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Quick Explainer: More Elite Brigades Join Velyka Novosilka Off., Liberation of Urozhaine Claimed [1]
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Date: 2023-06-15
The battle unfolding south of Velyka Novosilka is getting larger and larger.
Ukraine opened the assault with three elite light infantry brigades: the 35th and 37th Marines, along with the 68th Jaeger Brigades. The battlefield is split into two, east and west, by the winding Mokri Yaly River. The 35th Marines advanced to the west of the river, the 68th Jaeger to the east, and the 37th Marines further to the east.
On June 12th, the 4th Tank Brigade’s armor were filmed by the 37th Marines’ reconnaissance drone attacking positions presumably in cooperation with the 37th Marines. This would place the 4th Tank Brigade on the east side of the Mokri Yaly River.
x Footage reportedly from the Velyka Novosilka axis. The 4th tank brigade in collaboration with recon units of the 37th marine brigade storm a Russian position. pic.twitter.com/th6tcJxjd7 — NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) June 12, 2023
Meanwhile, on June 13th, a Reuters photographer snapped a series of photos in the newly liberated town of Neskuchne, that included a few soldiers from the 25th Air Assault Brigade. This would have them strengthening the advance of the 35th Marines west of the river.
The 25th Air Assault Brigade was previously positioned west of Kreminna on the Northern (Kremmina/Svatove) Front, thus it appears to have been moved to this area. This appears to make a Luhansk region northern offensive less likely.
Meanwhile, the 3rd Tank Brigade is reportedly lurking as a reserve force on the west side of the river, and an Asia Times article reports the 82nd Air Assault Brigade artillery now supporting the 35th Marines. Neither of these assertions has photographic evidence, thus are less credible but seem plausible.
If true, Ukraine is amassing a tremendous amount of combat power in this area. On the Russian side, there are reports of major reinforcements being brought into this area in response to Ukrainian advances as well.
4th Tank Bde : A tank formation with around 100 tanks, primarily T-72 and T-64 tanks. Presumed to have 2 companies (28) Leopard 2 tanks. Led the spearhead in the Kharkiv counteroffensive.
25th Air Assault Bde : An elite and fast-moving highly mechanized airborne infantry brigade with a strong contingent of heavy tanks. Previously relied on T-72 tanks, but was one of 2 airborne units to receive Challenger 2 training in the UK . Believed to have 7-14 Challenger 2 tanks. Also led the spearhead in the Kharkiv Counteroffensive.
82nd Air Assault Bde (?) : A newly formed unit, but is known to have drawn a core of veteran soldiers and officers from the 25th and 80th Air Assault Bdes. The 80th Airborne would be veterans of the Battle of Bakkhmut. The 82nd Is known to have received some of the best Western equipment and has been called the strongest assault formation in the Ukrainian army—equipped with Challenger 2 tanks, Marder Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs), and Stryker IFVs.
3rd Tank Bde (?) : A tank formation with around 100 tanks, predominantly T-72s, and T-64s. Is believed to have a handful of the advanced T-84 tanks, a Ukrainian upgraded version of the T-80. Fought effectively at the Battle of Lyman.
The latest development reported by the Kyiv Post says Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar announced the liberation of Urozhaine. This is in the middle of the night in Ukraine, which makes sense as Ukraine has been making its major assaults in darkness to take advantage of its night fighting equipment advantage.
Urozhaine was a small town east of the river that posed as the front line for the past 2 days. At a minimum, it appears the town may be contested. I’m not very clear on where the Russian defense line would form up if Urozhaine has fallen, so I’m awaiting more information while the situation on the right appears fluid.
On the left, I have conflicting information on whether Ukraine controls Rivnopil, a tiny village of a few hundred citizens. It does, however, serve to protect the Russian left flank. No confirmed liberation, so for now I’m assuming the Russian left continues to hold.
As for the advance at the center to the west, Ukraine reportedly made some incremental gains towards Staromaiorsk after repelling multiple Russian counterattacks on Makarivka.
Some interesting information has come out about the 35th Marines' initial surge down the west side of the Mokri Yaly River. Col. Yuriy Andriyenko, commander of the 35th Marines, took a page out of the US Army playbook and employed a “thunder run” tactic to make a rapid advance on the first few days of the offensive before Russian reinforcements arrived.
The original thunder run was a tactic employed by the US Army in Vietnam, but this refers to the tactics employed by the US 3rd Infantry Division during the 2003 Battle of Baghdad.
American plans for the attack on Baghdad called for a slower and more methodical attack into Baghdad that required waiting for reinforcements. Only then, would a large force of multiple brigades and a heavier armored force advance into Baghdad.
But Col. Eric Schwartz noted that the defenses were still in a weak and disorganized state. With his single battalion, Col. Schwartz launched a fast-moving armored assault aimed at capturing key positions in downtown Baghdad. This turned out to be precisely the right decision as Schwartz was able to inflict several hundred casualties and secure his objective for the loss of a single soldier KIA and 1 lost tank.
Subsequent attacks into the city after the defenders were better prepared were more costly, and Col. Schwartz was praised for his initiative and tactical innovation, and his push into the city became called the first of the US Army’s “thunder runs.”
During the thunder runs, instead of deploying into a battleline, the US forces deployed into vertical mechanized assault columns. Tanks would lead the way at the head of the column, firing upon and destroying enemy fixed points and demoralizing the enemy.
Subsequently, infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) and Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs) would follow, using their smaller autocannons and heavy machine guns to destroy any enemy forces that continued to resist. They would unload dismounted infantry to fan out and secure the flanks at key junctures.
Each vehicle would maintain a 50m distance, and the convoy was ordered to keep moving forwards at 9-10mph and maintain speed even during combat since possible.
Thunder runs use shock, superior armored forces, speed, and initiative to penetrate enemy defensive positions and secure key locations necessary for the defense. It is most effective when the enemy lacks a heavily armored component and exploits the enemy’s disorganization or poor communication/coordination to rapidly secure key objectives at the expense of a broader advance.
The Ukrainian 35th Marines utilized this tactic to rapidly advance from Velyka Novosilka to Makarivka.
They can be observed using the tactic in several clips showing the capture of Makarivka.
x Footage of the liberation of Makarivka by the 137th batallion of the 35th marine brigade 🇺🇦✅ pic.twitter.com/pGOAzViKAb — NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) June 13, 2023
Now that the Russians have rushed reinforcements to the area, it appears that the thunder runs are likely no longer an ideal tactic to use against the Russians in this position. However, Col. Andriyenko's decision to employ the tactic appears to have succeeded in catching the Russian defensive positions unprepared by the fast-moving assault columns.
When Reuters reporters arrived at Storzheve a few days later, they found the area littered with neutralized Russian vehicles and bodies.
x Reuters went to Storozhneve, in particular the road which is shown on the footage of June 12.
"The road is littered with Russian corpses and knocked out Russian armored vehicles," Reuters commented on the released footage.
https://t.co/NKG88SK9CH pic.twitter.com/mBwOGqHjTT — NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) June 14, 2023
As Russia has rushed reinforcements to this area to try to stem the tide of the Ukrainian advance, so too does Ukraine appearing to transition into a major assault force to maintain the initiative.
As I mentioned previously, it appears the near-term goal is the capture of Staromlynivka, which would secure the T0518 Highway right up to the main line of Russian defenses.
The defenses in this area are far less formidable than the defenses north of Tokmak.
I’ll end with an astute observation from Stanimir Dobrev:
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[1] Url:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/15/2175528/-Quick-Explainer-More-Elite-Brigades-Join-Velyka-Novosilka-Off-Liberation-of-Urozhaine-Claimed
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