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Ukraine Invasion Day 455: no Bakhmut, no problem [1]

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Date: 2023-05-23

Russian authorities ended the “counterterrorism” operation in Belgorod Oblast and claimed to have defeated the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and the Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) in the region on May 23.

The Russian information space largely hyperfixated on speculated goals for the raids and on the conduct of the Russian response. Some Russian milbloggers amplified claims that a drone struck the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) building in Belgorod City and speculated that Ukrainian forces aimed to attack the FSB and Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) in the raid. [15] Russian sources also amplified a photograph of Colonel General Alexander Lapin posing with a captured vehicle and claimed that Lapin led the counterterrorism operation alongside elements of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division (20th Guards Combined Arms Army, Western Military District). [16] Many Russian sources praised Lapin for organizing Russian forces to conduct coherent counterterrorism operations after the Russian Border Service failed to repel the raids. [17] Some sources criticized the decision to give Lapin command and noted Lapin’s prior military failures such as the disastrous Siverskyi Donets river crossing near Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast in May 2022. [18] Lapin has notably returned to commanding Russian operations in eastern Ukraine after suffering intense criticism for commanding the operations to take Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, and Lapin has not received much praise in the information space since the campaign to undermine him led to Lapin’s dismissal in November 2022. [19] The openness of Russian milbloggers to praise Lapin for commanding the defense against an extremely small and limited border incursion suggests that at least some milblogger factions are amenable to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s tendency to rotate old and disgraced commanders. [20] The Russian reaction to the raid in the information space and in the reported military activities appears to be a highly disproportionate response to a very small and localized undertaking. Russian forces should not have required significant reinforcements—or the involvement of a colonel general—to repulse a raid conducted by reportedly 13 armored vehicles. [21]

Two Weeks at the Front in Ukraine | The New Yorker https://t.co/hmVpu4M6pP

President Volodomyr Zelensky of Ukraine received vows of resolute support and promises of further weapons shipments from the leaders of the world’s major industrial democracies.

In a sharp reversal , President Biden told allies that he would allow Ukrainian pilots to be trained on American-made F-16s , and is prepared to approve other countries’ transferring the jets to Ukraine.

Russia’s claim of victory in the eastern Ukrainian city suggests that the deadliest battle of the war might be over. But what comes next is far from clear, and experts

⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - MAY 23 64:47 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 added by @Rebel44CZ 🇨🇿 (65:51 after removal of duplicates and/or corrections) VISUALLY CONFIRMED: 3.0x losses to date ➡ 2.3x since 🇺🇦 counteroffensive (Aug 29) ➡ 1.6x 30-day average ⬇ 📈 https://t.co/gXcYd5TFc0 pic.twitter.com/Q4ipQzPaEq

During the 5-month period between Dec. 2, 2022 & May 2, 2023, #Russian forces captured about 870 sq km (336 sq mi) of territory in eastern #Ukraine , according to estimates provided to @thisisinsider by ISW. That's roughly 0.1% of the country. @TheStudyofWar pic.twitter.com/ZC8dw0wQh5

How to Keep a Drone Alive: a thread. While the loss rate of UAVs in Ukraine - on both sides - is very high, it doesn’t have to be this way. Making UAVs survivable, however, comes with some trade-offs and support requirements. 1/20 pic.twitter.com/yjOaJXLg0s

⚡️"Today we demilitarized a motorized rifle company of the Armed Forces of the russian federation, destroyed several units of their armored vehicles", – Legion "Freedom of Russia". 👉 Follow @Flash_news_ua pic.twitter.com/wTwRJtRPk7

x The rashists shelled Kam'yanka, Krasne Pershe, Novomlyns'k, Dvorichna, Masyutivka, Mala Shapkivka, Kindrashivka, Kup'yans'k, Tabayivka and Berestove in Kharkiv region; Stel'makhivka, Nevs'ke and Bilohorivka in Luhansk region; and Tors'ke and Spirne in Donetsk region.



2/3 pic.twitter.com/CX3sKcbhy9 — Michael MacKay (@mhmck) May 24, 2023

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line on May 23. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Masyutivka (13km northeast of Kupyansk) and Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna). [28] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces gained new positions near Nevske (18km northwest of Kreminna), although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim. [29] Video footage published on May 23 purportedly shows unspecified airborne units operating in the forests near Kreminna. [30]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on May 23. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near Avdiivka, 13km north of Avdiivka near Novokalynove, and within 14km west of Avdiivka near Sieverne, Vodyane, and Pervomaiske. [31] Ukrainian forces also reportedly repelled numerous assaults on Marinka (about 24km southwest of Donetsk City). [32] Ukrainian Defense Forces Tavriisk Direction Spokesperson Valeriy Shereshen stated that Russian forces are concentrating their efforts on attacking Avdiivka and Marinka, and reported that there were 19 combat clashes in the two areas. [33] A Russian source claimed that Russian forces conducted assault operations near Pervomaiske, on the southwestern approached to Avdiivka, in Marinka, and in the Krasnohorivka direction (approximately 20km west of Donetsk City). [34] Geolocated footage published on May 23 showed elements of the 287th Separate Rifle Battalion of the 1st Army Corps operating south of Avdiivka. [35]

www.understandingwar.org/...

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian forces continued defensive operations in southern Ukraine ahead of the planned Ukrainian counteroffensive. Ukrainian Defense Forces Tavriisk Direction Spokesperson Valeriy Shershen reported on May 23 that Russian forces are conducting defensive operations in the Novopavlivka and Orikhiv directions in Zaporizhia Oblast. [37] Shershen also stated that Russian forces are actively mining the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River and installing barricades against boats and watercraft. [38] Geolocated footage showed that Russian forces constructed new fortifications in Crimea along the roads that lead into the peninsula. [39]

Russian forces continue to target Ukrainian positions in southern Ukraine. Geolocated footage published on May 23 shows artillery elements of the 177th Naval Infantry Regiment of the Caspian Sea Flotilla operating near Dorozhnyanka in Zaporizhia Oblast. [40] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) published footage purportedly showing unspecified airborne units striking Ukrainian armored vehicles on the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River. [41]

www.understandingwar.org/...

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/23/2170900/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-455-no-Bakhmut-no-problem

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