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A Fluid Situation [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2023-06-24
By David Glenn Cox
Wow, a real revolution in Russia! When was the last time you saw a real revolt in a major European Capitol? And you thought a doomed submarine was a big deal. “Any man`s death diminishes me because I am involved in mankind. And therefore, never send to know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.” – John Doane
I feel sorry for anyone who gets killed. But every year when I lived in Colorado people would get killed climbing a fourteener. They took a chance and pitted themselves against nature and they lost. That’s living life on the edge and if it were easy, everyone would do it.
“There are roads which must not be followed, armies which must not be attacked, towns which must not be besieged, positions which must not be contested, commands of the sovereign which must not be obeyed.” ― Sun Tzu
That translates in American english as “You break it, you bought it!” Don’t forget to get out the drop cloth before you open the paint can. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Private Military Group has made an angry video condemning everyone in the Russian Military. But left out any direct blaming of the government as a whole. Prigozhin says, The Russian military has fired missiles at the Wagner camps with serious casualties.
It was possible at first to dismiss the putsch that it was just another Prigozhin crotch grab. But the Wagner Group has left their posts in occupied Ukraine and set out down the road to Moscow to see the Wizard. Crotch grabbing all the way which seems to be a Prigozhin hobby espeicially when Putin appears to have taken a powder .
You can’t have two lovers without having problems eventually. Vladimir Putin vs. the FSB Russian Military vs. the Wagner group. Now, the money talks as Putin needs the Oligarchs and their wealth. The Oligarchs face sanctions and a collapsing Russian stock market.
Pay attention – this has a lot to do with our future. There has been serious bloodshed and it’s now long passed “Sorry, we thought you were someone else.” As the story so often goes, “if you don’t pay them, they won’t like you anymore!” They will find somebody new. And Prigozhin is promising to give the soldiers their back pay. And Putin is invisable. If you were a Russian Oligarch, would you be happy right about now?
If it is the military and not the politics driving the war it will be fought down to the bloody end, and that’s dangerous. One of these guys has threatened to use Nuclear weapons before and the other (Prigozhin) would certainly use them. A thug, criminal, a hot dog salesman, restuarantour, mercinary and ex-con, you know the type.
A sort of Russian Donald Trump with a resume’ He screams everything he says and talks the crazy talk. He appears only three steps above Fred Flintstone with a hangover. He’s always angry and always aggrieved. (See: Donald Trump)
If it is politics fueling the insurrection, it’s the money and it’s coming towards Prigozhin, and the war will be over quickly. They are already shooting each other but reports say some Russian troops are switching sides. As a Russian soldier facing down the meatgrinder in Ukraine. “You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.”
This guy’s is going to get me killed and for free no less. This other guy might get me killed but is offering to pay me! The soldiers aren’t afraid to fight, they just don’t want to do it for free anymore.
Perhaps, it is the Oligarchs fighting the other Oligarchs. That would explain all those pesky fires breaking out around Russia. WWACD? What would Al Capone Do? The loyalist (Putin) vs. ? A sure enough genuine Russian Revolution. And how it all turns out will affect us all. The Wagner Group has moved 150 miles down the road towards Moscow. The city of Rostov on Don is in Wagner hands.
In Moscow, check points and roadblocks are being erected. Yeah, sometimes that works and sometimes it doesn’t. This is a gangster film. Never trust anybody Fredo and it never looks good to appear weak during a crisis.
The disappearance of Putin speaks volumes. He needs to make a national address calling for calm. Even, if it was recorded miles and miles away. Putin did so eventually while maybe packing his bags and maybe singing, “Goodbye Moscow, hello Dubai!” It’s not a good look for Putin, and he could be gone already. This is all happening in real time and as they like to say, the situation is fluid, and nobody really knows.
This is not something you will see a lot of in life. I’m old, I’ve witnessed the Russian army in the streets shooting guns before and it always means something. Prigozhin says, “Stay in your homes lest somebody take a shot at you.” If you know what he means. 1917 and then Stalin and the terror. Then the Cold War and its end in 1991.
And now this, and it appears to be a real shooting Revolution. Confirmed reports say three Russian aircraft have been shot down and there are fighter jets over Moscow. Your watching real history here from the assassination of Julius Caesar to the murder of JFK. From Batista to Putin. This could be Saigon in 1975.
The Wagner Group seems to be making unempeded progress as the hours pass. How will this affect the Russian Army in Ukraine? Whose orders will they follow? So far, the only pictures online of the guardians of Moscow are lightly armed palace guard troops. And it is doubtful that they will fight to the death or hold back anyone seriously determined. I don’t think Prigozhin would ever have attempted this if he didn’t have some whispers of support from somewhere upstairs.
It is a situation where some of Russia’s nuclear arsenal have been moved to the neighboring country of Belarus. Part of the Russian nuclear arsenal could be pointed at the other half of the Russian arsenal. Will Putin run away to fortress Belarus? Hide out in a palace and hold off the cops with a nuke.
The Ukrainian Army isn’t letting this opportunity slip. This is their big break! It is possible Russian troops might be ready to put down their weapons, if given the right opportunity. There might be a new Russian government in the next few days. A coup requires fear or disgust. When they are afraid, they won’t fight. If hungry or disgusted enough, they will seize the opportunity to swap sides. This often comes down to a case of they’ve got nothing else left to lose.
A Russian revolution is a nation destabilized a nation with nuclear weapons. A Russia in panic changes the balance of power in Europe and the world. The possible end of one tyrant or the beginning of a new one.
“Now, when your weapons are dulled, your ardor damped, your strength exhausted and your treasure spent, other chieftains will spring up to take advantage of your extremity. Then no man, however wise, will be able to avert the consequences that must ensue.” ― Sun Tzu
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