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Ukraine Invasion Day 454: Belgorod region attacked by Russian anti-government insurgents [1]
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Date: 2023-05-22
Wagner Group mercenaries have likely secured the western administrative borders of Bakhmut, but at the cost of depleting their capabilities for future military actions, the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest assessment on May 21. “Russian forces will likely need additional reinforcements to hold Bakhmut City and its flanks at the expense of operations in other directions,” the think tank said.
A senior Russian lawmaker who was reportedly critical of the invasion of Ukraine died over the weekend, the Russian government confirmed, in the latest unexpected fatality of a prominent figure since the war began.
In a statement, Russia’s Ministry of Science and Higher Education confirmed that Deputy Science Minister Pyotr Kucherenko, 46, died on Saturday. The ministry said he “became ill” while on board a plane carrying Russian delegates home after a business trip to Cuba. The flight made an emergency landing in southern Russia but doctors couldn’t save him, the ministry added. [...] Kucherenko’s untimely demise is one of many unexpected, high-profile deaths across Russia since the invasion started last year. Russian military officials, energy executives, and outspoken war critics have all died in mysterious circumstances over the course of the first year of the war. In February, a military bureaucrat who criticized the Kremlin for losses in Ukraine fell 16 floors to her death in St. Petersburg. www.thedailybeast.com/... x This really looks like a sanctioned murder by the Kremlin. According to some reports he was critical of the fascist invasion and allegedly had his passport confiscated land he wasn’t able to leave Russia except w this Russian delegation — Olga Lautman 🇺🇦 (@OlgaNYC1211) May 22, 2023
x This morning blue check accounts accounts claimed large explosions at the Pentagon.
.. then the White House.
Russian state media amplified the faked Pentagon image from their gold check account.
The images look AI generated, as folks identified. 1/ pic.twitter.com/Bd9uu3jwPZ — John Scott-Railton (@jsrailton) May 22, 2023
who profited from this
x A falsified photograph of an explosion near the Pentagon spread widely on social media Monday morning, briefly sending US stocks lower
https://t.co/gTMJ4iMOr0 — Bloomberg (@business) May 22, 2023
Today the Belgorod region (now called BPR) was attacked by Russian anti-government units of the Russian Volunteer Corps and Freedom Legion of Russia. The Russian information space responded with a similar degree of panic, factionalism, and incoherency as it tends to display when it experiences significant informational shocks. Some milbloggers fixated on the fact that the RDK and LSR are comprised of mostly Russians and labeled them traitors to Russia, baselessly accusing them of working under the GUR.[Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR)] understandingwar.org/... Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted a raid into Belgorod Oblast on May 22. Russian sources began reporting on the morning of May 22 that a detachment of the RDK and LSR consisting of two tanks, an armored personnel carrier, and nine other armored vehicles crossed the international border and captured Kozinka, a settlement in the Grayvoron region of Belgorod Oblast within 600 meters of the border with Sumy Oblast.[1] Several Russian sources claimed that the grouping then captured the settlements of Glotovo and Gora Podol (3km and 5km from the border, respectively), although some milbloggers disputed claims that the attack completely captured Glotovo or Gora Podol, instead reporting that RDK forces only got to the Glotovo House of Culture.[2] ISW has not yet observed geolocated confirmation that the RDK or LSR reached Glotovo or Gora Podol. Geolocated footage posted on May 22 does confirm that the RDK struck a border post near Kozinka before crossing the border with at least one tank.[3] The RDK also posted footage reportedly showing the body of a Russian border guard in a border station, likely from the border crossing near Kozinka.[4] Russian milbloggers later claimed that Russian troops retook control of all three settlements.[5] Some Russian sources additionally reported that Russian forces repelled pro-Ukrainian sabotage groups near Dronovka, about 22km northwest of Kozinka.[6] The RDK additionally posted footage reportedly outside two settlements near the border area in Bryansk Oblast, but the nature of this incursion is unclear and ISW has not observed additional evidence or discourse surrounding actions in Bryansk Oblast on May 22.[7] understandingwar.org/... x I'm beginning to suspect Russian revolutionary units were activated inside the Belgorod region and are assisting the Russian Freedom Legion / Russian Volunteer Corps who crossed the border from Ukraine. Operations throughout Belgorod region are still ongoing into deep night.
