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Quick Explainer: 500+ Armored Vehicles Launching a Massed Attack Will Signal the Real Main Assault [1]

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Date: 2023-06-12

In my prior diary, I wrote early in the morning about a significant opportunity for Ukraine and that a tactical breakthrough had occurred. I was busy most of the day, and when I began reading the comments in the evening, I realized I may have inadvertently misled people into thinking Ukraine had blown through Russia’s defenses and was on the march to the Sea of Azov.

That was not at all the message I intended to convey, and to anyone who felt misled, I apologize for some poor clarity on my part.

First, some terminology.

A “breakthrough” refers to any time when a defensive line is breached by a unit. If a single platoon causes an opposing platoon to flee and has a 200-yard opening into which it advances, that’s a breakthrough. If Patton’s Third Army blows a hole in the German line and floods through the gap, that’s also a breakthrough.

Breakthrough does not imply that the enemy defensive line as a whole has been breached, or that Ukraine overran a system of trenches or fortifications. It does not imply friendly units have a clear path to enemy rearward areas and there are no reserves to block them. A breakthrough is simply when the enemy line has been breached, and there is an opening into which friendly units can advance.

Breakthroughs can be of different sizes and scopes, and what kind of breakthrough is referenced indicates what kind of exploitation of the breakthrough might be expected.

Tactical breakthrough refers to a tactical-sized unit (company, i.e. 200 soldiers and smaller generally) penetrating an enemy position. This may lead to a few enemy companies being surrounded or forced to retreat. This is a localized crisis for the enemy that might usually lead to the gain of a few key positions unless the tactical breakthrough can be turned into an operational breakthrough.

Operational breakthrough refers to operational-sized units (battalions or brigades, a thousand to several thousand soldiers) rendering their opposing counterparts unable to resist, and move forwards. This is a much larger crisis for the enemy than a tactical breakthrough and can lead to large gains. The Kharkiv Counteroffensive is an example of an operational breakthrough, where Ukraine was able to gain a decisive initiative and drive the Russians back 50-100km in several weeks.

Strategic breakthrough refers to even larger theater-sized breakthroughs that can wreck entire armies. This essentially means an entire army is no longer able to muster any reserves to counter the enemy advance, and represents a catastrophic crisis for the enemy. The US Army’s “left hook” during the Gulf War piercing the Iraqi reserve defenses to cut off their line of retreat would be a prime example. The World War Two Allied breakout from Normandy’s defense lines and advance through much of France might also be considered a strategic breakthrough.

So, the focus of today’s article will be on the Ukrainian operation south of Velyka Novosilka.

When a Ukrainian force punched through one of the frontal defense lines of Russia and flanked the Russian positions around the city of Urozhaine, I characterized this as a “tactical breakthrough” and emphasized the tactical gains, like dislodging the Russians from heights around Storozheve as a potential benefit.

This appears to have been what happened the past 24 hours—Russian sources note their position at Urozhaine is being hit by flanking attacks, while the Russians ceded the high ground at Storozheve and retreated to Staromaiorske. Ukraine also reported that it repelled counterattacks on Storozheve.

Storozheve is of key importance due to the heights west of the town that overlooks almost everything within 15-20km, a prime artillery position.

Given the advantageous position Ukraine has in hitting Urozhaine from the flank, I hope that the Russians can be quickly dislodged from this position as well.

Stepping back from the tactical day-to-day, I want to emphasize that this is not yet the main Ukrainian attack nor is there any guarantee that it will be.

The Ukrainians are attacking an unfortified Russian salient at Velyka Novosilka. The going is a lot easier in this area in part because Russia’s main line of fortifications lies south of Staromlynivka.

Ukraine’s advanced about 10km in a week on a broad 30km wide front. Furthermore, Ukraine is mostly launching attacks with light infantry brigades like the 35th and 37th Marine Brigades and is keeping its heavy armored units in the area in reserve. The marines are using mobility, dismounted infantry tactics, and precision artillery to advance. Units like the 4th Tank Brigade have been kept mostly in reserve and have not been major participants thus far.

