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Holiday Weekend Canvass Report for Arizona and Nevada [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2023-06-01
Last weekend was Memorial Day. At all 5 of our canvasses in Arizona, volunteers had agreed to knock on doors last Saturday “to remind Arizonans that Ruben Gallego is a vet.” It is the only state where all of our Saturday canvasses agreed to continue voter contact over the holiday weekend.
I flew into Arizona to attend two of those canvasses. I try to hit at least one each weekend, although sometimes life gets in the way. But i went to Phoenix because volunteers at one of the canvasses there had expressed interest in the “Georgia benediction.” At some of our HBCU-led canvasses in southwest Georgia, organizers like to end their “training” pre-canvass session with the words of Jackson Browne. This practice has taken on a life of its own, another example of the cross-fertilization we are seeing amongst our volunteers.
Hope Springs from Field PAC has built a culture for success in southern Georgia. Part of that is because most of these organizers were not Obama alums but HBCU students and alums. One of them put together a playlist to listen to on their trip up to North Carolina (Hope Springs volunteers and organizers traded GOTV support for their primaries). One song became a benediction for canvassers in Georgia. “Until Justice is Real” started to have real meaning for those Georgians.
At the end of training, canvass volunteers gather in a circle and hold hands. And, seemingly spontaneously, one volunteer would say, “What is democracy?”
A second voice followed, “What is the deal?”
Another one would follow, “What would it look like?”
And another, “How would it feel?” And “Putting your shoulder to the wheel.” Then a sixth voice added, “And staying with it until justice.” In this variation, everyone would conclude, “Until justice is real.”
2024 Senate Battleground Map
This chorus has a specific meaning. The person who started it off had been the volunteer who had the highest number of doors knocked the weekend before. The person who ended it was the volunteer who had talked to the most voters. The top 3 door knockers and top 3 conversants were the individual voices. This “benediction circle” reminds us that we have a purpose out there knocking on doors each Saturday. And our Arizona organizers have been impressing on me that Kyrsten Sinema represents “old Arizona,” they wanted to built a more inclusive, more equitable “New Arizona.” That’s why they were there, knocking on doors a year before the election. They have a purpose. It was more than just winning a Senate seat (or the presidency).
Hope Springs from Field PAC has been canvassing in Arizona since March 11th (and in Nevada since April). Winning Arizona is regarded as more tricky since Kyrsten Sinema changed her party status. Democrats are still at the bottom of the partisan registration pile in Arizona, which means we have to win over more independent voters that Republicans do (assuming that Republicans can retain all their own partisans). But Ruben Gallego has proven to be more resilient than expected, as we have been finding at the doors!
But from the conversations we have been having at their doors, Arizonans have decided that this election, 2024, is all about Donald Trump and Trump would (again) be driving how Arizonans voted next year.
107 volunteers came out to knock on doors in the eastern suburbs of Phoenix and Tucson last Saturday in the Arizona Congressional Districts First, Fourth and Sixth. They knocked on 7,575 doors and talked to 613 voters. 384 of those voters filled out at least part of the Issues Survey.
The Debt Ceiling negotiations was the Number 1 issue for the Arizonans we talked to Saturday (again). Recession Worries, which is clearly tied to the game of chicken Republicans are playing with the Debt Ceiling, was the #2 issue concern. Crime was the third most frequently raised issue on Saturday.
Biden Approval was down slightly among the Arizonans we talked to on Saturday at 51%; 12% expressed some measure of Disapproval (also down slightly). 8% of the voters who responded Approved of the job Sen. Sinema was doing while 38% expressed Disapproval. We ask ask about whether voters Approve of likely Democratic nominee Ruben Gallego. 50% of the voters we talked to had a positive impression of the Congressman. (We are not asking about disapproval of the Congressman yet.)
Governor Hobbs was the big mover last weekend. 56% of the voters we talked to thought Hobbs was doing a good job, 6% said they disapproved of the job she was doing. Because some of our volunteers want to compare Sinema disapproval numbers to Rep. Ruben Gallego’s approval numbers, we include it here (as we will each week).
Volunteers registered 49 voters who updated their addresses (or updated their voter registration to participate in the Active Early Voting List — the latter skews the number higher). We did not register any new voters last weekend. In Arizona, we had 43 voters fill out Constituent Service Request forms. We send completed CSRs to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors since March in a grassroots effort to prepare the 2024 Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First and Second Rounds of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are canvassing Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel
Hope Springs from Field PAC understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.
56 volunteers turned up to knock on doors in the southern suburbs of Las Vegas. They knocked on 3,830 doors and talked to 328 voters. 206 of those voters answered at least some of our questions on the Issues Survey.
The Top 3 Issues canvassers found in Nevada last weekend were Jobs, the Economy was Second and the Debt Ceiling was Third.
Biden’s Approval numbers among the Nevadans we talked to was at 51% last Saturday, with a Disapproval number of 15%. Senator Rosen had an Approval rating of 57% with 8% of the voters we talked to on Saturday expressing Disapproval. Approval of Governor Lombardo was 31% and Disapproval was 40% last Saturday. (Lombardo had previously been the Clark County Sheriff so he is better known in the Vegas area.)
Volunteers re-registered 18 voters. No new voters were registered last weekend in Nevada. 6 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms. These are passed along to Democratic office holders, when possible, but to the appropriate office, if not.
We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters. We do our best to weed out Republican households but we are including mixed households this year, after our successful efforts to win over Republican voters in mixed households in the Georgia Runoff.
At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter.
But the main focus of our canvassing right now is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. We find that most voters who aren’t in a hurry or in the middle of something are willing to answer at least a couple of these questions, especially their top issue or concern and their views of President Biden. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as Congressional Districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022). There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with these really, really onerous provisions, Hope Springs from Field PAC seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them.
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/fistfulofsteel
Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!
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https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/1/2172629/-AZ-NV
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