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Florida State House Districts (2024): HD 36, HD 37, HD 38, HD 39, HD 45 [1]

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Date: 2023-06-05

Today, I am looking at five more Florida house districts: HD 36, HD 37, HD 38, HD 39, and HD 45, all based in Orlando’s northern and western suburbs.

Florida House District 36

FL HD 36 is based in Seminole County and contains the community of Sanford. HD 36 has considerable overlap with the pre-2022 iterations of HD 28 and HD 29, both of which were traditionally Republican-leaning districts that moved heavily to the left in recent years. Specifically, HD 28 had gone from supporting Mitt Romney by a little less than 7 points to supporting Donald Trump by about 3.5 points in 2016 and by a razor-thin margin of 33 votes in 2020. HD 29 was a redder district to begin with, but moved further to the left in 2016, as it went from supporting Romney by over 10 points to supporting Trump by 4 points, and actually became bluer than HD 28 in 2020, as it narrowly supported Biden by less than half a percentage point. At the state house level, HD 28 featured a very close race in 2018 (the first time Democrats had contested the seat), with Republican David Smith winning the open seat by between 2 and 3 points. The 2020 house race was not quite as close (but still competitive), with Smith winning reelection by about 6 points. Interestingly, Democrat Mike Cleland managed to flip HD 29 in 2012, despite the district’s Republican lean, as he defeated incumbent Republican Chris Dorworth by a razor-thin margin, though it should be noted that Dorworth had been subject to ethics complaints. Republican Scott Plakon (who had previously served in the chamber) easily flipped the seat back in 2014 and ran unopposed in 2016. The 2018 and 2020 house races for HD 29 were competitive though, with Plakon winning the former by just 2 points and the latter by just under 4 points. HD 36 is a few points bluer than both HD 28 and HD 29, as Biden would have carried it by just over 4 points. (HD 36 takes in much of the northern parts of 28 and 29, where their Dem bases are located.) However, the Dems were not as successful in the 2022 state house race for HD 36, likely due to poor turnout, with Republican Rachel Plakon (Scott’s wife) winning the open seat by over 9 points. The district should be more competitive this cycle, given that the environment should be stronger for Dems. I’m classifying HD 36 as a Toss Up.

Florida House District 37

FL HD 37 encompasses portions of Seminole County, such as Oviedo, as well as parts of Orange County (home to Orlando), including the University of Central Florida. HD 37 has considerable overlap with the pre-2022 iteration of HD 49, which was a safe district for Democrats, with Barack Obama (in 2012), Hillary Clinton, and Biden all carrying the seat by over 20 points. The state house races were generally not competitive, with Democrat Carlos Guillermo Smith winning reelection by over 28 points in 2018 and by nearly 24 points in 2020, after having first won the seat unopposed in 2016. HD 37 is substantially redder than HD 49, due to the Seminole additions, with Biden’s margin shrinking to about 11.5 points in the former district, which is admittedly still a decent margin. However, Republican Susan Plascencia, sister of former FL house representative Rene Plasencia, was able to flip HD 37 in 2022 (again, likely due to poor Democratic turnout), as she narrowly defeated Smith by just under 4 points. HD 37 should be competitive this cycle and a strong pick-up opportunity for Democrats. I’m tempted to give the Dems an edge here, given Biden’s high margin, but I’m going to cautiously classify the district as a Toss Up, considering that Plasencia will have the advantage of incumbency this time around, unlike in 2022.

Florida House District 38

FL HD 38 is home to communities such as Altamonte Springs and Casselberry in Seminole County. HD 38 overlaps the pre-2022 iterations of HD 28 (discussed in the HD 36 paragraph above) and HD 30, which was traditionally competitive but moved heavily to the left in recent years, going from narrowly supporting Obama by just over 2 points in 2012 to supporting Clinton by a larger margin of over 8 points to supporting Biden by an even larger margin of nearly 14 points. Democrat Joy Goff-Marcil managed to flip HD 30 in 2018, winning by nearly 6 points against incumbent Republican Bob Cortes, who won reelection by just under 7 points in 2016. Goff-Marcil won reelection in 2020 by a similar 6-point margin against Cortes in a rematch. HD 38 is in-between HD 28 and HD 30, partisan-wise, as it would have supported Biden by between 7 and 8 points. The Republicans managed to hold onto HD 38 in 2022, with David Smith (from HD 28) being reelected by a fairly narrow margin of between 4 and 5 points. The Democrats have a good shot at flipping the seat, given the favorable trends and how close it was last cycle. I’m classifying HD 38 as a Toss Up. Sarah Henry, who was the Dem candidate last cycle, is running again.

Florida House District 39

FL HD 39 contains the communities of Winter Garden (located in Orange County) and Wekiwa Springs (located in Seminole County). HD 39 largely overlaps the pre-2022 iterations of HD 45 and HD 31. HD 45 was a safely Dem district, with Biden carrying the seat by over 38 points and Republicans generally not even contesting it at the state house level, while HD 31 was a safely Republican district, with Republican Keith Truenow winning the open seat by over 19 points in 2020 and Trump simultaneously carrying it by a similar margin. Not surprisingly, HD 39 is in-between the two districts, partisan-wise, and is highly competitive, as it would have narrowly supported Biden by between 1 and 2 points. Nonetheless, the 2022 state house race for HD 38 was not all that close, with Republican Doug Bankson winning the open seat by just over 11 points. Bankson should be favored, but it seems reasonable to expect a competitive race this cycle, with the environment looking stronger for Democrats. I’m classifying HD 39 as Lean Republican.

Florida House District 45

FL HD 45 encompasses parts of Orange County, such as the Walt Disneyland Resort and the community of Windermere, as well as parts of Osceola County. HD 45 has considerable overlap with the pre-2022 iteration of HD 44, which swung heavily to the left in recent years, having gone from supporting Romney by just under 8 points to supporting Clinton by about 6 points to supporting Biden by a larger margin of nearly 10 points. HD 45 had been Republican-held until 2018, when Democrat Geraldine Thompson flipped the seat, as she defeated incumbent Republican Bobby Olszewski (who had first won the seat in a 2017 special) by a fairly narrow margin of under 3 points. Thompson was reelected in 2020 by a slightly larger 5-point margin. HD 45 is a few points redder than HD 44, with Biden’s margin shrinking to about 5.5 points in the former district. The 2022 state house race for HD 45 was moderately close, with Republican Carolina Amnesty winning the open seat by between 6 and 7 points. The district should be competitive and a fairly decent pick-up opportunity for Dems. I’m classifying HD 45 as a Toss Up.

Thanks to cnanalysis (for the 2020 pres results of the current districts), and Daily Kos Elections (for the statewide/presidential results of the pre-2022 districts).

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/5/2173375/-Florida-State-House-Districts-2024-HD-36-HD-37-HD-38-HD-39-HD-45

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