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Ukraine Invasion Day 471: June 8 attacks in western Zaporizhia do not represent full capabilities [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2023-06-08
There are differential outcomes as the counteroffensive unfolds.
Ukrainian attacks in western Zaporizhia on June 8 do not represent the full extent of Ukrainian capabilities in the current counteroffensive. Ukraine previously demonstrated the ability to conduct a coordinated and effective offensive operation using multiple mechanized brigades as early as September 2022 during the liberation of Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian forces possessed this capability – in terms of both available forces and the capacity to coordinate complex attacks – before the provision of Western kit for offensive brigades and additional training from NATO partners. Ukraine’s counteroffensive will likely consist of many undertakings of varied size, including more localized attacks as observed in this sector on June 8, and the smaller efforts do not represent the maximum capacity of Ukrainian numbers or effectiveness. Ukraine reportedly formed 12 dedicated counteroffensive brigades, nine equipped with Western kit and three with existing equipment, and these units will almost certainly be joined by experienced Ukrainian units already online. [18] Ukraine appears to have committed only a portion of the large reserve of forces available for counteroffensive operations, and observers should avoid counting down reported Ukrainian brigades committed or reportedly damaged Western kit as the measure of the remaining effective combat power of Ukrainian forces.
⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - JUN 8 June's losses have already surpassed the whole of April DEVELOPMENT: $2.1B in the last 30 days ⬆ $88M reported today ⬇ Tanks, artillery & air defence systems make up the bulk of today's reported losses 📈
https://t.co/heJizFgqc6 pic.twitter.com/69rPpj3J8m
Russian forces appear to have executed their formal tactical defensive doctrine in response to the Ukrainian attacks southwest of Orikhiv. Russian doctrine for a defending motorized rifle battalion calls for a first echelon of troops to repel or slow attacking forces with minefields, fortifications, and strongpoints, with a second echelon of forces counterattacking against an enemy breakthrough. [16] Russian forces apparently operated in this fashion in this sector – Ukrainian forces penetrated the initial defensive lines; Russian forces pulled back to a second line of fortifications; and Russian reserves subsequently counterattacked to retake the initial line of defenses. [17] This maneuver is a regular feature of defensive operations and has been executed by both Ukrainian and Russian forces throughout the war. Early control of terrain changes day to day should thus not be misconstrued as the overall result of a wider attack.
www.understandingwar.org/...
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
Ukrainian forces continued to conduct limited ground attacks on the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts on June 8. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that fighting in the Velyka Novosilka direction continues. [42] Ukrainian Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi stated that Ukrainian offensive operations in southern Ukraine are successful and that Russian forces are on the defensive. [43] The Russian Eastern Group of Forces (Eastern Military District) Spokesperson Oleg Chekhov claimed that Russian forces conducted air and artillery strikes against attacking Ukrainian forces in western Donetsk Oblast and against rear positions near Vremivka (immediately west of Velyka Novosilka) and Novodonetske (11km southeast of Velyka Novosilka). [44] Geolocated footage shows that Ukrainian forces struck Russian howitzer positions east of Staromlynivka (14km south of Velyka Novosilka) and destroyed a TOS-1A thermobaric artillery system just north of Zavitne Bazhannia (12km south of Velyka Novosilka). [45]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Russian forces continued to conduct limited ground attacks on the Kupyansk-Svatove line and around Kreminna on June 8. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Vesele (32km south of Kreminna). [28] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces conducted ground attacks near Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna) and Berestove (30km south of Kreminna). [29] A Russian source claimed that positional battles continued near Masyutivka (12km northeast of Kupyansk) and that Russian forces destroyed three Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups near Novoselivske (13km northeast of Svatove) on June 7. [30] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that Russian forces in the Kupyansk direction are conducting air and artillery strikes. [31]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Click here to read ISW’s retrospective analysis on the Battle for Bakhmut.
Ukrainian forces made limited gains around Bakhmut on June 8. Geolocated footage published on June 7 indicates that Ukrainian forces made limited advances near Berkhivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut). [33] Ukrainian and Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces made advances 1.8km wide and 1.2km deep along the western bank of the Siverskyi Donetsk Canal west of Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut) and forced elements of the Russian 57th Motorized Infantry Brigade (5th Combined Arms Army, Eastern Military District) and convict servicemen of the “Storm-Z” unit out of their positions. [34] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut), Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut), and Pivnichne (20km southwest of Bakhmut). [35] Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian forces are advancing in the Bakhmut direction. [36] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty also stated at least 81,000 Wagner servicemen have been killed or wounded in the fighting around Bakhmut since July 2022. [37]
www.understandingwar.org/...
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[1] Url:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/8/2174076/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-471-June-8-attacks-in-western-Zaporizhia-do-not-represent-full-capabilities
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