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Realistic view on war in Ukraine needed [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-06-10

Since decades, there has not been a war that is so obviously a battle between good and evil as the one Vladimir Putin started with its invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine has achieved enormous successes by not collapsing after a few days, forcing the invasion army to retreat from large parts of the country and having mostly stabilized the frontlines since months. The expectations that this success story continues with the big offensive awaited for months could not have been higher, and tons of stories on this page with arrows drawn on maps have cheered this all up.

Unfortunately, after the offensive has started, things don’t seem to turn out as these arrows predicted, at least for the moment. That is why I want to mention some issues where the view on the situation needs to get more realistic. Don’t get me wrong: I want Ukraine to succeed completely and immediately. But sadly, nobody should be surprised or disappointed about a stalemate for years or even decades. It might be better to expect the worst and hope for the best.

Western gear

Despite the heated debates focusing on the delivery of certain weapon systems in the past (Leopard tanks) and at the moment (F16 jets), there is no “silver bullet” that can change the whole course of the war. The very first contact with the enemy has shown that stuff like minefields, artillery, ATGMs or even airpower make advances for Ukraine equally painful as for the much applauded Russian failures in Vuhledar.

What is even more concerning is that NATO surplus storages are emptying, and some countries have already given some of their most modern kits from their active forces. The promised weapon systems tend to get more outdated, as the delivery of Leopard 1 tanks show. And the production capacities of complex systems have not been increased significantly even more than a year after the war started, as current delivery schedules for small amounts of replacement or promised equipment proof. The output of weapon and ammunition factories is extremely important for the large-scale wars, and I’m quite sure that Russia still has an advantage in that area. For how long have we been reading that the Russian missiles will soon be used up? And how many have been fired on Ukraine in May alone?

Sanctions

I can keep it short: I may be wrong, but have sanctions ever had a significant influence on a war or a regime? Especially when they are applied half-heartedly, are easy to bypass by exports to countries like Armenia and Kazakhstan, are actively sabotaged by supposed allies like Hungary and are completely ignored by the rest of the non-western world.

Russian incompetence

Russia might have wanted to take over Ukraine as a whole and install a puppet regime. It failed completely in reaching this goal. But before this war started, the number one guess for Russia’s war aim was creating a land bridge to Crimea. As of today, this is reached, with additional control of nearly all of Luhansk oblast.

Kicking the Russians out of the oblasts of Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy was a big initial success of Ukraine. But these retreats themselves were done competently, without loosing much equipment or soldiers. The retreat from the Kherson areas north of the Dnieper was astounding, and even in the only real outright Ukrainian victory in Kharkiv oblast smaller pockets like the one in Lyman were competently evacuated. The destruction of the Kakhovka completely eliminated the threat of large-scale Ukrainian attacks over the river for several weeks. And the large defensive lines build along the whole frontline could become the next example for a military which is certainly not as incompetent as supposed. The battle for the information sphere regarding the Ukrainian offensive has already been won by Russia with the videos released in the last days.

Russian morale

A lot of people were hoping for Russian soldiers fleeing or surrendering in large numbers. How ignorant after centuries of experience with Russian warfare and endless videos of Russians soldiers literally fighting to death in hopeless situations in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s war aim…

..was voiced to kick the Russians out of Ukraine. Try counting the settlements Russia currently occupies on a map. We are talking about thousands of settlements, villages and medium and large cities. Crimea for example is a natural fortress impossible to isolate, as hundreds of thousands of Axis soldiers found out in some of the most ferocious battles of World War II.

Ukraine’s society

What the Ukrainian people has achieved is unbelievable and heroic. But Ukraine was an extremely poor country even before the war, with its economy now shattered and millions of mostly women and children having fled to Europe. Every day these people spent in this safe, comfortable and wealthy environment, send their children to schools and universities and learn new languages, their desire to return to Ukraine will inevitably decrease. None of them or their hosts is to blame for that, but it is a long-term catastrophe for Ukraine.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/story/2023/6/10/2174492/-Realistic-view-on-war-in-Ukraine-needed

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