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Billions will be pushed out of their climate niche by 2030 from rising temperatures. [1]

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Date: 2023-05-23

Above average temperatures everywhere 2023-2027

“It would be some consolation for the feebleness of our selves and our works if all things should perish as slowly as they come into being; but as it is, increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid.” Stoic philosopher Lucius Annaeus Seneca

Six hundred million people in Nigeria and India already have hot enough temperatures to push them out of their climate niche. That niche can be described as the Goldilocks zone, where temperatures are not too cold or hot and not too dry or wet for humans and wildlife to survive. But the rest of the planet will not escape warming’s unprecedented temperatures as the climate humanity evolved in continues to unravel due to the burning of fossil fuels creating hothouse earth on our watch.

Professor Tim Lenton is a professor, Director of the Global Systems Institute, and Chair of Climate Change and Earth System Science at the University of Exeter. He led the research focused on the human element of global warming rather than the hit to the global economy or collapse, if you prefer a more succinct word to describe the near-term future, we will undoubtedly face.

With current climate plans (which need to be implemented, but that is not happening, at least not at the scale required), the temperature will rise to 2.7 Celsius, almost five degrees Fahrenheit above the pre-industrial baseline established by the Paris Climate Accords.

“Economic estimates almost always value the rich more than the poor, because they have more assets to lose, and they tend to value those alive now over those living in the future. We’re considering all people as equal in this study.”

The 2.7 C temperature rise will mean two billion people will experience average annual temperatures of 29 C or 85 degrees Fahrenheit. The world's habitable zones will be tested.

The article published in The Guardian notes that if we get to work and hold temperatures to 1.5 degrees, only 700 million will experience temperatures hot enough to force migration. This year, we will likely pass 1.5 C with hotter oceans and El Nino. But holding that temperature to even that unsafe rise will never happen. A 2.7 C rise will probably not be within our grasp as CO2, Methane, and other greenhouse gas concentrations are skyrocketing. The damage to the biosphere is always worse than what we are told.

Damien Carrington writes in The Guardian:

“Economic estimates almost always value the rich more than the poor, because they have more assets to lose, and they tend to value those alive now over those living in the future. We’re considering all people as equal in this study.” Prof Chi Xu, at Nanjing University in China, and also part of the research team, said: “Such high temperatures [outside the niche] have been linked to issues including increased mortality, decreased labour productivity, decreased cognitive performance, impaired learning, adverse pregnancy outcomes, decreased crop yield, increased conflict and infectious disease spread.” Prof Marten Scheffer at Wageningen University, the Netherlands, and a senior author of the study, said those pushed outside the climate niche might consider migrating to cooler places: “Not just migration of tens of millions of people but it might be a billion or so.” The idea of climate niches for wild animals and plants is well established but the new study, published in the journal Nature Sustainability, identified the climate conditions in which human societies have thrived. snip There are 60 million people living outside the niche and exposed to dangerous heat, the researchers said. But with each rise of 0.1C in global temperature above the 1.2C of human-caused global heating already seen today, an extra 140 million people are driven outside the niche.

In the modeled worst-case scenario of a 3.6 C rise, half of the world population will be outside a survivable climate niche.

James E Hansen wrote a bone-chilling email:

Global Warming in the Pipeline 19 May 2023 James Hansen Sorry to be slow in revising “Global Warming in the Pipeline.” It became apparent that looking at the whole Cenozoic era (past 66 million years) allowed the most persuasive case of where the planet is headed with today’s human-made climate forcings. With the help of Makiko Sato and Isabelle Sangha, I added a section on the Cenozoic, now perhaps the most informative part of the paper. For example, the present greenhouse gas forcing is 70% of the forcing that made Earth’s temperature in the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum at least +13°C relative to preindustrial temperature. snip The Cenozoic analysis is simple. The essential assumption is that there are 60 m of sea level in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets between today and an ice-free planet and an additional 120 m of sea level between today and the last glacial maximum. Sea level change is assumed to be linear in the oxygen isotope δ18O between today and either of those two states. Temperatures and sea level deduced from ocean core δ18O agree well with available independent data (Figs. 9 and S6). The draft paper is available here. We will resume monthly communications on global temperature next month and deal with a backlog of other communications. From what I understand, a 13C temperature rise will not be witnessed by anyone currently alive. Climate change will abruptly push species over their tipping points

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/23/2170699/-Billions-will-be-pushed-out-of-their-climate-niche-by-2030-from-rising-temperatures

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