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The Strategic Situation in Ukraine, June 2023. [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2023-06-06
The war for Ukrainian independence continues and now moves into its next chapter. While Russia has added to its long list of war crimes by blowing the dam at Nova Kharkova, it is becoming clear that at this moment Russia is waiting for the Ukrainian hammer to drop. And this hammer may already be dropping at this moment.
Thus, let’s take a step back and summarize where the war is currently.
Russia:
1. Any realistic notion of the Russian conquest of Ukraine is now gone and the Russian military is instead now focusing on keeping its gains.
2. The infighting within the Russian military establishment has grown considerably as both high-ranking officers and warlords (Prigozhin and Kadyrov) are more focused on maneuvering for political advantage rather than formulating any cohesive strategic plan. This has not only created a split in the command structure but also heightened competition for scarce military resources.
3. While Russian forces at the tactical and ground level have improved in basic field craft, their operational capabilities are still limited due to their overextended and poor logistical capabilities along with inadequate reconnaissance and tactical targeting.
4. Recent armed incursions into Russia have exposed political divisions and are starting to bring the war into the domestic consciousness in Russia's two main power centers, Moscow and St. Petersburg. This is bringing additional pressure on Putin’s political power establishment even if Putin remains secure in his position.
5. Russia has increasingly pulled troops from its Central Asian and far Eastern military districts to the point where Russia’s sphere of influence in Central Asia has been greatly diminished and with the void being filled by China.
Ukraine:
1. Ukraine has consolidated its gains from the previous counteroffensives in the Kharkiv and Kherson sectors. Ukraine has also fixed Russian forces in place in the Bakhmut/Donbass region while creating time to incorporate additional Western arms within its armed forces.
2. Western political support has thus far remained steadfast in its support for Ukraine. However domestic political cracks are forming as the conflict continues and no major actions have taken place to bring the conflict to a conclusion. Political groups on the far right and far left could make inroads in eroding support for Ukraine as domestic economic challenges mount.
3. Ukraine has been effective in maintaining intelligence security around its operational plans and capabilities, even to the point of confusing its allies. Ukraine's concerns about intelligence sharing were substantiated by the large intelligence leak from the U.S in April this year.
4. Ukraine’s military capabilities are now approaching a near-peer NATO level. A tighter air defense, increased capabilities in long-range fires, and the air power situation finally appearing to be addressed with possible F/A-18 donations from Australia and F-16 training from the US and Europe have made Ukraine a significant threat to Russia’s southwestern flank and the Caucasus.
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As mentioned by General Hodges, the main target for Ukraine will be Crimea by severing Russia’s land bridge and cutting off the Crimea canal thus placing Crimea under siege. Yet, the Ukrainian general staff has shown they are capable of creating and exploiting opportunities and could make advances along other lines of direction. I believe that Ukraine is not wedded to any one strategy but will take opportunities where it sees them. Thus, Ukraine will be able to maintain an operation tempo that will be hard for Russia to adjust to.
By the end of this calendar year, barring any significant development outside the parameters mentioned above, I believe that Ukraine will be in a position to control the flow of the conflict and place Russia in an increasingly vulnerable state. In the long run, Russia will not be able to withstand the siege on its economy and mounting losses in its military.
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https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/6/2173598/-The-Strategic-Situation-in-Ukraine-June-2023
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