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Ukraine Invasion Day 468: Kyiv remains silent about its strategy [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2023-06-05

Clarification: The worst case here is that all the floodgates are blown, ie 200 meters. The entire dam is 3500 meters and in the event that 400 m or 1 800 m would be torn down the modeled time for the water to hit Cherson City would be almost halved. There would be some more flooding.

A worst case modelling for a russian demolition of the Nova Kakhovka Dnipro river dam show that the worst flooding will take place on the left (south east) side of the river bank. A 4 – 5 m wave will hit the Antonovsky bridge east of Cherson city after 19 hours, and there will be a backswell flooding up the Inhulets river, and after 4 – 5 days there would be some flooding up the river Bug to Mykolaiv. The demolition of the Nova Kakhovka dam is a war crime according to the Geneva Convention, but Russia has already systematically broken the Geneva convention during it’s illegal war in Ukraine.

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces reportedly conducted unsuccessful reconnaissance-in-force operations northeast of Kharkiv City on June 5. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that a Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group unsuccessfully attempted to cross the Russian border into Ukraine near Zelene (34km northeast of Kharkiv City).[32]

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Novoselivske (15km northwest of Svatove) and Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna).[33] Russian milbloggers also claimed that fighting was ongoing near Novoselivske and Bilohorivka.[34] Russian milbloggers continued to claim that Russian forces seized Novomlynsk (21km northeast of Kupyansk), while other milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced near the settlement.[35] ISW has not observed visual evidence that Russian forces advanced toward or seized Novomlynsk. The pace of Russian attacks seemingly decreased since June 4.[36]

www.criticalthreats.org/...

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued limited offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on June 5. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked Ukrainian positions near Nevelske (17km northwest of Donetsk City) and Marinka (20km west of Donetsk City).[37] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks near Opytne (3km southwest of Avdiivka) and Vodyane (7km southwest of Avdiivka), with one source characterizing the attacks as reconnaissance-in-force operations.[38] A Russian milblogger also claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks near Pervomaiske (10km southwest of Avdiivka).[39] The Russian MoD reported that Chechen “Akhmat” Special Forces (Spetsnaz) units continued to conduct offensive actions near Marinka.[40] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces attempted to seize the initiative in Marinka and seized unspecified Russian positions south of Marinka.[41]

www.criticalthreats.org/...

Ukrainian forces made limited advances north and southwest of Bakhmut on June 5. Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces are conducting offensive operations on the eastern front in the Bakhmut area and advanced 200 to 1,600 meters in the direction of Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut), and 100 to 700 meters near Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut) and Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).[5] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty reported that mechanized Ukrainian forces also advanced from 300 meters to one kilometer in the direction of Zaliznyanske (13km north of Bakhmut) and Bohdanivka (8km northwest of Bakhmut).[6] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked the Ukrainian forces in the Bakhmut direction for “moving forward” in their areas of responsibility on June 5.[7] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that Ukrainian forces captured an unspecified part of Berkhivka (6km north of Bakhmut) and criticized the Russian military command for previously withdrawing Russian forces from the Berkhivksy Reservoir on May 12 to protect their positions in the settlement.[8]

www.criticalthreats.org/...

Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks in western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts, and made further limited tactical gains on June 5. Geolocated footage published on June 4 and 5 indicates that Ukrainian forces likely advanced southwest of Velyka Novosilka and within 1.5km northwest of Storozheve (5km southwest of Velyka Novosilka).[42] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces crossed the Shaitanka River and conducted assaults near Novodonetske (13km southeast of Velyka Novosilka) throughout the day.[43] Milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces pushed Russian forces out of Novodonetske and maintained a presence within the settlement as of the evening of June 5.[44] Russian ”Vostok” volunteer battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky, who is reportedly commanding forces near Novodonetske, confirmed that Ukrainian forces maintain a presence within the settlement.[45] Russian milbloggers claimed that elements of the 36th Combined Arms Army (Eastern Military District) and the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) “Kaskad” Operational Combat Tactical Formation also defended against Ukrainian advances around Novodonetske.[46] The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces repelled three Ukrainian “battalion tactical groups” (BTGs) reinforced with tanks that attacked IVO Novodonetske and Blahodatne (5km southwest of Velyka Novosilka).[47] Ukrainian forces are not organized in BTGs so it is unclear what echelon of Ukrainian forces the Russian MoD claims is participating in these ground attacks. Russian milbloggers widely claimed that Russian forces recaptured Neskuchne (2km south of Velyka Novosilka) on June 5, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation that Russian forces did so.[48] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces attempted to advance near Novodarivka (15km southwest of Velyka Novosilka), Rivnopil (11km southwest of Velyka Novosilka), and Neskuchne and unsuccessfully attempted to seize Russian positions near Pryiutne (17km southwest of Velyka Novosilka) and Levadne (20km southwest of Velyka Novosilka).[49] One milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced 500 to 3,000 meters near Rivnopil and Neskuchne.[50] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces out of Novodarivka either on June 4 or 5, although a prominent milblogger claimed that neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces control the settlement.[51]

www.criticalthreats.org/...

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/5/2173368/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-468-Kyiv-remains-silent-about-its-strategy

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