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Ukraine Invasion Day 461: more Ground-Based Air Defense [1]

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Date: 2023-05-29

Russian forces conducted another series of strikes against Ukraine with cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones overnight on May 28 to 29 and during the day on May 29.

Ukrainian 🇺🇦 Air Defenses shot down 37 of the 40 Russian X-101/Kh-555 Cruise Missiles, and 29 of the 35 Iranian Shahed-136 Kamikaze Drones launched at Ukrainian Cities overnight 92% of all Russian Cruise Missiles, and 82% of all Kamikaze Drones were intercepted early on May 29th pic.twitter.com/8NxCntHCpX

The Danish prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, said that her government planned to increase spending on military aid to Ukraine by $2.6bn over this year and next year. Earlier this year, Denmark set up a $1b fund for military, civilian and business aid to Ukraine. Danmarks Radio, the Danish public-service broadcaster, reported that the new funds were earmarked for military aid.

Polish president, Andrzej Duda, said that he would sign a bill to allow a panel to investigate whether the opposition party Civic Platform (PO) allowed the country to be unduly influenced by Russia and as a result become too dependent on its fuel when it was in power. The PO party rejects the claims and says the law is designed to destroy support for the party in the lead up to the elections being held at the end of the year.

Russia’s interior ministry has put US senator Lindsey Graham on a wanted list after the Investigative Committee said it was opening a criminal probe into his comments on a Ukrainian state video. In an edited video released by the Ukrainian president’s office of Graham’s meeting with Zelenskiy in Kyiv on Friday, Graham was shown saying “the Russians are dying” and then saying US support was the “best money we’ve ever spent”. Russia said Graham should say publicly if he believes his words were taken out of context in the video edit.

Two people were killed and eight were wounded in a Russian attack on the city of Toretsk on Monday morning, Pavlo Kyrylenko, the governor of the Donetsk region, said. Kyrylenko said Russian forces had used high-explosive aerial bombs in the attack at about 11:30 am local time which damaged a gas station and a multi-storey building in the city.

US president Joe Biden said that in a call on Monday, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan repeated Ankara’s desire to buy F-16 fighter jets from the United States, while Biden responded that Washington was keen to see Ankara drop its objection to Sweden’s joining Nato. The exchange took place when Biden called Erdogan to congratulate him on his victory in Turkey’s presidential election on Sunday.

Any peace settlement acceptable to Ukraine would include a demilitarised zone extending between 100km and 120km into Russia, the adviser to the head of the office of Ukraine’s president, Mykhailo Podolyak, has suggested. The key topic of the postwar settlement should be the establishment of safeguards to prevent a recurrence of aggression in the future, he said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday that using US-provided Patriot anti-missile systems ensured a 100% interception rate and would play a role in pushing forward against Russia’s invasion. “When Patriots in the hands of Ukrainians ensure a 100% interception rate of any Russian missile, terror will be defeated,” Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address.

Eleven Russian missiles aimed at Kyiv were shot down by the Ukrainian air defence on Monday morning . One person was hospitalised as a result of the attacks. The local authority reported that the roof of a two-story building caught fire in the district as a result of falling debris, but that the fire was contained.

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line on May 29. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Masyutivka (13km northeast of Kupyansk) and did not conduct offensive operations in the Kreminna area. [27] Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian forces continue to repel all Russian attempted advances near Novoselivske (15km northwest of Svatove), Torske (14km west of Kreminna), Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna), and Spirne (25km south of Kreminna). [28] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced from Masyutivka, although ISW has still not seen visual confirmation of these advances nor confirmation that Russian forces control Masyutivka. [29] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced toward Bilohorivka from the northeast and are trying to encircle Ukrainian forces in the area. [30] ISW has not seen visual confirmation supporting a Russian advance near Bilohorivka. A pro-Kremlin milblogger claimed that Russian forces are preparing offensive operations to capture Siversk (17km southwest of Kreminna). [31] The Kreminna area is one of the few areas along the front line where Russian forces continue routine offensive operations, and Russian forces may be concentrating offensive capabilities in this area to set conditions for a potential offensive toward Siversk. A Russian milblogger claimed on May 8 that unspecified Russian airborne units and a Don Cossack special unit are operating in the Serebrianske forest area (10km south of Kreminna) and that Chechen Akhmat and 2nd Luhansk People’s Republic Army Corps elements are operating near Zolotarivka (16km south of Kreminna). [32]

www.understandingwar.org/...

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

The tempo of Russian offensive operations in and around Bakhmut remains notably low as of May 29. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations northeast of Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northeast of Bakhmut) and in the direction of Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut). [35] The Ukrainian General Staff reported in its later situational report for May 29 that Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction. [36] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Russian forces are decreasing the tempo of their operations in the Bakhmut area amidst the ongoing Russian relief-in-place operation. [37] Malyar stated that Russian regular formations are continuing to assume control of Wagner’s positions in Bakhmut City itself as well as on the flanks around the city. [38] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) confirmed on May 29 that elements of the 106th Guards Airborne Division are operating on the northern flanks of Bakhmut, likely in connection with the ongoing relief-in-place operation. [39] Malyar stated that Ukrainian forces retain positions on the southwestern outskirts of Bakhmut City and that Ukrainian forces did not attempt to advance in the Bakhmut area on May 28 and 29 in order to prioritize other unspecified tasks. [40] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces made unspecified gains in the direction of Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut), and that Russian forces attacked near Khromove (immediately west of Bakhmut). [41]

www.understandingwar.org/...

Soldiers of Ukrainian Aidar Battalion assaulted Russian positions north-west of Klishchiivka. (source)

Russian artillery targeted Ukrainian positions north-west of Klishchiivka, indicating the assault of Aidar Battalion was successful, and Ukrainian troops advanced towards the settlement. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of: Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Ivanivske militaryland.net/...

ISW’s new retrospective analysis on the Battle for Bakhmut.

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian forces continued defensive operations in southern Ukraine on May 29. Ukrainian Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported that Russian forces continue to construct trenches on the outskirts of Melitopol in Zaporizhia Oblast that are large enough to accommodate “equipment and mass graves.” [50] Fedorov also reported that Russian forces are concealing equipment and manpower in the Bohatyr forest area near Melitopol but also using the trees to build fortifications. [51] ISW has previously reported on Russian forces building fortifications near Melitopol. [52]

www.understandingwar.org/...

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/29/2172064/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-461-more-Ground-Based-Air-Defense

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