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Swing States Need Extra Attention. Hope Springs Weekly Canvass Report for Pennsylvania & Ohio [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2023-06-22
We ran out of turf in Pennsylvania. We didn’t turn anyone away, but every once in awhile, volunteers will request more turf when they have completed the first one they were assigned. People who have walked with us a lot already know that we have a “subtle” way of increasing turf sizes over the summer (~75 in June, ~80 in July, ~85 in August). There are a couple of reasons for this, but it is mainly to keep people moving. Sometimes there are houses you can’t find, or you miss a street, etc. So it isn’t too surprising that some volunteers finish before others. And i will admit that there are people who are competitive about this.
2024 Senate Battleground Map
But we simply didn’t anticipate the turnout. That’s on us. There’s quite a bit of work involved in preparing for each Saturday and i suppose it happens sometimes. But it’s also a good thing. Volunteers are excited to keep their Democratic Senators in the Senate. So yay!
Volunteers for Hope Springs from Field PAC in Pennsylvania and Ohio understand the stakes in this election. In Ohio, especially, they understand just how critical the results of their votes next November will be. In Pennsylvania, a lot of voters we have talked to think they know who the nominees will be, in other words, they have said they think the GOP primary is pre-determined. The non-Democrats we have engaged indicate they are waiting to see what David McCormick proposes and runs on. What is most interesting to me is that the Pennsylvanians we’ve talked to this year don’t believe that the incumbent (Bob Casey) has an inherent advantage because he is the sitting Senator. And it’s not because they think McCormick is a strong candidate (he lost the primary in 2022), or even that he is rich enough to fund his own race. Pennsylvania has a history of tossing out incumbent senators running for re-election, or at least a memory of doing so.
And our volunteers in Ohio seem more confident they are going to re-elect their senator than those in Pennsylvania seem. Which is odd, because the consensus is that Pennsylvania leans Dem while Ohio is a toss-up. But our volunteers in Ohio tell us that people always underestimate Sherrod Brown. And no one tells us they are afraid of Matt Dolan, Bernie Moreno, Frank LaRose or Warren Davidson.
But our last canvasser in Pennsylvania left us a message: “Try not to run out next time.” Agreed.
428 volunteers came out to knock on doors in Pennsylvania last Saturday. The grey Congressional Districts (PA-01, PA-07 & PA-17) represent most of where we are targeting, but we also walking on the Mainline and in minority neighborhoods in Philadelphia as well. Hope Springs volunteers knocked on 29,484 doors last Saturday and talked to 2,364 voters. 1482 of those voters answered questions to at least part of the Issues Survey.
Worries over The Economy was the most frequent response to our question about voter’s top concern on Saturday in Pennsylvania. Schools was the second most frequent response this week, and there was quite a bit of variation how this was expressed, including Costs of College. LGBT was third, including concerns over the safety of this community outside the local area. It did immediately occur to me that Gay Pride parades are coming up, but i am guessing here. I know that we just passed the anniversary of the club shooting in Orlando, but this isn’t Florida.
Biden Approval among the Pennsylvanians we talked to continued to come in at 55% last Saturday while 8% expressed some measure of Disapproval. 61% of the voters who responded Approved of the job Sen. Casey was doing while 6% expressed Disapproval. 52% of the voters we talked to thought Gov. Shapiro was doing a good job, 6% said they Disapproved. Remember that each week, we are hitting doors in different neighborhoods, which can account for sharp deviations in results (although looking at the graphic, there doesn’t seem to be much variation here!).
113 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms. We send completed CSRs to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
Volunteers registered 24(!) new voters in Pennsylvania (most of whom had turned 18 in the past year) and re-registered 61 voters in compliance with Federal (HAVA) law. 2 voters filled out an Incident Report (in Philadelphia) about issues they witnessed in a prior election.
Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors since March in a grassroots effort to prepare the 2024 Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First and Second Rounds of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are canvassing Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel
Hope Springs from Field PAC understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.
401 volunteers showed up to knock on doors in Ohio on Saturday. This represents one fewer than last week, where we like to see increasing numbers every week. They knocked on 29,032 doors on Saturday and talked to 2,142 voters. 1324 (also a decrease) of those voters answered at least some of our questions on the Issues Survey.
The availability of “Good Paying” Jobs, including Summer Jobs for kids in school, was the Top Concern in Ohio this week. Economic Uncertainty was the secondly most mentioned concern. One response we included in this category was a worry about whether local or state governments would have the funds “required to match federal monies” in needed infrastructure projects. Concerns of Healthcare Costs (including prescription drugs) was the third most frequently mentioned concern.
Joe Biden’s Approval numbers among the Ohioans we talked to fell to 52% last Saturday; his Disapproval number fell to 12%. Senator Brown’s Job Approval rose to 62% with only 5% of the voters we talked to on Saturday expressing Disapproval. Approval of Governor DeWine, meanwhile, was 43%; Disapproval was 16% last Saturday. We have had a lot of comments about DeWine’s numbers, and his numbers definitely went down as we expanded our canvasses. But he does get quite a bit of support from voters who identify as independent or unaffiliated.
Hope Springs from Field volunteers registered 4 new voters. We also helped 47 more voters update their voter registration to comply with federal law. We differentiate between new voters registered and existing voters re-registering because we plan to continue our New Voter Postcard effort, and even add Voter Video Chains this cycle.
137 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms. We send completed CSRs to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if there are no Democrats who can further the request, and the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter.
But the main focus of our canvassing right now is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as Congressional Districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions, Hope Springs from Field PAC seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them.
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel
Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!
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