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Maps Explain Ukraine's SE Counteroffensive & 2nd Blown Dam [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-06-14

Where are the villages Ukraine liberated ? Why were they liberated now ? Where is the second dam Russia blew up ? Why did they blow it up now ? Maps help answer these questions.

I’ve been trying to answer these questions, and finally found some answers in maps, and an understanding of the importance of railroads to Russia. I wish to share these maps with the DK community, as I’ve haven’t been able to understand these issues from the media and their maps.

Four different maps need to be combined to explain the southeast counteroffensive – geography, railroads, defensive fortifications, and rivers. This diary shows each of these maps, with only the fortifications superimposed. (Putting everything on a single map is feasible, but makes it hard to read, especially when different scales require inserts to show the detail.)

The map and information sources are at end of this diary.

The first map is an overview of where the fighting is taking place in Southern Ukraine. The location of the fighting in the southeast is shown with the blue arrow. The location of the first blown dam is shown in black in the lower left. (Also, there is fighting between Vasylivka, at the right edge of the lake formed by the Dnipro River and the blue arrow.)

Overview Map of the Fighting in Southern Ukraine Showing Southeast Counteroffensive

The second map is a detailed view of the four villages that have been liberated as of June 12, and the villages that will likely be liberated next if all goes well for Ukraine. The town of Velyka Novosilka is the reference point between the first two maps, and will be used in later maps. The town of Staromlynivka is a second reference point in the maps that follow. (Please don’t confuse Staromlynivka with the village north of it named Staromaiors’ke.)

Villages Liberated in the Southeast

The third map shows the second dam that Russia blew up. The dam, along with the hydro-electric plant (part of the dam), and a road are shown in the inset in the upper right. The river the dam is located on is the Mokri Yaly River, which flows north. It flows into a larger river, which flows into an even larger river, before flowing into the dominant river – the Dnipro – at Dnipro City.

The town of Staromlynivka is just north of the dam, and the river flows thru this town. (I don’t recall any news reports on what happened to this town after the dam was blown. It can’t be good news.)

Second Dam Russia Blew Up

The last two maps attempt to explain why Ukraine is attacking in this area, and why Russia blew up this dam.

The fourth map shows the main railroad lines in the area of the fighting and where these lines go to, except on the left, which is the west. These western lines go to Crimea, Melitopol, Kherson, Nova Kakhovka (where the first dam was blown), the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, Vasylivka (seen on the first map), and Zaporizhzhia City.

The only railroad link between the west and Donetsk City, and points beyond in the east, is the dark green line between Volnovakha and Kamysh-Zoria. This line is key to the land bridge from Russia to Crimea, as well as to the entire western zone occupied by Russia. Russia is heavily dependent upon this railroad line for transport of military equipment, soldiers and supplies. Cut this railroad line, and Russia is in trouble.

In my opinion, Ukraine is attacking south from Velyka Novosilka to cut this railroad line. The words “Current Location” is a where Ukraine troops were as of June 12, 2023. It is for illustration more than accuracy. The blue line is the direction of their likely attack. The green “RR Objective” is likely where Ukraine hopes to cut the railroad line, although they have the option of a large number of places to cut the line. The Russian Defensive Line is explained with the next map.

Main Railroads in the Southeast. Current Situation with Counteroffensive Shown.

The fifth, and last, map shows what is confronting Ukraine in their attack. Their starting point at Velyka Novosilka and their current location are at the upper left. The town of Staromlynivka, where the distance marker starts, is along Ukraine’s path to the railroad. Its dam was blown to flood this town and the surrounding area to stop Ukraine’s advance, or greatly impede it.

Ukraine has about 22 miles to travel to reach their objective, once they take Staromlynivka, as shown by the measurement line, which is as the crow flies.

However, there is a rather large obstacle in their path. It is Russia’s main defensive line, which is the big, red line on the map. This line is part of the defensive wall Russia built over the winter months. The details of this defensive line weren’t provided by the source, who treated trenches, anti- tank ditches, mines, dragon’s teeth, etc. as all the same. (The location came from scores of satellite pictures, and is an irregular line with auxiliary lines, but shown as a straight line for the purpose of this diary.)

The town of Vuhledar is circled as a reference point.

The city of Volnovakha is highlighted with a polka dotted line on the right. This city is where the mainline railroads from the west, Donetsk City and Mariupol meet, and is a key town. Earlier, Ukraine tried to attack in this direction from Vuhledar, but failed.

Southeast Counteroffensive as of June 12, 2023 (Unfortunately Google Maps doesn’t show railroads in Ukraine.)

As you probably have surmised by now, Ukraine is in the early stages of their campaign to cut the main east-west railroad and land bridge to Crimea. They are currently fighting though the Russian outer defenses. Russia has flooded the area in their front by blowing the dam on the river to stop them, or at least greatly slow them down.

Ukraine has a long way to go and a major defensive line to breach before they reach their objective. It looks to me to be a long, bloody fight. Russia isn’t going to give up this key railroad line and land bridge without a bitter fight.

Sources:

Google Maps — without these maps this diary wouldn’t have been possible

“A Railhead Too Far: The Strategic Role of Railroads during Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine, by Maria Engqvist” FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency, www.foi.se/...

Prior Ukraine attack from Vuhledar — www.dailykos.com/...

Map of Ukraine Railroad — www.bueker.net/...

Brady Africk, American Enterprise Institute — Russian Fortifications — twitter.com/… and www.google.com/...

Finally, a very nice video about Ukraine’s Railroads and Their Importance:

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/14/2175069/-Maps-Explain-Ukraine-s-SE-Counteroffensive-amp-2nd-Blown-Dam

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