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A decade of steadily declining murder rates worldwide, except in the USA and Latin America [1]
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Date: 2023-05-22
Intentional homicide rates for nine countries and the OECD over the last 16 years. Source: World Bank Development Indicators 2023
Most nations have succeeded admirably over the last decade in dramatically reducing murder rates. There are, however, notable failures.
That’s according to World Bank data released last week showing rates of intentional homicides for 2021. (Yes, there is a bit of a lag. But getting accurate data from 104 countries takes time and diligence; 126 if we include countries with data up to 2020.)
World’s safest places
The safest countries from deliberate murders are Japan, Slovenia, Ireland, the Czech Republic and Switzerland. That’s among developed OECD member countries. See blue chart, below.
Among OECD members, twenty now have murder rates below one per 100,000. Not bad. That compares with 15 ten years ago, and five thirty years ago. Another 12 now have rates between one and three per 100,000. The world is getting safer.
Danger – do not approach
OECD countries with the highest murder rates are, in order, Mexico (28.2), Colombia (27.5), Costa Rica (11.4), United States (6.8) and Chile (3.6). Yes, all in the Americas. Canada (2.1) fares much better, but still ranks a lowly 30th on the table.
Countries outside the OECD with disturbingly frequent killings include Argentina (4.6), Paraguay (7.8), Uruguay (8.9), Ecuador (14.0), El Salvador (18.2), Brazil (22.4), Honduras (38.3) and Jamaica (52.1). All Latin American.
Elsewhere, high murder rate countries include the Philippines (4.3), Russia (6.8), Myanmar (28.4) and South Africa (41.9).
Trends over time
A benefit of the World Bank’s data base is that it shows rates going back to 1990. This enables us to observe trends over time. Of particular interest is progress over the last decade, as this reflects the efficacy of current crime reduction measures.
One surprise here is Colombia, which fared second worst in the blue graph, above, yet fares best of all OECD members on reduction over the decade. See green graph, below.
Colombia certainly looks a dangerous place with the 2021 rate at 27.5. But that’s a great improvement on 35.6 in 2011.
Other countries to have achieved substantial reductions in murder rates include European nations Lithuania, Estonia, Norway and Greece.
The USA’s surge in violence continues
Starting the 1980s, the USA experienced a steady decline in most categories of personal violence, including murders. America’s homicide rate declined from 9.5 per 100,000 citizens in 1990 to 5.5 in 2000 and reached an all-time low of 4.4 in 2014. Then came Donald Trump and the MAGA movement.
All categories of personal violence have increased in most years since 2015, with some fluctuations. The increase in the homicide rate since 2011 has been the highest of all major nations, as shown in the green graph, above – up from 4.7 per 100,000 in 2011 to 6.8 in 2021.
The Turnbull thesis
The latest World Bank data bolsters the proposition – articulated by former Australian conservative prime minister Malcolm Turnbull – that the surge in violence since 2015 is attributable to the pact between Donald Trump and Fox News which spread fear, anger and hatred across the nation.
There has been something of a parting of the ways between some Fox anchors and the former president since July last year. This had not taken place by 2021, however, so we would expect homicides, along with all other preventable categories of personal violence, to remain at the high levels reached since Trump’s ascendancy.
We can now expand the 16-year chart comparing homicide rates for selected countries which was first published in April when we last discussed the Turnbull thesis. See grey and green chart at the top of this diary.
Most lines continued their downward trajectories in 2021, or remained flat. Israel and the USA moved upwards. If the Turnbull thesis is correct, the bright red line on the above chart will plateau and then resume its downward trajectory when Donald Trump disappears and Fox News loses its malignant influence.
The world is watching.
*
This is an abbreviated version of an article published today in Independent Australia. The original article is available here in full for free:
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/a-decade-of-declining-violence-worldwide-except-in-the-usa-and-latin-america,17534
*
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