This is not to say that Ukraine’s victories in this area aren’t good news. It is. This isn’t like the Russians at Vuhledar, where a mountain of destroyed AFVs (armored fighting vehicles) yielded almost nothing for the Russians or Bakhmut where Russia advanced an average of 2km a month for 6 months.

But we need to be measured in our understanding of what these successes mean—Ukraine is getting closer to Russia’s main defense lines.

Russia’s defense line here is much thinner than Tokmak. You can easily see the density and number of layers of defense are significantly greater around Tokmak.

So if Ukraine chooses to launch a major assault in this area south of Velyka Novosilka, the big showdown will happen after Ukraine captures Staromlynivka. That’s about another 10km—what Ukraine’s covered in the first week of the advance.

If Ukraine can keep this progress going, Ukraine will hopefully be running into the main Russian defense line in about 1-2 weeks.

That is when the real fireworks may begin to go off.

How will we know when Ukraine’s main assault has started? US Army Lt. General (ret.) Ben Hodges, the former Commanding General of US Army Europe and former Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) wrote an opinion piece at CEPA explaining how.

To be simple: “Wait for the Heavy Brigades.”

When we see large, armored formations join the assault, then I think we’ll know the main attack has really begun. To date, I don’t think we’ve witnessed this concentration of several hundred tanks and infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) in the attack. A Ukrainian tank battalion normally has 31 tanks. An armored infantry battalion would have about the same number. Add in armored vehicles carrying engineers, air defense, logistics, and so on. An armored brigade would likely have three tank battalions and one or two mechanized infantry battalions. In total, then, an armored brigade is going to have 250-plus armored vehicles of different types. I estimate that the Ukrainians have put together anywhere from seven to 12 armored brigades. Some may have only Ukrainian or captured Russian equipment, and others will have a mix of Western-provided kit. When we see two or three of those brigades (around 500-750 armored vehicles) focused on a narrow front, it will then be possible to say that the main attack has probably started and where it’s happening.

Oryx has documented the delivery of approximately 600 Main Battle Tanks (MBTs), 500 Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs), 1200 Armored Personnel Carriers (IPCs), and 900 Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles (MRAPs), or around 3200 light and heavy armored vehicles.

Ukraine started the war with around 700 active T-64s, 300 T-72s, and 130 T-80s, or around 1100 tanks. Ukraine has lost hundreds of tanks through a year of warfare, but Ukraine has conservatively, 1400 or more tanks.

So Gen. Hodges’ estimate of 12 heavy armored brigades does not sound far-fetched. Ukraine has committed probably one armored brigade in the Tokmak area (33rd Assault Brig), and one more appears to be lightly engaged but mostly in reserve in the Velyka Novosilka area (4th Tank Brig.)

So when multiple tank battalions, supported by hundreds of IFVs and APCs begin surging forwards to strike multiple points along the contact line with concentrated groups, that will tell you the Ukrainian main assault has likely begun.

If such an assault fails, there won’t be one photo that Russia keeps circulating online of a cluster of destroyed tanks and armored vehicles. There will be dozens, and dozens, all over the front line.

If such an assault succeeds, we should see a big movement of Ukrainian penetrations at multiple points along the Russian fortification line.

There won’t be this ambiguity.

But even then, remember that if Ukraine throws two or three Armored Brigades into an assault, Ukraine may have five to nine more armored brigades still in reserve. There may be more heavy assaults to come elsewhere, or more brigades fed into the successful portion of the assault.

All that’s to say, we’re still at the very, very beginning of the Ukrainian counterattack.

Update: Someone just gifted me with a one-year subscription to DKos anonymously. To whomever was so generous, I just wanted to say thank you!

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/12/2174913/-Quick-Explainer-500-Armored-Vehicles-Launching-a-Massed-Assault-Will-Signal-the-Real-Main-Assault

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