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Ukraine Invasion Day 478: Pentagon predicts Ukraine offensive will be long and ‘very violent’ [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-06-15

Even more violence is ahead and items like a future NATO membership have been floated.

BRUSSELS — Senior Pentagon officials predicted on Thursday a long, violent battle as Ukrainian forces attempt to drive occupying Russian troops out of their country, offering their most candid comments to date about a new offensive campaign reliant on Western military equipment and training. “The Russians have shown us [the] same five vehicles about a thousand times from 10 different angles,” “The Russians have shown us [the] same five vehicles about a thousand times from 10 different angles,” Austin said, downplaying the significance of Ukraine’s losses so far in the counteroffensive. “Quite frankly, the Ukrainians … still have a lot of combat capability.” He added that whichever side is better able to sustain its combat forces “will probably have the advantage at the end of the day.” www.washingtonpost.com/...

x Russian forces have constructed a network of trenches and barriers in an effort to prevent Ukraine from liberating occupied territory.



This updated map of Russia's fortifications shows many of these defensive lines and links each to satellite imagery.https://t.co/JGlYbCrrUE pic.twitter.com/F9KFPTQX4B — Brady Africk (@bradyafr) June 12, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three directions and reportedly made gains on June 15. Ukrainian General Staff Spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun reported that Ukrainian forces conducted successful offensive operations north and northwest of Bakhmut.[1] Ukraine’s Tavrisk Group of Forces Press Center reported that Ukrainian forces advanced up to one kilometer in western Donetsk Oblast and are continuing attempts to improve their tactical positions near Vuhledar (30km southwest of Donetsk City).[2] ...Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Department of the Ukrainian General Staff Brigadier General Oleksii Hromov reported that Ukrainian forces have advanced up to 3km near Mala Tokmachka in western Zaporizhia Oblast and up to 7km near Velyka Novosilka in western Donetsk Oblast and have liberated seven settlements in those areas since beginning counteroffensive operations.[4] Advisor to the Ukrainian Presidential Office Mykhailo Podolyak however stated on June 15 that Ukrainian forces have yet to launch counteroffensives “as such” but acknowledged that Ukrainian forces are conducting offensive actions, a likely clarification that Ukrainian forces have not yet begun their main effort.[5] ISW assesses that ongoing Ukrainian offensive operations are likely setting conditions for wider Ukrainian counteroffensive objectives that are not immediately clear and therefore represent the initial phase of an ongoing counteroffensive. www.understandingwar.org/...

Key Takeaways Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three directions and reportedly made gains on June 15.

Russian milbloggers continue to credit alleged superior Russian electronic warfare (EW) capabilities and defensive doctrine for Russian forces’ successful defenses against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in southern Ukraine.

Russian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes across Ukraine early in the morning of June 15.

The Russian military is advancing initial efforts to stand up new corps- and army-level formations to implement Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s announced intent to conduct large-scale force restructuring by 2026, though these new formations are not yet staffed and operational.

Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov deployed Chechen “Akhmat” special forces to border areas in Belgorod Oblast, likely as part of a continued effort to align himself with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).

Western states may provide F-16 fighter aircraft and additional Leopard tanks to Ukraine in the coming months.

Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

Ukrainian and Russian forces conducted ground attacks near Bakhmut, and Russian forces have gained territory as of June 15.

Ukrainian and Russian forces reportedly continued limited ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.

Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian forces are beginning to decommission specialized company-size assault units and transferring their personnel to volunteer formations.

Ukrainian partisans reportedly sabotaged a railway in occupied Melitopol, though ISW has observed no visual confirmation or Russian corroboration of the attack. www.understandingwar.org/...

x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - JUN 15



58 🇺🇦 losses added by @Rebel44CZ 🇨🇿 (incl. some older losses)



Ratios down due to a correction to 🇺🇦 totals



VISUALLY CONFIRMED:

2.9x losses to date ⬇

2.5x since 🇺🇦 2022 counteroffensive (Aug 29) ⬇

1.3x 30-day average ⬇



📈 https://t.co/WAX1xJpiBj pic.twitter.com/npboquWel2 — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 [email protected] (@ragnarbjartur) June 15, 2023

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on June 15. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Stelmakhivka (16km northwest of Svatove), Vyiimka (25km south of Kreminna), and Vesele (31km south of Kreminna).[25] Russian sources claimed on June 14 that elements of the 6th Combined Arms Army (Western Military District) conducted assaults in the direction of Kupyansk and that Russian forces continue to maintain a bridgehead on the west (right) bank of the Oskil River near Masyutivka (13km northeast of Kupyansk).[26] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty reported on June 15 that Russian forces have intensified indirect fire along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.[27] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Click here to read ISW’s retrospective analysis on the Battle for Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces continued counterattacks on the northern and southern flanks of Bakhmut on June 15. Ukrainian General Staff Spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun stated that Ukrainian forces conducted successful counterattacks near the Rozdolivka-Krasnopolivka (13–16km north of Bakhmut) and Berkhivka-Yahidne (2–4km north of Bakhmut) lines.[28] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced near Klishchiivka (5km southwest of Bakhmut) and conducted additional counterattacks near Ozaryanivka and Kurdyumivka (both 12–14km southwest of Bakhmut).[29] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Ukrainian forces have recaptured 16 square kilometers of ground during counterattacks near Bakhmut in the past two weeks.[30] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that Russian forces are transferring reserves from the Kherson direction to the Bakhmut area, though ISW has not yet observed Russian elements previously committed to Kherson Oblast recommitted near Bakhmut.[31] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Makarivka Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes) Russian and Ukrainian forces both conducted offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast on June 15. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces in the Shakhtarske (western Donetsk direction) conducted an unsuccessful attack towards Vodiane (directly northeast of Vuhledar and about 36km due east of Velyka Novosilka).[38] The Ukrainian Tavrisk Group of Forces Press Center notably reported on June 15 that Ukrainian forces have advanced up to one kilometer in the Vulhedar area, and Tavrisk Commander Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi stated that Ukrainian troops continue moving forward in this area.[39] Russian forces likely conducted a limited ground attack in the Vuhledar area in order to draw Ukrainian forces away from Velyka Novosilka, where Ukrainian troops continue counteroffensive operations. ... Several Russian sources claimed that elements of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) operational-tactical formation “Kaskad” are striking Ukrainian concentration areas in the Velyka Novosilka area.[42] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/...

x Conclusion:



Based on this analysis and the "pro-Russian" complaints:



This could be indeed one of the deadliest strikes since 24 FEB 2022, resulting in the dead of 100+ Russian soldiers while they were waiting for a speech for hours, 10km from the frontline.



15/X pic.twitter.com/2JxPPtv4uS — GeoConfirmed (@GeoConfirmed) June 16, 2023

x A Russian Truck with a mounted ZSU-23-2 Anti-Aircraft Gun catches fire and starts dancing after being hit by a Ukrainian 🇺🇦 Kamikaze Drone pic.twitter.com/otXS9LW5gb — Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) June 16, 2023

x In an interview with a Russian tabloid, a Russian serviceman in the south said that Ukraine's foreign tanks are very accurate, particularly at night, and he praised the Leopard's thermal optics.https://t.co/ZU3q7bZxRs pic.twitter.com/R7Y6PQjiI3 — Rob Lee (@RALee85) June 15, 2023

[END]
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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/15/2175687/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-478-Pentagon-predicts-Ukraine-offensive-will-be-long-and-very-violent

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