraine should amp up its offensive against what must be demoralized Russian forces whose command and control and air support has been kneecapped by their own people. To make Putin look even weaker, Ukraine should restart harassing attacks in the Belgorod region on Russian soil. Many of the forces there are scrambling away from the region to deal with The Wagner Group.

What Happens Next

Hell if I know. The most likely scenario is that Prigozhin’s little revolution fizzles and he is killed. The Wagner Group ceases to exist. Putin is weakened. The war effort in Ukraine is undermined and the Russian people are left with an even greater sense that this war is an un-winnable disaster.

However, there is a greater chance of regime change now in Russia than ever before for Putin. He is fighting for his survival to.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/24/2177337/-Thoughts-On-The-Russian-Civil-War

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