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Ukraine Invasion Day 480: at the front, four sectors of counterattacks [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-06-17

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive actions on at least four sectors of the front.

Northern: Increased RU activity, claimed UA counterattack

Bakhmut: Small RU advance, Decrease in activity

Donetsk: Claimed increase in activity

Southern: Claimed UA advance, Claimed RU advance, reported increase in activity near Orikhiv.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive actions on at least four sectors of the front on June 17. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and other Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted localized ground attacks west and south of Kreminna.[1] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that Ukrainian forces continue counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut, and Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked on the northern and southern outskirts of Bakhmut.[2] The Russian MoD and other Russian sources also claimed that Russian forces repelled limited Ukrainian ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.[3] Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations south, southwest, and southeast of Velyka Novosilka near the administrative border between western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts.[4] Ukrainian forces also conducted counteroffensive operations southwest and southeast of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[5] Malyar also stated that Ukrainian forces advanced up to two kilometers in multiple unspecified directions in southern Ukraine.[6]. www.understandingwar.org/...

x Over the past 24 hours, the Russian fascist invaders carried out 43 air and four missile strikes, and fired 51 salvo rockets at the positions of Ukrainian troops and populated areas.



–General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine operational information at 06:00 on 18 June 2023 — Michael MacKay (@mhmck) June 18, 2023

Ukraine’s offensive in the southern part of the country is developing very slowly. After initial successes in two out of three directions — south of Zaporizhzhia and near the regional center of Velyka Novosilka in Donetsk — the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have as yet been unable to reach the main line of Russian defenses. In the third direction, southwest of the city of Orikhiv, the AFU has not had any success at all. Ukrainian troops are still adapting to the peculiarities of Russia’s defenses. Rather than breaking through the Russian front lines, as the AFU had originally planned for the offensives, they’ve switches to the same techniques in the south that they’re using in other areas — carrying out strikes on the Russian army’s rear with suicide drones and long-range artillery, and using small forces to assault Russian positions in forested areas. This type of fighting isn’t promising for decisive breakthroughs or the quick liberation of territory, but neither does it threaten major failures. Thanks to good reconnaissance and advantages with drones and long-range artillery accuracy, the AFU could achieve an acceptable loss ratio in terms of equipment. At the same time, Ukrainian command has not yet sent the main forces assembled for the offensive into battle. Attacks continue by four out of the 20 brigades that Ukraine formed specifically for the summer campaign and outfitted with Western equipment. Four or five “old” brigades, including the territorial defense, are also participating in the offensive, alongside “old” and “new” artillery brigades and powerful groups of drone operators. Two main questions arise from this set of conditions: How much do recent developments differ from Ukraine’s initial plan?

Does AFU command plan to carry out its main strike, with brigades and hundreds of tanks and other armored equipment, in the coming days and weeks? meduza.io/...

Key Takeaways Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive actions on at least four sectors of the front.

A delegation representing seven African states met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg following a meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky on June 16 to propose a generalized peace plan focused on resuming international trade.

The Kremlin will likely exploit this proposal to promote Russian information operations aiming to slow Western security assistance to Ukraine and has not demonstrated any intent to meaningfully engage with any peace process.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin continued to signal his disinterest in formally subordinating the Wagner private military company (PMC) to the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).

The New York Times (NYT) released a report supporting ISW’s prior assessment that Russian forces most likely destroyed the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, and Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted localized ground attacks west and south of Kreminna.

Russian forces and Ukrainian forces continued limited attacks in the Bakhmut area and on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.

Russian forces continued offensive operations near Vuhledar likely in response to Ukrainian territorial gains in the area on June 16.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near the administrative border between western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces intensified attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

The Kremlin continues efforts to gradually mobilize Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB).

Russian officials are planning several infrastructure projects connecting occupied Zaporizhia Oblast to occupied Crimea, likely to secure new ground lines of communication (GLOCs) for the Russian grouping in southern Ukraine. www.understandingwar.org/…

There are two ways to explain the discrepancy between predictions and the current reality of the war. The more popular explanation in the West holds that AFU command decided to start up the offensive slowly while preparing the main strike, which they will carry out later in one of the directions discussed above. If that scenario plays out, we should expect a massive attack with seven or eight brigades and hundreds of tanks somewhere on the front lines in the near future.