https://t.co/XfR9p2LZD6 — Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) May 22, 2023 RIGA, Latvia — The Kremlin on Thursday blamed Ukraine for an attack in two villages in the Bryansk region of western Russia, in which President Vladimir Putin said assailants had “opened fire on civilians” and the Bryansk governor said two people were killed and hostages were taken. An aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky denied that Kyiv was involved in the incident, which Putin called a “terrorist attack.” Details of the incident were extremely sketchy, and, in an age of ubiquitous cellphone videos, no footage or photos of an attack were circulating on social media, even hours afterward. Russia’s Federal Security Service, the FSB, initially issued a statement saying that “measures are being taken to eliminate armed Ukrainian nationalists who violated the state border.” But two fighters claiming to be members of a far-right Russian anti-Putin nationalist group fighting on Ukraine’s side in the war claimed responsibility, declaring “Death to the Kremlin tyrant” in a video filmed outside a medical clinic in the village of Lyuberchane, near Bryansk, close to the Ukrainian border. The group calls itself the Russian Volunteer Corps. x The Military Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine has stated they have Observed the “Rushed” Movement of Nuclear Munitions and Weapons by the Russian Military from the Belgorod-22 Storage Site near where Heavy Fighting is ongoing in the Town of Grayvoron. pic.twitter.com/WlSPgafA78 — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) May 22, 2023
“You have to understand, there is nothing,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a G7 summit hosted in Hiroshima, Japan, on Sunday. “They destroyed everything,” the Ukrainian leader added. “There are no buildings. It’s a pity, it’s a tragedy, but for today, Bakhmut is only in our hearts. There is nothing on this space, just ground and a lot of dead Russians.” www.nationalreview.com/... x x YouTube Video
Russian electronic warfare (EW) remains potent, with an approximate distribution of at least one major system covering each 10 km of front. These systems are heavily weighted towards the defeat of UAVs and tend not to try and deconflict their effects. Ukrainian UAV losses remain at approximately 10,000 per month. Russian EW is also apparently achieving real time interception and decryption of Ukrainian Motorola 256-bit encrypted tactical communications systems, which are widely employed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Russian air defences have also seen a significant increase in their effectiveness now that they are set up around known, and fairly static, locations and are properly connected. Although Russia has persistently struggled to respond to emerging threats, over time it has adapted. Russian air defences are now assessed by the Ukrainian military to be intercepting a proportion of GMLRS strikes as Russian point defences are directly connected to superior radar. [...] An overview of Russian adaptation reveals a force that is able to improve and evolve its employment of key systems. There is evidence of a centralised process for identifying shortcomings in employment and the development of mitigations. Nevertheless, much of this adaptation is reactive and is aimed at making up for serious deficiencies in Russian units. The result is a structure that becomes better over time at managing the problems it immediately faces, but also one that struggles to anticipate new threats. The conclusion therefore is that the Russian Armed Forces pose a significant challenge for the Ukrainian military on the defence. Nevertheless, if Ukraine can disrupt Russian defences and impose a dynamic situation on them, Russian units are likely to rapidly lose their coordination. Changes in the air combat environment, for example, have led rapidly to incidents of Russian fratricide. rusi.org/...
For decades, Russia amassed the bulk of its advanced military forces in the so-called Western Military District, hunkered down on NATO’s borders, including near the Baltic States. Now, many of those forces have been thrown into the meat grinder in Ukraine, where Russia’s army has suffered devastating losses that could take decades to rebuild. But even as the war drags on in Ukraine, Russia plans to rebuild its forces facing its new and expanded frontiers with NATO, according to interviews with multiple Eastern European defense and military officials. Officials in Washington may be sanguine about the longer-term threat from a Russia that has sowed Ukrainian fields with conscript bodies, but in Eastern Europe, and especially the Baltics, things still look dicey. Russia could fully reconstitute the number of troops facing the Baltic countries in a matter of two months to two years, these officials said, posing a new threat of a Russia-NATO military showdown even if the conflict in Ukraine isn’t resolved. Even if the troops and equipment won’t be of the same quality as those deployed to the region before the war, dn into NATO territory—making units like the French combined arms squadron all the more significant for their deterrence value. foreignpolicy.com/...
