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Ukraine Update: Pyatykhatky and Pickett’s Charge [1]

['Daily Kos Staff']

Date: 2023-06-23

Everyone seems to be disappointed by the rate at which the Ukrainian counteroffensive is liberating territory … only it’s not clear that the Ukrainian military is actually part of that “everyone.” What’s happening right now could be so vital to their efforts that trying to change things by rapidly liberating more area could actually make things worse.

To understand why staying put might not be as much a necessity as it is a strategy, it helps to look at this message from a Ukrainian soldier taking part in the fighting around Pyatykhatky at the western end of the southern front.

“The Russians have been trying to drive us out of our positions for days. From the direction of Zherebyanky the Russians attack with tanks and IFV. The attacks are made across the open field, through their own minefields. By capturing high ground we have fire sovereignty over this sector.”

There’s an incident in America’s history that seems to mesh with the situation being described in this area—it was called “Pickett's Charge.”

I’m not going to recount all the details of how Confederate commander Robert E. Lee’s arrogance and Gen. George Pickett’s complacency conspired to create a military disaster. Most readers of this series are probably well-versed in the events of that day, and if not, here you go.

I’m just going to say this: Gen. George Meade is not much remembered by history. Most Americans would be shocked to learn that he was the commander of Union forces at Gettysburg rather than some better known name like Ulysses S. Grant or William Tecumseh Sherman. Meade’s biggest accomplishment may have been how powerfully he pissed off Abraham Lincoln (and keeping the army running when Grant was too busy being Grant). But Meade knew enough to not abandon a strong tactical position when his enemy kept attacking from a weaker position.

Here’s more of that message from a Ukrainian soldier on the ground on the southern Ukrainian front:

“The Russian 429th Motor Rifle Division from Ossetia was virtually destroyed. The Russians are always pushing in new reserves instead of retreating in their well-developed positions. Attacking further forward doesn't make sense at all, since the Russians send their reserves to the kill zone where they can be effectively fought by us.”

So long as the Russians are sending forces forward to Zherebyanky to be destroyed in a neatly constrained area of about three square kilometers, over which Ukraine has a superior tactical advantage … why stop them? Trying to take Zherebyanky under such conditions would be like telling the Union forces shooting from behind the elevated stone wall to stand up and charge out to meet Pickett’s men.

The quote “never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake” has been attributed to everyone from Napoleon Bonaparte to Sun Tzu, but it was probably first said by someone with a name like Ugg. Because this is advice so obvious even a caveman can see the sense of it.

x Looks like Zherebyanky is becoming a real graveyard for Russian scrap metal. pic.twitter.com/hNWHKr27Zk — Julian Röpcke🇺🇦 (@JulianRoepcke) June 20, 2023

It may seem like we keep hammering this point, because we keep hammering this point. But there are other ways to measure success than land changing hands in the first two weeks of fighting.

For example, just yesterday Markos wrote about the increased rate of Russian artillery being taken out through counter-battery fire since the counteroffensive began. Going into the last two weeks, Ukraine had been removing Russian guns from the field at a rate of about 10.5 a day. Over the last two weeks, that number jumped to an average of 21.8 guns a day. Then there was yesterday:

Ukrainian General Staff report of estimate Russian losses

That was 44 tube artillery and eight MLRS being taken out in 24 hours. It almost doesn’t matter how many guns Russia can dig out of mothballs. If Ukraine can hold that rate of attrition, Russia is weeks away from being unable to field the kind of comprehensive artillery coverage that their tactics demand.

Somehow, just by moving a couple of kilometers, Ukraine has convinced Russia to try and recover “their” area no matter the cost. It’s a tactic so baffling that the same soldier on the ground admits he doesn’t know why they are doing it. He states that “the Russians are learning” and everyone worries that there is some bigger picture that they don’t understand. But for now, the Ukrainians at Pyatykhatky are sitting on their hills and shooting the Russians as they try again to cross all that open ground.

Small Gains everywhere

Pyatykhatky—a village it’s safe to say was unknown to most observers of Russia’s invasion until last week—is a long way from being the whole front line. While the fighting continues there, it’s also going on numerous other locations on the south, east, and north.

Open image in another tab for a larger view

Robotyne: This area is best known for being the location at which Ukraine lost Leopard 2 tanks and Bradley IFVs in the opening days of the counteroffensive. However, on Friday there were reports that Ukraine was again advancing in this area. One unconfirmed Russian report indicates that Ukraine has pushed Russian troops out of their positions in this area and moved south.

x /1. 🇺🇦 military has advanced and is holding positions in the area where there was an unsuccessful attempt to break through Ru defense lines in early June.

🇺🇦 fighter who shared the photos is undergoing medical treatment and will soon return to service 💪.https://t.co/JH7v4RBw3l pic.twitter.com/wo1klQlcGp — Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 23, 2023

Makarivka: Fighting continues in the area between Makarivka and two towns just to the south, but Ukrainian forces have reportedly had success in moving west of the town, liberating several square kilometers of mostly open fields.

x Map updates from today, relying on satellite imagery.



First, the area around Makarivka. There are signs of fighting progressing west from the last image (which was 2 days ago). https://t.co/32bSZ2EkPg pic.twitter.com/kF1VsBYGUF — Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) June 23, 2023

Rivnopil: The most notable thing about this location is the silence. After being the scene of fighting over the first week, there’s been almost nothing heard from this front-line location in days. There were early reports that Russia had fled the location, but these were later retracted. However, it now seems very possible that Russia has simply left and Ukraine took it without a lengthy fight. Waiting for confirmation.

x Several reliable Ukrainian sources inform that ru units may be withdrawing to Pryyutne-Staromlynivka line, as our forces approached the northern part of both Staromayorske and Urozhaine and cut the only road from Staromayorske to Rivnopil. pic.twitter.com/qXKYlYEt1S — Smart Ukrainian Cat 🌪️ 🔥 (@SmartUACat) June 23, 2023

In areas not covered by this map: Reports claim that Ukraine has advanced east of Krasnohorivka centered on the rail lines there, Russia has reoccupied the small village of Sakko i Vantsetti north of Bakhmut, Ukraine has retaken areas in that forest near Kreminna, and Russia’s advance at Kupyansk doesn’t seem to be as extensive (or as close to the city) as previously claimed.

Chonhar Bridge

The bombing of the Chonhar Bridge may be a bigger deal than it seemed. Though the initial impression was that the damage could be swiftly repaired. It now seems that support structures could be out in a way that will limit traffic for weeks.

x “The Chonhar bridge is damaged more seriously than we thought. Due to this damage, traffic between the Kherson region and Crimea via this bridge will be closed for 15-20 days,” Russian appointed Governor of the Kherson region Volodymyr Saldo said. pic.twitter.com/vaKgS4swpF — NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) June 23, 2023

Russia is taking the damage seriously enough to construct a pontoon crossing, but this appears to be part of a systematic effort to disrupt Russian lines of communication.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/23/2177122/-Ukraine-Update-Pyatykhatky-and-Pickett-s-Charge

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