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Ukraine Invasion Day 483: main phase of counteroffensive operations has yet to begin [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-06-20

Counteroffensive operation continue.

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least two sectors of the front on June 20. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations on the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts and in western Zaporizhia oblast. [1] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that units of the Eastern Grouping of Forces repelled four Ukrainian assaults near Orikhiv, Zaporizhia Oblast, and in western Donetsk Oblast. [2] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported on June 19 that Russian forces have committed significant forces to stop Ukrainian offensives, making Ukrainian advances difficult. [3] Malyar added that ongoing Ukrainian operations have several tasks that are not solely focused on liberating territory and that Ukrainian forces have yet to start the main phase of counteroffensive operations. [4]

Especially intriguing is the origin of this photo. It was posted today to the official Twitter account of the Ukrainian Air Force, together with the caption “New day — new challenges!” That phrase could well suggest that some new kind of capability is being used. Either way, the fact that the Ukrainian Air Force chose to publicize this particular photo also indicates they are happy to show something of that new capability, whatever it might be.

⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - JUN 20 Equipment losses above average in dollar terms DEVELOPMENT: $2.2B in the last 30 days ⬆ $83M reported today ⬇ Today's reported losses well distributed between categories 📈 https://t.co/83d6XKNoWf pic.twitter.com/fgAW9i9aCi

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued a slightly intensified tempo of ground attacks near Kreminna on June 20. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations west of Kreminna near Yampolivka (17km west), Torske (15km west), and western Dibrova (7m southwest), and south of Kreminna near Hryhorivka (10km south) and Spirne (25km south). [10] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Russian forces conducted over 21 ground attacks in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions in the past day and noted that Russian forces are actively using “Storm-Z” assault units comprised of former prisoners to conduct highly attritional assaults on Ukrainian positions in these directions. [11] The recent commitment of “Storm-Z” units to the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast frontline likely explains the increased number of attacks reported near Kreminna over the previous few days, as it appears that Russian forces have committed a relatively large quantity of low-quality forces to frontal infantry assaults. Several It is unclear whether elements of the 76th and 98th VDV Divisions have formed “Storm-Z” formations staffed with prisoners or whether the “Storm-Z” formations are fighting alongside VDV elements but operating under a different command and control structure.

www.understandingwar.org/...

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Click here to read ISW’s retrospective analysis on the Battle for Bakhmut.

Russian and Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut on June 20. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut). [13] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that there were three combat clashes in Bakhmut. [14] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces employed a TOS-1A thermobaric artillery system against Ukrainian positions in Berkhivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut). [15] ...

www.understandingwar.org/...

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Click here to read ISW’s retrospective analysis on the Battle for Bakhmut.

Russian and Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut on June 20. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut). [13] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that there were three combat clashes in Bakhmut. [14] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces employed a TOS-1A thermobaric artillery system against Ukrainian positions in Berkhivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut). [15]

www.understandingwar.org/...

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts on June 20. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive actions along the Novodarivka-Priyutne line (15km southwest of Velyka Novosilka to 17km southwest of Velyka Novosilka) and Rivnopil-Makarivka line (11km southwest of Velyka Novosilka to 7km south of Velyka Novosilka). [20] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian units of the Eastern Grouping of Forces repelled three Ukrainian assaults in the Velyka Novosilka area on June 19. [21

www.understandingwar.org/...

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/20/2176515/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-483-main-phase-of-counteroffensive-operations-has-yet-to-begin

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