If that scenario plays out, we should expect a massive attack with seven or eight brigades and hundreds of tanks somewhere on the front lines in the near future. The second explanation holds that the AFU was unable to achieve its early-stage offensive goal of breaking through Russian defenses with relatively small forces, and that they have therefore delayed the second phase of bringing reserve forces into battle. If true, this would mean that the AFU needs to regroup around a new plan and, possibly, undertake difficult reconnaissance work on targets in the rear, minefields, Russian air defenses, and depleting some of Russia’s drone resources. It’s likely, if this scenario plays out, that AFU command will decide that it’s necessary to use large forces immediately to break through Russian defenses. Presumably, these forces would have been originally intended for actions after a breakthrough. meduza.io/...

x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - JUN 17



$100M+ in equipment losses for the 4th time this month



DEVELOPMENT:

$2.2B in the last 30 days ⬆

$105M reported today ⬆



Missiles & tanks account for roughly a half of today's reported losses



📈 https://t.co/FMLeBptBEw pic.twitter.com/gWbbtNNtjO — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 [email protected] (@ragnarbjartur) June 17, 2023

x Soldiers of the Dnipro brigade of the Territorial Defence Forces of Ukraine captured a Russian BMP-2 with a brand new engine, full of ammunition.



They took the trophy right under the enemy's nose.https://t.co/ZBTSx0MLag pic.twitter.com/G8Cma6YvRd — Michael MacKay (@mhmck) June 17, 2023 x Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine operational information as of 18:00 on 17 June 2023 regarding the Russian invasion



2/2 — Michael MacKay (@mhmck) June 17, 2023 www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on June 17. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks near Berestove (30km northwest of Svatove), Novoselivske (19km northwest of Svatove), and Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna).[24]... Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted localized ground attacks west and south of Kreminna on June 17. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian ground attacks near Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamyanka (11km east of Siversk).[27] The Russian Southern Group of Forces spokesperson claimed that Russian forces also repelled Ukrainian ground attacks near Rozdolivka, Vesele, and Yakovlivka (35km south of Kreminna).[28]....[29] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar acknowledged that Ukrainian forces continue both counteroffensive and defensive operations in eastern Ukraine.[30] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Russian and Ukrainian forces continued limited attacks in the Bakhmut area on June 17. Geolocated footage shows that Russian forces have made marginal advances north of Mayorsk (21km southwest of Bakhmut) as of June 17.[31] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that the intensity of combat operations in the Bakhmut direction has decreased and that Ukrainian forces continue counteroffensive efforts around Bakhmut.[33] The Russian Center Group of Forces spokesperson claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian ground attacks near Berkhivka and Yahidne (both within 3km northwest of Bakhmut).[34] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes) Russian forces continued offensive operations near Vuhledar on June 17, likely in response to Ukrainian territorial gains in the area on June 16.[40] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks on Novomykhailivka (19km northeast of Vuhledar) and Vodyane (6km northeast of Vuhledar).[41] Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near the administrative border between western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian artillery units repelled three Ukrainian attacks and reconnaissance-in-force attempts southwest and southeast of Velyka Novosilka.[42] A Russian moblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced between Urozhaine (10km south of Velyka Novosilka) and Novodonetske (13km southeast of Velyka Novosilka).[43] The milbloggger also claimed that elements of the “Kaskad” Operational Tactical Combat Formation and Russian regular forces continue to defend against Ukrainian attacks south of Velyka Novosilka. www.understandingwar.org/...

x yes - the Ukraine online campaign called 'NAFO' or 'Fellas' is "dominating the information space" with a "masterful ability to shape international narratives" through the "creative use of digital media" 😍 https://t.co/hk5k7ipL4z pic.twitter.com/OcoWCocFlZ — Dominic Helou 🇸🇾🇨🇭🇱🇧 (@dohelu) June 18, 2023

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/17/2176021/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-480-at-the-front-four-sectors-of-counterattacks

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