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OMG! Lukashenko might actually have saved all the evil butts! [1]
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Date: 2023-06-24
I think that a post by Cossack Jeffersonian Democrat, quoting The Guardian in a comment on another post, just might have hit the nail on the head. Peskov is a liar, but the essence of this story seems plausible:
“16.11 EDT
“The Wagner mercenary force chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, will move to Belarus under the deal brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to end the armed mutiny that Prigozhin had led against Russia’s military leadership, the Kremlin said on Saturday night.
“Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Lukashenko had offered to mediate, with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s agreement, because he had known Prigozhin personally for around 20 years.”
The pieces fit together.
Piece 1) Was it Kos who pointed out that if you are already under sentence of execution from the emperor it might make sense to launch a revolution? Prigozhin may have thought things had recently gotten to the point where Shoigu or Putin was going to execute him. Might as well launch a revolt.
Piece 2) Prigozhin was in fact mounting a significant threat to Putin and the Russian military. They freaked out and ordered the full might and power of the Russian armed forces to oppose Wagner.
Piece 3) Had enough of the Russian military gone over to Progozhin, Wagner might have prevailed. Some deserted but maybe it wasn’t enough. At this point, Prigozhin could neither back out nor lose without being killed.
Piece 4) And he wasn’t going to win. A bloody battle was imminent. Prigozhin could make a hell of a lot of trouble, but he was going to lose that fight. And then his life. The Wagner revolt was also going to cause Russia to lose the war in Ukraine, and then Putin’s life. Only a Pyrrhic victory was possible for either side.
Piece 5) Lukashenko realized that a Russian civil war was likely going to incite people in Belorus to revolt against him. Russia would withdraw their forces and could not send them back without endangering themselves.
Piece 6) Someone, and it may have been Lukashenko, realized that his intervention could save everyone’s butt. Including his own. A Wagner force in Belorus would prevent any revolt there. Putin would survive — and as head of Russia. Prigozhin would also survive. The Wagner Group would not be destroyed by the Russian military. Lukashenko gets to do Putin a Big Favor, thus demonstrating his value.
Piece 7) The war in Ukraine has taken a hit, and the Russian people will become harder to keep in control. But at least the Russian armed forces can go back to prosecuting the war without devastating interference from Prigozhin.
Piece 8) Had hostilities continued until Wagner began an assault on fortress Moscow, none of this would have been possible. Ukraine would win, Prigozhin would be killed, Putin would be deposed and Wagner would be destroyed. And Lukashenko would lose his protection and also be deposed.
Note that this theory doesn’t require voluntary cooperation of the malignant narcissists. It’s just exceedingly selfish vile bastards acting in their own self-interest, each attempting to destroy the other. They only cooperate when it becomes clear that they will all lose everything if they continue. I find it very easy to believe that Putin, Shoigu, Prigozhin and Lukashenko would behave this way.
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