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Ukraine Invasion Day 453: The pending counter-offensive by nine UKR modernized brigades must succeed [1]
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Date: 2023-05-21
Profits are to be had with the numerous fighter transfers as the F-16 could get sacrificed for the increase in production of the F-35.
x Ukraine to receive NATO transfer F16 4th generation fighter aircraft. US training for pilots. Very high performance. 1500 mph Mach 2. Ceiling above 50,000 feet. Range 500 miles with six 1000 lb bombs. Extremely versatile weapons and radar. Need 4 Squadrons. — Barry R McCaffrey (@mccaffreyr3) May 21, 2023
US has more than 1000 F16’s. Our Allied nations another 1000. Incredible air to air and ground capability. Ukrainians need max 6 months training to incorporate and sustain. Should call for trained F16 foreign volunteer pilots. Maintenance by contract.
ROE should include air to air combat of any Russian aircraft firing on Ukraine without geographical restriction. ROE should endorse attack of any Russian naval unit in the Black Sea firing on Ukraine.
F16’s are a complex and powerful tool that will help keep the peace in Ukraine when this criminal Putin invasion is finally defeated. They will not arrive until late Fall. A huge battle multiplier would be delivery of several hundred ATACM’s missiles NOW.
The key to military victory is the sudden application of overwhelming combined arms combat power with speed, violence, deception, and concentration of effort. NATO/US support has been measured, hesitant, modest in speed of delivery. Intimidated by Putin.
A tragedy to allow this Putin criminal operation to drag itself out for years. In the longer run Russia always loses…. economic, political, technology, diplomatic advantage overwhelmingly lies with the West. Need surge by the West not deliberation.
Bakhmut defense was brilliant operation by UKR. 100,000+ Russian killed and wounded. Great advantage to these courageous UKR infantry defending in a city. BUT PAINFUL. This was months of painful losses from massive Russian artillery.
The pending counter attack by nine UKR modernized brigades must succeed. Very difficult to achieve surprise which is crucial. When will the attack happen? Narrow point of penetration? Speed of exploitation? Deception plan? Deep strike targets?
• • •
x Remaining 28 F-16s from cancelled Netherlands deal could end up in Ukraine !
The Netherlands has changed its mind about selling 28 fourth-generation F-16 Fighting Falcon fighters to a private US company
By: Maksim Panasovskyi | 20.05.2023, 23:20
1/ — Walter Derzko (@SmartEconomy) May 21, 2023
The Netherlands has changed its mind about selling 28 fourth-generation F-16 Fighting Falcon fighters to a private US company
Draken International, a private company, will not be able to purchase a batch of F-16s. 2/
The Dutch government has cancelled the deal. This is reported by analysts at Oryxspioenkop.
Here's What We Know 3/
Draken International has signed a contract with the US government under which it acts as a contingent opponent during naval and air force exercises. It is also involved in pilot training. 4/
An American company wanted to buy 40 fourth-generation F-16 Fighting Falcon fighters from the Dutch Ministry of Defence. It received 12 aircraft last year. However, the Netherlands decided not to realize the option for 28 fighters. 5/
It is possible that these planes will eventually be handed over to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The day before, it became known that the US had approved the training of Ukrainian pilots and would not block the re-export of F-16s to Ukraine.
Source: @oryxspioenko 6/
US President Joe Biden stated on May 21 that the US will train Ukrainian pilots on fourth-generation aircraft, including F-16s, to augment Ukraine’s defense capabilities in the long term. Biden stated that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gave him a “flat assurance” that Ukrainian forces will not use Western-provided F-16s to strike Russian territory.[31] Biden reiterated that Ukraine will not use F-16s in its anticipated counteroffensive and framed the provision of F-16s as part of a longer-term effort to augment Ukraine’s defensive capabilities as Ukraine’s operational needs evolve.[32] Biden expanded on this argument, stating that the US did not pledge to send Ukraine tanks earlier because Ukraine did not need tanks earlier.[33] ISW has assessed that the need to send Ukraine Western tanks, including M1s, became apparent in June 2022.[34]
ISW previously assessed in January 2023 that delays in the provision to Ukraine of Western long-range fires systems, advanced air defense systems, and tanks have limited Ukraine’s ability to take advantage of opportunities for larger counter-offensive operations presented by flaws and failures in Russian military operations.[35] The inevitable delay between the pledge to send such systems and the Ukrainians’ ability to use them calls for the provision of such systems at the earliest indications that they will be required, not when the situation becomes dire.[36] Had Western leaders started setting conditions for Ukraine to use Western tanks in June 2022, when the first clear indicators appeared that Western tanks would be needed, Ukrainian forces would have been able to start using them in November or December. The continual delays in providing Western materiel when it became apparent that it is or will soon be needed have thus contributed to the protraction of the conflict.[37]
www.understandingwar.org/...
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