There were 25 clashes between Ukrainian and Russian forces along the front line on May 22, including Bakhmut, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported in its evening update.
x ⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - MAY 22
17:2 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 added by @Rebel44CZ 🇨🇿
VISUALLY CONFIRMED:
3.0x losses to date ➡
2.3x since 🇺🇦 counteroffensive (Aug 29) ➡
1.6x 30-day average ➡
📈
https://t.co/o69YN09xSE pic.twitter.com/FQRODMKb3e — Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦
[email protected] (@ragnarbjartur) May 22, 2023
Russia carried out an overnight air attack on the southeastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro, officials said. The Ukrainian army said 16 missiles and 20 attack drones had targeted its troops and the city's infrastructure. Local governor Serhiy Lysak said on Telegram that eight people were injured and that three of them were being treated in the hospital. "Thanks to the defense forces, we withstood the attack. Details will come in due time," Lysak said, referring to Russian forces as "terrorists." RBC-Ukraine news agency reported that around 15 blasts were heard during more than 90 minutes of air raid alerts. But it wasn't clear if the sounds were air defense systems destroying targets or Russian missiles or drones hitting their targets. With a Ukrainian counteroffensive looming, Russia has resumed missile and drone strikes this month after a nearly two-month lull. Waves of attacks now come several times a week, the most intense of the war. www.dw.com/... understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) Russian forces continued limited ground attacks in the Kupyansk direction on May 22. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions towards Masyutivka (13km northeast of Kupyansk).[38] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that units of the Western Group of Forces stopped three Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups about 20km southeast of Kupyansk near Tymivka, Kyslivka, and Ivanivka.[39] A Russian milblogger warned that Ukrainian forces may be preparing to attack positions of the Western Military District (WMD)’s 1st Guards Tank Army and 6th Combined Arms Army on this sector of the front.[40] understandingwar.org/... understandingwar.org/... Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) See topline text on Bakhmut. Russian forces made marginal gains in the Avdiivka area as of May 22. Geolocated footage published on May 21 shows that Russian forces made marginal territorial gains southwest of Pervomaiske (11km southwest of Avdiivka).[43] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Novokalynove (7km north of Avdiivka), Vodyane (6km southweset of Avdiivka), and Marinka (18km west of Donetsk City).[44] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces also attacked near Sieverne (7km west of Avdiivka) and Novomykhailivka (10km southwest of Donetsk City).[45] Ukrainian Donetsk Oblast Head Pavlo Kyrylenko reported that Russian forces shelled Avdiivka with cluster munitions.[46] One Russian milblogger expressed concern that Ukrainian forces are concentrating armor for an offensive effort from Avdiivka against Donetsk City, but another milblogger claimed that the alleged armor buildup is insufficient for such an effort.[47] understandingwar.org/... understandingwar.org/... Bakhmut, which Russia triumphantly claimed on Sunday to have captured, is a ruined city that has taken on outsize importance in the war. While Ukrainian officials have denied the Russian claims to completely control the eastern city, they concede that Moscow’s fighters hold nearly all of Bakhmut after almost a year of ferocious shelling, near-suicidal ground assaults and house-to-house urban combat. Many military analysts have suggested that Bakhmut would have more symbolic than strategic value for Russia. Although control of the city does not guarantee that Moscow can make further advances, it would represent Russia’s first major battlefield victory in Ukraine since last summer. www.nytimes.com/... The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was switched to standby, a Russia-installed local official in the Moscow-controlled part of the region said. Vladimir Rogov said the plant was "completely" disconnected from the external power supply after Ukraine disconnected a power line it controls. Ukraine's nuclear agency Energoatom accused Russia of carrying out an attack that caused the power cut. The agency said the shelling caused the seventh instance of the plant entering "blackout mode" since Moscow's troops took control in March 2022. Anatoliy Kurtev, Zaporizhzhia city council's secretary in Ukraine, said that work was ongoing since early Monday to restore power to the city. On several occasions, the Zaporizhzhia power plant has been the center of intense fighting between Russian and Ukrainian fighters, causing concern from international nuclear experts who feared a potential accident at the facility. www.dw.com/...
The F-16, although currently being replaced by the newer fifth generation F-35, has for decades been the primary fighter fielded across much of NATO as well as by key American allies beyond Europe such as South Korea and Israel, and is considered the most suitable Western fighter for Ukraine due to the sheer numbers in which it is available as well as its lower operational costs and maintenance needs than alternatives like the Eurofighter or F-18. [...] Not only is there a possibility that the fighter or its technologies could fall into Russian hands, as other Western equipment has in considerable quantities, but there is also a much greater chance that the fighters could suffer significant losses both to strikes on their airfields and in air to air combat which would be a major blow to the F-16’s reputation. militarywatchmagazine.com/...
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