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Central Asia is not Putin's only loss [1]

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Date: 2023-05-24

Iliya Kusa, Foreign policy analyst at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future

May 23, 202

On May 19-20, China held a summit between themselves and the Central Asian countries in the city of Xi'an. Xi Jinping received each leader of the Central Asian republics during his state visit personally. ...the priority remained in the economic and financial spheres, in which the PRC has achieved significant success over the past 15 years, displacing Russia…

Russian PM arrives in China for business forum, talks with Xi

Source: AFP, Al Jazeera

23 May 2023

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin is in China for a visit in which he will meet President Xi Jinping and sign a series of deals on infrastructure and trade. He will take part in a Russian-Chinese Business Forum… That forum has invited a number of sanctioned Russian tycoons — including from the key fertiliser, steel and mining sectors — as well as Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who handles energy issues, according to Bloomberg News.

When Xi visited Russia in March, he made a point of inviting Russian Prime Minister Mishustin to China for continued talks on China-Russia trade opportunities. Putin was invited to attend an upcoming Chinese cultural celebration. He announced the recently completed Central Asia Summit the same week after visiting Putin without inviting him, as a matter of fact the meeting was billed as the C5+China.

Politics being an accumulation of subtleties and nuance, the message seems to be Russia will play a major role in China’s future plans for the region, Putin not so much. Xi’s personal involvement in the Iran-Saudi Arabia reconciliation, the marathon trade negotiations with many of the Global South countries, Brazil being the most notable, and now the Central Asia Summit indicates that he is committed to claiming the “once every 100 years opportunity” for China.

This Mishustin trip marks the second-high level meeting for him and China’s ruling dignitaries. Li Quang, Premier of the People's Republic of China, met Mishustin in Russia shortly after Xi’s March visit. On this trip, Mishustin is being accompanied by several high level businessmen and Russian Oligarchs. They will most likely leave with Xi having heaped hi praise on Mishustin and several much desired trade agreements. It appears Xi Jinping is grooming Mishustin as Putin’s replacement and is using these meetings to diminish Putin and raise Mishustin’s statue at home.

I vacillate between will he, or will he not, support Ukraine’s demand that Russia withdraw from it’s 1991 borders before peace negotiation can begin. These moves make me hopeful that China will support the restoration of Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders as a condition for ending the hostilities there.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/24/2171031/-Central-Asia-is-not-Putin-s-only-loss

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